RenMac discusses whether global election trends will impact the U.S., the significantly different U.S. presidential election forecasts between 538 and the Economist, the improving inflation picture, why admission by omission suggests a September interest rate cut is likely, how oversold conditions are creating opportunities, and why things may be setting up nicely for a soft landing.

RenMac discusses the latest payroll print, the political impact of the Trump conviction one week later, the impact of lower yields, the global strength of utilities, and the big bull turn in China.

RenMac discusses the political impact of the Trump conviction, how growth isn’t getting away from the Fed, sentiment and the post momentum hang-over industries, and trends vs momentum in China.

RenMac discusses why the Nvidia phenomenon may have overshadowed some broader concerns, why the bond market was down on the PMI print, why the consensus is onsides now on growth, a high alert for housing, capitulation suggests softness in equities for 2024, little change in polls but big change in betting markets in 2024 presidential race. 

RenMac discusses how Biden agreed to debate on his terms, the encouraging inflation print, how much of Biden’s billions have been spent and what Trump could do with them, improving beta vs. average momentum, the peak in short rates, strong election year seasonality, and why China is looking like the U.S. in 2009.

RenMac discusses how the FDIC fallout may play out next week, the improvement in small banks, the consumer credit conundrum, the short rate risk/reward scenario, and the consumer momentum in China.

RenMac discusses the economic data dump this week, why the realized inflation data will be important, Powell’s case for weaker inflation, why the voters remain sour on the economy, whether Johnson will be removed as speaker now or after November, and the outlook for Chinese growth.

RenMac discusses the low GDP and high inflation reports, how volatile trade figures may have skewed the data to the downside, why the consensus is probably right about growth, the mean reversion in the battleground state polls, why the Supreme Court may delay the federal cases against Trump, how price may be driving sentiment, why you want to be long in the summer months in a presidential election year, what is driving the increase in the 10yr yields, and the relationship between Bitcoin and...

Jeff goes solo off-script to talk about the recent equity weakness, the things he looks for to call a tactical bottom and where we stand currently.

RenMac discusses the implications of the global gold rush led by central banks; why the latest inflation report still points to when, not if the Fed cuts interest rates; how a cooling labor market means consumers could struggle to absorb higher inflation; the risks Powell & Co. face in deciding to do (or not do); why the adage “sell in May and go away” doesn’t work; and how to take advantage of the summer trading months in a presidential election year.

RenMac discusses the bullish jobs number, why it might not keep the Fed from cutting in June, how it might send neutral rates higher, why No Labels ended up with no candidate and who benefits, how rising geopolitical risks are raising prices at the pump for voters, the impact of broader market participation, and why manufacturing is picking up.

RenMac discusses Fed Governor Waller’s comments, context, and contrast with Powell; reconciling GDI and GDP; Biden’s bump in the Bloomberg battleground state poll, and some evidence of the momentum trade unwinding.

RenMac discusses how Michigan may determine the 2024 presidential outcome and how it is driving Biden’s EV policies, why the six months of progress on inflation is outweighing the previous two months of setbacks for Powell & Co., June cut looking likely, the productivity paradox and how it takes time to realize the gains from AI, why a partial gov’t shutdown on Monday isn’t likely to happen, why the expansion of internal highs suggests a bull market, and how energy and materials are...

For nearly three decades, Ethan Harris was a fixture on Wall Street. After a stint at the New York Fed, Ethan went to Lehman Brothers where he served as the firm’s Chief US Economist. I had the good fortune of working for and learning from Ethan during his time as Head of Global Economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, from where he retired last year.Ethan is a wealth of knowledge, not only for his insights on the economy and Fed watching – but we also get into detail on how he approaches...

Neil and Steve welcome Kevin to the podcast to discuss Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s desire to replace Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the House vote to put TikTok on the clock, how China might retaliate against U.S. companies, what copper and commodities are saying, how the U.S. economic outperformance is benefiting Mexico and Canada, and why soft retail sales may not derail the overall solid US consumer story.

RenMac discusses how the payroll print is bullish for the soft-landing camp, why you should keep watching the unemployment number, how both parties saw what they wanted to in Biden’s SOTU, the takeaways from Powell’s testimony, why there is still momentum in the market, how gold is breaking out, and why you should be careful with sentiment. 

RenMac discusses the relief rally in response to inflation data coming in as expected, why a stronger economy doesn’t linearly map to inflation, how a May Fed cut could be underpriced, another gov’t can-kick, how Michigan sent warning signs to both candidates, whether Haley will still in after Super Tuesday, the firmness of global indices, and relative weakness in utilities and staples.

Howard joins Jeff and Steve to discuss the depressing U.S. debt outlook from the CBO, how the transformation of Japan’s economy is impacting global markets, the pace of the Fed slowing quantitative tightening, the need to monitor the impact of 10yr yields on equities, why a lower level of bank reserves is an important indicator, why one should be careful of the Nvidia impact on the broader market moving forward, how contraction can lead to vulnerability, why biotech may present better buying...

RenMac discusses the volatility around the recent economic data, moderating inflation expectations, the correlation between air freight and industrial production, the crowded calendar that awaits Congress when it returns, why Neil wasn’t impressed with his Moscow grocery experience, what is and is not a momentum market, and whether bond yields are a better buy now or later.

RenMac discusses the good, bad, and ugly for Biden in the Special Counsel report, Neil’s affinity for pop culture, how stronger productivity may be keeping inflation under control, why China may be so bad that it is good, the limited U.S. exposure to FX risk from China, and whether presidential race odds are influencing the S&P.

RenMac discusses why the flukey payroll report may reduce the Fed’s sense of urgency, why the weather mattered in January, how a boost in productivity may also be a boost to earnings, how employment is more of a byproduct of a strong economy than a cause, whether the disconnect between economists and voters on the Biden economy is narrowing, why the Jan. 6th trial may be the one that could move voters, polling context, why Michigan matters, and whether consolidation can be contained.

RenMac discusses Nikki Haley’s prospects, Trump’s Veep-stakes, how voters are viewing an improving economy, the path of least resistance, why Tesla is starting to crack, whether homebuilders should be worried, how pockets of tech options could be concerning, and why Chinese tech sentiment may be setting up nicely.

RenMac discusses why Nikki Haley’s path to the presidency beyond NH is not a bright one, how better than expected retail sales and residential housing figures suggest a strong economic outlook, the great debate over when and how much the Fed will cut interest rates, why Fed Governor Waller is not riding the team transitory train, why the weakness in materials is good news not bad news, and why conditions are looking good for small caps.

RenMac discusses why markets shrugged off the latest CPI miss, how the Fed places more emphasis on the PCE, why data may be driving the Fed more than politics, why U.S. bonds are more bullish than elsewhere, how more states resemble IA than NH in the GOP Primary, the importance of Taiwan’s presidential election, the parallels between the 1970s and today, and SEC chair Gary Gensler’s reluctant Bitcoin ETF approval.