Episodes
This week our star kicks activity into high gear with some fast-growing active regions in Earth view. One of these taking center stage is Region 3883, which has fired multiple big flares and launched a very dense solar storm that looks to have an Earth-directed component. If this storm grazes Earth, as the models
Published 11/06/24
Our Sun launched multiple Earth-directed solar storms towards Earth this week, with the first one hitting us just now (it is fashionably late). The second will likely hit late on September 12 and be followed by some fast solar wind. This means aurora photographers could be in for an extended show from about now
Published 09/13/24
Although we are calming down from several solar storms that hit back to back over the past week and gave us some decent aurora, our Sun isn't calming down. We have four active regions that are about to rotate into Earth view that have been firing big flares and launching solar storms on the
Published 09/02/24
This week our Sun stays active but has terrible aim. Earth has dodged at least four solar storms launched off the Earth-facing Sun. The only expected impact will be from some fast solar wind over the next couple of days, but that shouldn't cause too much trouble for radio amateurs participating in "Field Day"
Published 06/20/24
This week our Sun sends the bulk of activity to the farside. Region 3697 continues to launch strong events, but they are hammering Mars instead of Earth this week. At our planet, we are dealing with low-level radio blackouts from Region 3712 and a few mini solar storms, but we have one mystery. There
Published 06/17/24
Our Sun decides to play a prank on us by launching a far sided solar storm at the same time Region 3697 on the front sided Sun fired off an X-class flare. The combination of events caused many would-be forecasters to assume we had a strong solar storm headed towards us again, just like
Published 06/06/24
This week all eyes are on the Sun as old Region 3664 (now renumbered Region 3697) returns to Earth-view. This region has already launched an X-class flare (possibly higher than an X4!) before it fully has rotated into view on the East limb. Although, I doubt it will repeat the same intensity of solar
Published 05/29/24
The first solar storm in this train has hit! The storm is quite fast so the initial impact caused a momentary G4-level response. Radiation Storm and Polar Aviation 5-Day Outlook 00:18:29 | Summary Right now we are sitting at G3+ levels due to a strong, but wildly fluctuating magnetic field. This is expected while
Published 05/10/24
This week our Sun decides to show us how busy things can get during solar maximum. We have 18 sunspot clusters in Earth-view, including multiple big-flare players that are making a lot of noise on the dayside radio bands. Luckily, the numerous radio blackouts are mostly short-lived and only at the R1-level so they
Published 04/24/24
This week our Sun kicks activity into high gear with multiple solar storm launches, including one that is Earth-directed. Although not a direct hit, it could bring aurora to mid-latitudes for a short while starting March 20. In addition, we have a whole cluster of active regions rotating into Earth-view. Several of these are
Published 03/18/24
We have a lot of filaments and new active regions in Earth-view this week and although we havent had much in the way of flare activity, things are picking up. In fact, a partly Earth-directed solar storm is on its way to earth and could give us some aurora by March 9th. Aurora photographers
Published 03/09/24
Our Sun has gotten busy this week firing multiple X-class flares including the largest of this cycle thus far. All the noise is due to Region 3590, which has been actively firing flares even before it rotated into Earth view. Amateur radio operators, aviators, and GPS users are dealing with R2 and R3-level radio
Published 02/26/24
Our Sun has gotten so busy over the past week that I have had to update this forecast three times before releasing it to the public! This week our Sun has fired no less than seven mid-to-high M-class flares along with an X-class flare and has launched at least three Earth-directed solar storms. This
Published 02/14/24
We have four, back-to-back solar storms on their way to Earth. The first is expected to hit Monday the 22nd (although I suspect it will arrive fashionably late). The second will be right on its heels and enhance the first. These first two storms will be the ones that drive aurora down to mid-latitudes
Published 01/22/24
This week our Sun is beginning to ramp up activity due to a bunch of new regions rotating into view. At least seven new active regions have rotated into view over the last few days. We will be watching them very closely, as some of them are showing signs of increased flare activity. Amateur
Published 01/14/24
This week our Sun steps into high gear. We have multiple glancing solar storm blows along with a pocket of fast solar wind on its way. Aurora photographers at high latitudes should get a nice show, but it may not be enough for mid-latitude photographers. That being said, with active regions 3511 and 3513
Published 12/10/23
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone! Im on the road this week, but our Sun is hard at work! Activity is picking up, big time. We have no less than 11 active regions in Earth-view right now with more rotating into view over the next few days. Several of these are X-flare players, which means lots of
Published 11/25/23
This week our Sun continues a moderate level of activity. Region 3473, as it was just rotating into Earth view, launched a massive solar storm, which is grazing Earth now. Along with some fast solar wind from a large coronal hole these bumpy conditions have caused aurora visible at high latitudes. Views at mid-latitudes
Published 11/01/23
Our Sun remains active, launching no less than four solar storms in our general direction, but most of these are wispy and will have a soft landing at Earth. At least one of these storms is already impacting Earth, bringing aurora to high latitudes. However, aurora photographers at mid-latitudes will likely have to wait
Published 10/20/23
You might notice something different. This forecast is the first in a new "broadcast style" of delivery I am developing. It was recorded live with interactive graphics and only minor editing. As such, it has a totally different feel (along with a few audio errors that I am still working out). Stay tuned as
Published 10/12/23
This week solar activity increases Earthside with several solar storm launches that could give us a glancing blow followed by a fast wind chaser. Although not very strong, the combination of these three things could enhance effects enough to give us some aurora. Aurora photographers, especially at high latitudes could get some nice views
Published 08/24/23
This week much of the activity is on the farside of the Sun, giving us a much needed break. After the multiple X-class flares and G3-level solar storm we sure can use it! That being said, we do have a large coronal hole that will be rotating through the Earth-strike zone over the next
Published 08/14/23
This week our Sun kicks into high gear launching a train of solar storms towards Earth. The first two should arrive on August 4th with a third arriving early to midday August 5th. We will likely bump up to G1 storm levels, with activity peaking on the 5th, but lasting possibly through the 6th
Published 08/04/23
This week, the big events are focused on the Sun's farside, but we still have quite a bit of activity facing Earth, including an Earth-directed solar storm. Sadly, nothing spoils a good aurora forecast like a solar storm hitting early. Even though NASA and NOAA predicted the arrival on July 26, the storm had
Published 07/27/23