Halloween preview & earnings parade; pre-election bond market auction action. Markets are hedging a bit ahead of elections. The latest JOLTS report was weaker than expected - more evidence of a slowing economy? Meanwhile, consumer confidence continues to confound, bouncing up in the latest Conference Board Confidence Index reading, especially for forward expectations for stock prices into 2025. Lance reviews International, Emerging Markets, and Dollar performance. Markets "are not doing...

The Conference Board's latest Consumer Confidence Survey shows an increase in consumer confidence, a nice bounce from the recent downtrend; both present and future expectation metrics increased. The overall survey remains low, but surprisingly, consumer confidence in stock prices over the next year is at an all-time high. Accordingly, markets continue to hold on around the 20-DMA. No one is really willing to buy or sell right now. In International Markets, not a lot going on, either. Emerging...

A barrage of earnings reports this week reveals companies are beating lowered expectations, and revenue is down. McDonald's foot traffic is off (and interesting economic barometer); the story is surely unfolding of an economy that is slowing down. What do markets sell signals tell us? There are two ways for markets to correct: Consolidation, or pull back in prices. Lance rants on the realities of stock buy backs, and a sidebar from Jonathan on coffee habits; How will markets behave if the...

Markets continue to do their thing, still sitting on a sell signal, which is limiting upside. How can markets move up while under a sell signal? Sell signals don't necessarily mean markets correct, it just means markets don't go anywhere. Sell signals simply suggest there are more buyers than sellers, and things are beginning to slow down. Markets can correct in two ways: Either in consolidation or in a pullback in pricing. The 20-DMA continues to acts as very good support; this consolidation...

Wrapping up the Month of October and beginning the strongest period for markets, November - April; what could throw a wrench into the works? (How about an election upset?) Markets are positioning for a specific, anticipated outcome. Life with the Roberts': Child #4 accepted at Baylor! The Halloween dress-rehearsal. Markets' positioning for election outcome: What if...? Market risks to election outcome. Treasury Bonds are the best set up for election upset; there are decent opportunities to go...

Markets have begun positioning for the winner of the 2024 Election. What we don't know for certain is who that winner will be...but trading actions we can see are clearly pointing to a win by a particular candidate by their positioning in certain groups of companies that would benefit from policies the winner might implement. Meanwhile, the S&P continues to grind its way higher, on a nice, upward trajectory ever since September. The 20-DMA is acting as a good trendline indicator for the...

Gold Fish are changing their name to Chilean Sea Bass, and Spam will henceforth be known as Filet Mignon; the world has gone awry, and Richard & Jonathan discuss the surprise results from Tesla, Polymarket odds for the 2024 Election, and goal scooping and setting expectations for 2025. Richard compares the Saudi's newest, biggest building in the world to the Tiny Homes trend, and Gen-Z's housing preferences (No car, no garage = no problem!) The Atlanta Fed's Home Ownership Affordability...

The Conference Board's Economic Surprise Index gauges exactly that: How surprised economists are when things don't pan out as they expected. Like the economy doing better than they think it ought, under the current conditions. Economists are setting themselves up for disappointment; more Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck. Lance and Michael discuss market psychology and a subset of PTSD known as memory inflation: Things were better (or worse) than they actually were, which is affecting...

We've been noting a rising wedge pattern in the markets, and on Wednesday markets broke out of that to the downside. The good news is that markets came down to the 20-DMA, tested, and held. So the first level of support is holding; the next level will be at around 5,650, which is the 50-DMA, so risk of additional correction remains as we head into the election. This should not be surprising: While there have been a lot of investors piling into markets in anticipation of a Trump win, there are...

Markets sold off on Tuesday to break even. following six straight weeks of gains; still, markets have no fear of recession. Lance shares his personal strategy for Bonds (using his own money, not clients') When everyone is hating on Bonds is the time to buy. After the Election, the focus will return to Yields and Interest Rates. Lance next provides a primer on the Technical Analysis tools he uses at RIA Advisors: Why we use it; keeping it simple. the $SPX & Moving Averages; Rules of Thumb:...

Lance explains why he took a long position in TLT, and bought call options on TLT for December in his personal account; not in clients' accounts...yet. That's because there is an extreme level of pessimism about Bonds: The options skew on bonds is as negative as it has been going back to Bonds' rally last November. Everybody is back to hating Bonds again, which is great for Bonds. There has been a big retracement in yields; they're very over bought currently, very stretched and deviated from...

What does it mean when the Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators (a predictor of the next six months' economic activity) post's a negative .5 reading...while markets seem to be able to find no ceiling? Who's right? Markets continue to be "just fine," although a potential for pullback by the end of October or beginning of November is anticipated to provide a better entry point for portfolio exposure. Lance and Jonathan answer emails, like "Is the market party over?" The biggest factor...

 Markets have now gone 6 weeks with gains without some kind of pullback or a negative week. Pay attention: The market is continuing in a rising-wedge pattern, and prices are becoming more compressed. Given that markets are over-bought on several levels, and volume in this rally is beginning to pullback, and the MACD indicator is slowing and starting to roll over, will likely break out to the downside. This will give us a bit of a correction by the end of the month, or early November, perhaps...

