CPI Inflation clocks in hotter than expected, with more data to come; car insurance inflation is an out-of-the-blue surprise (unless you recently renewed your policy!) What does the Fed do next? Markets are pricing-in NO rate cuts in June...and maybe not at all this year. Markets trace the 20-DMA, building a rounded top as momentum slows; beginning to confirm a take-down of the 20-DMA. Economic growth is slowing; insurance inflation spike "smells like" an adjustment; it's a lagging indicator....

Last year's market rally amid the AI chase and hopefulness for Fed rate cuts tracked right along a narrow channel around the 20-DMA. Then came Summer, and a market correction that hit in October. Markets formed a rounded top during that action, which is what we're beginning to see currently. Markets have operated similarly in a defined range along the 20-DMA and are now developing another rounded-top as the market starts to lose momentum. Theoretically, markets could take out last Thursday's...

It's CPI Day (with m/m inflation clocking in with a .4% increase, and a y/y gain to 3.8%, hotter than expected). Sheila Jackson-Lee's science experiment; the NFIB Survey does not bode well for small businesses:Sentiment falls to a new low based on poor sales. There remains a dichotomy between headline economic news and what's happening behind the scenes. Markets break below the 20-DMA, but regain support. Why what really matters is the data the Fed looks at. Portfolio Spring Cleaning; Five or...

Markets continue to hang onto support at the 20-DMA by its fingertips. Expectations are for a .3% increase in inflation last month. (There's a mini-scandal swirling over the BLS releasing the data early to a few select banks.) [This report was recorded before the release of inflation numbers, up .3% m/m and up 3.8% y/y.] The change in calculating rent inflation raises the question of whether we're measuring the data or just manipulating it. A weak print will put us back on track of the 20-DMA...

Some are disappointed the eclipse did not herald the Rapture; markets are holding firm at 20-DMA. NFIB preview vs CEO Confidence; why small business' mood matters. Interest Rates in different states; no change in bullish market trend (why not to knee-jerk react to market); but trend weakness is become more apparent. Consumer confidence vs Valuation (w/charts); why margin debt is like dynamite. Correction is coming, and will feel worse due to greed. The cost of margin debt as rates rise....

Our advice to NOT have a knee-jerk reaction to last Thursday's markets dip below the 20-DMA was well founded, as markets were able to hold on to that support. As of this moment, last week's break in the 20-DMA has been negated: There has been no change in the markets' bullish trend. A key clue may be a decline in price momentum, however. What we need to watch for now is a close this week below the 20-DMA, which would confirm this weakness. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance...

Eclipse-mania is out of control. Fed speakers confirm they'll cut rates, but in no rush to do so. Jobs numbers tantalize markets; the impact of immigration on employment. Boomers & Gen-Z plans to splurge on groceries in 2024. Markets takeout the 20-DMA; will the break be confirmed this week? Putting Inflation into proper perspective; the three measures of inflation. The economic basics of Supply & Demand (and their impact on inflation). Your personal inflation is not the same as mine....

The mood in the markets for the past few months has been, so long as we're on the 20-DMA, don't worry about it; markets just keep going up. Well...on Thursday, markets took out the 20-DMA, then rallied on Friday to sit right on it. Today's market activity will technically be a test of that support. The 20-DMA has been consistent  support for markets ever since the lows of November. So, this week is a "defining moment" for markets: Buybacks are in blackout for the next three weeks. Markets...

Market and economic data preview: How to respond in current environment. The U.S. is still the best house in a bad neighborhood. Fed folks now saying it's possible to have no rate cuts this year. Are you really ready for Tax Day? Danny & Jonathan run through some tips and strategies. The advantages and distinctions of IRA's vs Roth's: Tax liability now or later? What are the odds of taxes going up in the future? How to handle being retired and going back to work. How does this affect...

In this week's Fedapolooza, Fed spokespersons seem to be growing less hawkish about rates. Inflation is simply a function of supply & demand. There is a high correlation between GDP/CPI and interest rates. When inflation comes down, so will rates. Watching tomorrow's employment report: ADP is a poor predictor of BLS data. The Bernie Madoff trendline remains intact in markets; bullish sentiment is very high; bear sightings on Wall Street are rare. Technical trends of inflation are falling...

The Bernie Madoff Trendline remains in place: Monday and Tuesday's selloffs were followed by Wednesday's recovery after bouncing off the 20-DMA trendline. The buying algo's kicked in to buy thie dips. Bullish sentiment is very high; there have been few bear sightings on Wall Street, of late. Margin debt is back on the rise, as well, which is also supportive of rising asset prices. Volatility remains extremely low. There is no concern, no risk, and much investor complacency.    Hosted by RIA...

The JOLTS survey rate continues to slow, coincident with a slowing economy; interestingly, retail hiring has dropped sharply, despite increased retail demand (another example of divergent indicators). The data might not be as strong as we think. The difference between Fed promises and predictions can be vast. Markets remain in a "perfect" trend channel; what happens when the 20-DMA is broken? Commentary on the coming solar eclipse, and markets' historic behavior following. What matters is...

