The commonly accepted wisdom is that if we want a glimpse into the future of South Africa’s financial services sector, we should take a look at the United Kingdom’s financial landscape and delay the experience by a few years. In this conversation, Dan Brocklebank, UK head of our offshore partner, Orbis, joins portfolio manager Jithen Pillay to explain how key themes, such as tighter regulation, artificial intelligence and increasing geopolitical tension, are shaping the future of asset...

With 2024 set to be a news-heavy year, investors are speculating about everything from what interest rates might do next, to the outcome of elections around the world. Given the levels of uncertainty, many are finding it hard to avoid panicking and making rash decisions based on emotions. Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker is joined by renowned behavioural psychology expert and bestselling author Morgan Housel. In the conversation, Morgan explores many of the behavioural biases that erode...

The Investment teams at Allan Gray and Orbis have both been talking about the huge disparities in global valuations for some time. There are pockets of the market that are incredibly cheap, but many of the most popular regions and sectors are eye-wateringly expensive. For a moment last year, it seemed as though these disparities were beginning to narrow amid rising inflation and subsequent interest rate hikes. But in 2023, things snapped back. Bond yields have risen sharply, while the areas...

When it comes to investing, marginal improvements can make a significant difference to investment returns over time. James Aitken, the founder of Aitken Advisors, has spent three decades gaining a deep understanding of the global financial system’s plumbing. He has carefully studied markets and investors to identify the subtle differences that can help us become “a little less wrong” and produce meaningfully better outcomes over time. In conversation with Allan Gray’s chief investment...

Buoyed by the ongoing excitement around artificial intelligence, the so-called “magnificent seven” (Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, MSFT, Nvidia and Tesla) have been able to count themselves among this year’s biggest winners. And it is easy to understand why: They are great businesses at the forefront of the latest tech developments, and they are expected to deliver exceptional growth. That said, history reminds us that it is exceptionally hard to exceed high expectations over the long term –...

Over the last five years, deteriorating domestic conditions and rapidly developing global trends have seen some well-known stocks, and even entire industries and markets, fall in and out of favour. From Ramaphoria and the COVID-19 pandemic, to the collapse of Steinhoff and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, investors have been tasked with figuring out who the winners might be in a very complex environment. In conversation with investment analyst Siphesihle Zwane, portfolio manager Jacques Plaut...

Companies, and their shareholders, are facing increasing levels of scrutiny from the media, activists and the public for the impact they have on the environment and society. As we consider many of the recent headline-grabbing corporate failures, it becomes clear that companies that fail to consider and manage environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors often prove to be poor investments and destroy shareholder value over the long term. In conversation with Nshalati Hlungwane, a manager...

In conversation with portfolio manager Rory Kutisker-Jacobson, Matthew Spencer from our offshore partner, Orbis, explains why the investment team believes that the stock market boom over the last few years is making way for a global stockpicker’s paradise. As the deflation of the “Everything Bubble” continues, long-term investors who remain focused on understanding the fundamentals of the companies they invest in are well placed to be rewarded in years to come. In an effort to make sense of...

From persistent loadshedding to deteriorating national infrastructure, South Africa’s challenges are well known. The recurring negative headlines have prompted many investors to look into increasing their offshore exposure as they ask themselves whether investing in the local market is still worth the risk. In conversation with portfolio manager Tim Acker, investment analysts Siphesihle Zwane and Jithen Pillay discuss the impact of the major local challenges on various industries. They share...

As memories of masks and lockdown restrictions fade, investors face a new list of challenges. Locally, loadshedding has eroded business margins and is casting a shadow on the market. Abroad, the threat of a new banking crisis has proven extremely unsettling and is having a negative impact on sentiment. In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio manager Thalia Petousis and Sandy McGregor, the longest-serving member of the Allan Gray Investment team, reflect on a range of...

2022 will probably be remembered for being the year of war and inflation, and the end of a decade of “free money” distorting markets. To put it in perspective, a passive 60:40 offshore balanced fund delivered probably its worst performance in US dollars in 100 years, sending a clear message to investors: Things have changed. Allan Gray chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, joins Tamryn Lamb, head of Retail, to unpack why the year was a turning point for markets and trends. They cover...

Although banks are generally geared to economic activity, many local banks proved to be resilient through the COVID-19 pandemic and have been good investments since. But in the current period of high global inflation and slowing economic activity, how will the local banking sector fare? Are there still long-term opportunities? Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker poses this question to investment analysts Pieter Koornhof and Siphesihle Zwane, who have spent time researching some of the...

Retirement reform is on the horizon as the National Treasury takes steps to implement the proposed “two-pot retirement system”. The proposed system has the dual aim of creating limited access to retirement fund assets to help savers cope with short-term emergencies and improving the preservation of retirement savings – ultimately producing better retirement saving outcomes. Allan Gray’s head of Assurance, Richard Carter, joins Umbrella Fund specialist Mica Townsend to discuss the challenges...

In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, hosted by Allan Gray portfolio manager Rory Kutisker-Jacobson, Dan Brocklebank, head of Orbis UK, reflects on the most valuable investment truths he has learnt as he celebrates two decades at the firm. Dan joined our offshore partner during the dotcom boom and has seen our shared investment philosophy play out through multiple cycles. During the conversation, he explains how Orbis thinks about investing in an environment shaped by rising...

Investors in commodity miners and producers have found themselves in one of the better places in the market since the pandemic, owing partly to a lift in demand as countries embarked on stimulus programmes and supply-side constraints keeping a lid on production. Local mining shares were one of the key driving forces behind the FTSE/JSE All Share Index hitting a new high earlier this year. As local investors, we think we are pretty well-versed in analysing and valuing commodity producers, but...

South African inflation just hit its highest peak since 2009, as it accelerated to 7.4% in June, in line with the global trend. Over in the US, inflation reached a four-decade high of 9.1% last month. As households around the world grapple with rising food and fuel costs, central banks are faced with the difficult task of hiking interest rates to rein in inflation. Allan Gray portfolio manager Sandy McGregor started his career in the 1970s when, much like today, the world was facing rampant...

From the global technology stock sell-off and rising inflation, to the war in Ukraine exacerbating a global energy crisis, investors are tasked with navigating an increasingly complex and volatile environment. In the first episode of the Allan Gray podcast, Tamryn Lamb hosts a conversation with Allan Gray’s chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, and Alec Cutler, portfolio manager at our offshore partner, Orbis. Delving into many of the critical issues shaping the environment, they explain...