Want a detailed analysis of Tuesday's red wave but don't know whose to take to the bank? Why not give a listen to the guy who boldly predicted the results? That's right, our own Henry Olsen got it about as right as could be! So this week's episode is an all-rant breakdown of who voted which way, why they went there, and what to expect from voters and the parties beyond 2024.  P.S. Henry's off next week, but be sure to stay subscribed to Beyond the Polls (or hop on if you haven't already),...

Henry’s guest for the final pre-election episode of the season has covered political campaigns for quite some time. But he’s never seen anything like the election we’re looking at today. Brit Hume and Henry discuss how the game has changed since they started: covering everything from the new media landscape, marked by a turn from the standard of neutrality to polling in the age of models, along with the fiercely divided electorate and these once-unimaginable candidates. Plus, Henry rants...

The Harris Campaign is pulling out all the stops to edge out Donald Trump in what looks set to be the closest election since 2000. Lately, these efforts have concentrated on energizing enthusiasm among black voters. To discuss the alleged inroads made by Republicans with this group and to consider whether Democrats can hold onto their usual 90+ percent hold, Henry is joined by his pal Eugene Robinson, Pulitzer Prize winning columnist of the Washington Post. They also take a couple of pit...

We may be three weeks from Election Day, but votes are already being cast. To get a handle on what's going on, Henry sits down with the foremost early voting expert, Michael McDonald of the University of Florida. They go into the history of the accommodation and the trends of both the methods' expansion, along with the changes in how Democrats and Republicans are using the available options. They also get into the rule differences among the swing states that will affect how the returns come...

Don’t count the Badger State out. It’s very much in play, but keeping up with moving parts and pieces can be downright dizzying. Craig Gilbert of Marquette Law School and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel joins Henry to properly orient us to a state with Obama-Trump voters in the West, Anti-Trump Republicans in the suburbs, and one oh-so-narrow Senate race. Plus, Mr. Olsen finally has some company to spread the news about the Republican Party’s novel voter identification edge. He breaks down...

Wall Street Journal's Gerard Baker joins Henry to consider how J.D. Vance's debate performance might have given us a glimpse of post-Trump populism, and they discuss how Trump and Harris might win undecided voters by sticking to their (wildly different) campaigning guns. Plus, Henry draws our attention to three far-flung disturbances that have the potential to form into great October surprises; and he takes a close look at two competing ads aimed at defining PA senatorial candidate Dave...

Selena Zito joins Henry today to talk about the all-important Keystone State. They discuss the voter sentiment shift that occurred between Obama's ten-point win in 2008 and Trump's narrow victory in 2016. They home in on the counties that will decide who takes Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes, and consider how Kamala Harris's slight lead in the polls might be overstated.  Plus, Henry dives into the early voting numbers thus far. Is much ado being made about just a little? Tune in for big...

In the era of the perpetual campaign, debates don't move the polls like they used to. But Henry breaks down how, in a presidential race as tight as this, Kamala Harris' victory on Tuesday night may move the needle one or two points in a race where one or two points makes all the difference.  Then, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball joins to give an update on the key House and Senate races. He and Henry play out hypothetical scenarios on how a narrow Trump or Harris win in toss-up districts...

Upon gaining the Democratic Party's nomination, Kamala Harris's favorability rating surged from below her boss's historic low to nearly 50 percent today. But did the swell come too soon? Fox News Radio analyst and Editor-in-Chief of Jewish Insider Josh Kraushaar joins to discuss the post-convention slump, along with a review of how the lingering war in Gaza and unsettling chatter from extreme partisans might affect the Jewish vote in November. Plus, Henry gives special attention to a recent...

Since the 2020 election, American political observers have heard a great deal about voter fraud. But media coverage tends to either enthusiastically endorse or vehemently dismiss the accusations without parsing out the details of what’s being alleged. Today’s guest, Arizona elections analyst Garrett Archer, takes us through the process that occurs between your submitting a ballot and its tallying. He and Henry get into the weeds on everything from signature verification and speculation about...

Today’s guest, Jeff Roe—who’s been dubbed “the next Karl Rove”—grew up on a hog farm and is the founder of Axiom Strategies, a renowned Republican consulting firm. Guess which trade he thinks is dirtier? He joins Henry to give us the insider’s take on the practical realities of campaign strategy, past, present and future. Plus, as the DNC comes to a close, Henry asks the multi-million dollar question: Does this show really matter anymore?

In Alaska's 2022 special election, candidates as varied as Sarah Palin and Mary Peltola to Santa Claus were on the ballot. That year was also unique for offering ranked-choice voting, allowing conflicted residents to cast as many as four picks with descending weight. In November, both the incumbent Peltola and the ranked-choice repeal initiative are on the ballot, so Henry recruits the Alaska Beacon's James Brooks to give us a tour of the vast electoral wilderness.  Plus, Henry wonders about...