Markets have been in a "perfect trend channel" for months, the top of which runs right along the 20-DMA. Today will be a test of this phenomenon again. Just because we may violate the 20-DMA does not mean to go out and sell everything. The subsequent rally needs to fail, and we need to see a confirmation of a break of the 20-DMA before taking any action. So if, on Friday, we are below the 20-DMA, and fail to get back above it, we will then have a better warning sign of the unstoppable rally...

Markets delivered a post-April Fool's drop, while manufacturing metrics moved back into the expansion zone. Markets have now dropped the chances of a June interest rate cut to 50%; markets continue to trade in a particular range. The April 15 Tax Day bump may not materialize this year with the expiration of previous tax law. Gold is on a catch-up trade; will rotation trades continue? Investor sentiment remains high. The bullishness of Ken Fisher; Gains vs Declines: Market Math explained. The...

Markets have been trading within a particular range; their ability to break above that range may be impacted by the outcome of April 15, with previous tax laws expiring: More Americans are going to find they owe taxes, meaning less money to invest. Gold has been on a tear over the past month, part of the catch-up trade that commenced around mid-March. We've sen similar rotational behavior in Bitcoin and other assets in defensive sectors (think, Utilities). Will the rotation trade continue in...

PCE Inflation is weaker, yet consumer spending remains robust; the Atlanta Fed is forecasting 2.3% GDP for Q2. Is this period nirvana for the Fed? The Relative Strength Index is stuck at 70.  Markets continue a low-volatility advance, seemingly floating higher. The current environment typically leads to market correction. The next round of earnings commences next week; it will be unsurprising that to see a high percentage of companies “beat” Wall Street estimates. (The high beat rate is...

Markets continue in a low volatility advance and could set another all-time high today. Markets are tending to be "floating higher," with little to deter investors. Economic data continues to come in in line with expectations, and there's no "stress' in terms of the markets; credit spreads remain exceptionally bullish. There's no sign of risk in the market, currently. Volatility has dropped down below 13 on the VIX; professional investors are running at 103% of allocations. This type of...

Consumer confidence for stock prices remains high, despite mixed econonic data. Asset prices are rising faster than earnings, as optimism is extremely elevated. Equal Weight Index is underperforming the S&P; Bond prices are improving. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t appreciate the difference between financial and borrowing conditions, we must assume most investors do not either.  The current combination of easy financial conditions and tight borrowing conditions makes monetary...

The Equal Weight Index has begun gaining traction, closing the gap with the S&P.  Mid-caps have actually out-paced the Equal Weight Index, but still lags the S&P. Small-caps are the biggest laggard, still. Bonds have been picking up in price nicely of late, pushing up above a clustering of moving averages, creating a bullish set up for bond prices. We think bonds have a little more work to do because of what's going on with the Fed and inflation, but the set-up appears to be much...

The Sentiment Index is hanging in, despite weakening regional surveys; economists see no recession in sight; bank reserves have been rising since October 2022. End of quarter rebalancing is generating some activity; after three-days of selling, market futures are positive this morning. Watch markets' steep angle of ascent; this is not sustainable, and correction will result sooner or later. Lance's unique inflation indicator... Markets still act like there's a flood of liquidity when there's...

The end of the month of March marks another round of quarterly rebalancing in portfolios. Markets have remained within a well-defined trend channel for the past few weeks. After selling off for ther past three days, futures this morning are pointing a little higher. The markets' angle of ascent continues to be very steep, which is, ultimately, unsustainable. This is a sign of market exhaustion, with all the buyers in the market. Volatility remains low because investors do not perceive any...

Baltimore Harbor is closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, hit by an out of control freighter. Weaker Regional Economic Surveys are in contrast to economists ratcheting-up growth expectations: No one is expecting a recession. Liquidity continues to boost bullish mood on Wall Street. The market has steadily climbed for past 5-months, creating record deviations; for now, no fear. Valuations are a measure of market psychology: "If everybody has bought, who is left to...

Markets have scored very positive returns over the past five months. When markets are so deviated from the 200-DMA, ultimately, they will connect back down to that average. We've been here before. Statistically speaking, when the markets have been positive for five months, odds are the year will end on a positive note. The devil is in the details, and what happens between now and then. Despite the longevity of a bull run, markets will always revert to the mean. The market psychology and...

Stop the re-makes of '80's movies (Roadhouse)! Markets are going into 5th straight month of gains, remaining over-bought and trading in a very narrowly-defined trend channel. Money going into cryptocurrency (Memecoin) is indicative of late-cycle market speculative mood. The Coffee Maker saga continues; Market Bubble Psychology: What defines a market bubble. No two market bubbles are a like (w charts). The Fed's Dot Plots are worthless. How will the latest CR be funded? (More debt.) The...

Markets have had a very strong advance over the past 21-weeks. The one thing we keep paying attention to is the indicator of the convergence/divergence line, which has been stuck at a very high level. It is highly unusual that markets have been this complacent for so long. That will end at some point; the question is what will end it, and when?? Markets beginning to add breadth is an encouraging sign, but complacency is still a concern. Meanwhile, more speculative activity is beginning to...