Earnings estimates remain exceptionally optimistic, raising the question of whether consumer spending can sustain present levels (the source of earnings!) Investors should be careful averages, and remember that records are recrods for a reason. Why we're still expecting acorrection; we've had six strong weeks in a row, and a seventh is not out of the question this week. Lance looks at where earnings are really occurring (in the Mag-7 companies); what happens if those top 10% companies cease...

 Markets are hitting brand new records this year because they hitting levels which previously marked the peak of the market. Records are records for a reason. The seasonal buy signal was triggered last week, which typically suggests that markets will be high over the next six months, which is the seasonally-strong period of the year. That does not, however, mean that there cannot be a correction along the way. In fact, it should be expected: Markets are now up six-weeks in a row; a seventh...

Richard & Jonathan recap their recent recruiting visit on the campus of Texas A&M University: There is hope for the next generation. Earnings season continues, discussion of Netflix and Lance's coffee rants. Anti-globalization & the China effect; the fallacy of International buys; "I love Lucy" & Vitametavegamin. Why fasting should be called slowing; Medicare Open Enrollment and changes in many plans: What happens when Medicare advantage plans go away; many supplemental...

Retail Sales numbers today, and earnings recaps (so far) and previews; looking for an outsized seasonal adjustment to Retail Sales due to calendar anomalies; there's nothing overly concerning to markets. The big focus will be the election and it's outcome and control of House & Senate: The market hates uncertainty, and loves gridlock. Lance refutes rash of negative videos: Markets see nothing of concern. Market Bears are on parade, what does the rise in Volatility mean? The VIX is implied...

Despite a plethora of negative videos proclaiming the imminence of market crashes, this market looks like 2007, and the end of the world is upon us (and there were plenty of headlines about a "soft landing" and a Goldilocks economy back then, too), markets currently are not suggesting any of that.: Markets have continued to make new highs, grinding along an upward trendline. Where does this leave us? We always caution against investing with reckless abandon, but there's also no reason to be...

Will the strength (or weakness) of the consumer be revealed in this week's Retail Sales report? Liquidity is continuing to flow into markets; if things are so good, why all the liquidity flows? Stock buy backs resume in 10-days, adding $6-B/day of more liquidity (which is NOT a return of capital to investors.) Energy stock exposure exoansion: As interest rates rise, so have oil prices. MACD Sell signal has been triggered, and we anticipate falling oil prices through the end of the year. Lance...

We previously added exposure to Energy stocks when they were all beat up, and following a correction in oil prices, we expected to see a pick-up. That has happened. As oil prices go up, so do interest rates because of the impact on inflation expectations from higher oil prices. That rally became very over extended and has now flipped with news that Israel will not attack oil fields in Iran. That, in turn, has triggered a fairly high-level MACD Sell signal, suggesting that oil prices could...

Retail Sales figures should be interesting, as retailers were stocking up ahead of the short-lived dockworkers' strike. Lance previews Thanksgiving at the Roberts' house, featuring brisket! Earnings week continues with a string of the most negative earnings revisions in a long while. Markets operating under a seasonal buy signal and an ever-upward trend: What could possibly go wrong? Lance discusses the importance of risk management in a bull market environment. How to lose 100% of your...

How can a seasonal buy signal comport with the need to manage market risk? You can have a market trending higher and still have risk: When you see markets moving ever higher, and become extremely deviated from the averages, it implies that you're going to have some kind of corrective action = risk. So even though you're in a bull market trend, and even though you have a seasonal buy signal it doesn't mean that you should avoid risk management. Deviations from the 50- and 200-DMA tend to...

It's Earnings Season "Rush Week" this week, with the bulk of companies reporting 3rd Quarter results; after that, the stock buy back window is prepared to re-open, providing nearlt $1-T in funds to flood the markets. The median value of stock portfolios is $250k, up from $190k. Demand for AI chips is not going away. Markets entering the seasonallt-strong period of the year after hitting new, all-time highs on Friday, triggering a buy signal. The risk of a deeper contraction is possible, but...

The Seasonal Buy Signal is ON. The seasonally-strong period typically runs from October thru May, and is known as the best 6-months of the year. Stock pullbacks typically occur in the Summer, as we saw this year. Markets broke out to a new, all-time high on Friday; in a confirmation the the bull market remains intact. On a weekly basis (which slows down the date), we have triggered a buy signal, and this now corresponds with the seasonally-stronger period of the year, which suggests markets...

All was not hunky-dory in the recent Fed meeting, as the FOMC Meeting minutes reveal a split-decision on lowering rates by 50-bps vs 25-bps. Meanwhile, in the markets, the S&P is having its Best Year Ever since the "turn of the century." The current, rising wedge is both a bullish and bearish sign; CPI numbers will be today's trigger. Volatility in the markets, thanks to uncertainty over presidential election outcome, Israel-Iran war effect on oil prices, etc. The VIX doesn't always tell...