The tickets are set, and Americans are looking at a stark choice between two very different futures. Henry is joined by Michael Podhorzer — former political director of the AFL-CIO and author of the Weekend Reading substack. The two dive into the campaign framing between a MAGA or normal election that past polling shows will all but guarantee the outcome in November.  Plus, Henry rants on what Tim Walz's selection tells us about the Harris campaign; and he takes a look at Ohio Democrat...

With Joe Biden's decision to drop out from the presidential race, the Democratic Party has been forced to improvise. But there's a method to what looks like madness! Joining Henry today is the Brookings Institution's Elaine Kamarck — author of Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates. Tune in for an in-depth discussion on the process that will straighten out the party's predicament. Plus, Henry considers how Kamala Harris's...

The tectonic shakeup in American politics continues, as Joe Biden bows out and Kamala Harris appears positioned as Democratic heir apparent. Henry digs into the challenges she faces as a well-known figure with high unfavorability, and considers how she might attempt to expand her appeal. Next, Daniel Scarpinato joins to assess the key primaries in the ever-interesting Grand Canyon State. They break down the fight among Democrats to defeat David Schweikert in AZ 1, the Republican scrap to...

It’s been a wicked googly of a week in American politics! To start, Henry appraises how the polls might be affected by both the attempt on Trump’s life and the announcement of an all-outsider ticket, with J.D. Vance in the VP slot. Next, he and Michael Dimock (president of the Pew Research Center) delve into the process of crafting public opinion polls that pin down the perplexing array of citizen sentiments. Lastly, he takes a look at another ad of the week — this time from a problem-solving...

Washington's worst-kept secret is out: Joe Biden is not up to the job he's campaigning for. Today's guest is former White House Press Secretary and Fox News host Dana Perino. No stranger to balancing the priorities of the nation's inquiring minds with those of the administration, she joins Henry to discuss a presidential fiasco like no other we've ever seen.  Plus, Henry digs into the debate that finally got Democrats talking about Biden's decline; considers how down-ballot candidates will...

After 14 years at the helm, the polls tell us the British Tories are facing a slaughter on Thursday. To get at the party’s collapse, Henry hops across the pond to discuss British politics with a couple of swell chaps. First up is The Times’ Tim Montgomerie, who covers the post-Brexit smashing victory and the subsequent failure to deliver to the new coalition. Then Matthew Goodwin joins to dig into the rise of Nigel Farage, UKIP, and the Reform Party’s challenge to the status quo. And if...

If you want to win an election, you gotta campaign. And to campaign, you gotta get a lotta dough! This week Henry chats with R. Rebecca Donatelli, founder of Campaign Solutions, for a deep dive into the world of online political fundraising.  Plus, Henry rants ahead of a debate that (we're told) won't change anybody's mind. And he breaks down a big introduction ad for a newcomer candidate who hopes to take Kansas 2.

Chuck Warren of the Breaking Battlegrounds Podcast joins Henry for a close inspection of the ever-interesting state of Utah. They get into the characteristics that make it a red state like no other as they dig into the primaries for Mitt Romney's Senate seat and congressional districts 2 and 3.   Plus, Henry takes a look at Trump's sustained lead in the polls; later he compares the ad strategies of South Carolina CD 3 primary candidates Mark Burns and Sheri Biggs.

J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, returns to peer into the contested primaries in Virginia's 5th, 7th and 10th congressional districts. These deep dives into the respectively red, purple and blue territories, Coleman and Henry survey this microcosm of the national stage.  Plus, Henry unpacks Emmanuel Macron's snap election gamble to head off his populist archfoe Marine Le Pen; and he looks at two finely crafted ads for Democrat Mary Peltola's tough reelection bid...

The verdict is in but it's still early to tell exactly what it means for Donald Trump's bid to take back the White House. To weigh the possibilities, The Federalist's Mollie Hemingway joins Henry. They also cover Joe Biden's innumerable vulnerabilities to an electorate whose minds may remain unchanged; they parse through the criteria Trump might consider for his VP pick; and appraise the conservative brand in the counter-revolutionary era.  Plus, Henry takes a close look at Josh Stein's ad...

 Cook Political Report's Amy Walter returns to the podcast to break down the latest findings from her 2024 Swing State Project. She explains voters' thoughts and expectations on the economy; provides analysis of the low Undecided/high third party numbers; and offers her take on the Democrats' scramble to keep its diverse base on the party premises. Plus, Henry dives into a multi-decadal series of "Right Direction/Wrong Track" polling results to give us a sense of what it might mean for...

As Donald Trump leads on the backstretch of the 2024 presidential race, Biden makes use of his whip, challenging his opponent to an unconventional debate. Henry takes a deep dive into this necessary bold strategy. Then he's joined by NBC's national political correspondent Steve Kornacki. The two discuss the president's failure to gain traction as Trump maintains momentum.  Plus, Henry takes a close look at two ads for Tony Gonzalez — one from his campaign, the other from the RCJ SuperPac —...