Episodes
What is the right level of interest rates? While discussion of 'R-star' might seem esoteric, they do say one important thing: Euro interest rates are way too high. The Federal Reserve has achieved its price stability mandate and is now switching to focus on employment. Growth is now front and centre of all European economic policy debate. Even - especially - in the UK. The new chancellor is going down exactly the wrong path if she sticks to her fiscal rules. Don't just listen to us - every...
Published 09/17/24
Irish inflation this week confirmed that the economy is showing few, if any, obvious signs of overheating. Prices are still going. up but at their slowest pace in a long while. That said, prices are 20% higher than we saw pre-pandemic. Memo to economists: don't pretend you know what causes inflation. European interest rates are still too high. When does government debt matter? 100% of GDP? 300% of GDP? As always, it all depends! But the US is adding to its debt in a most reckless and...
Published 09/15/24
In this podcast special Jim talks with Alex Denning, a 25 year old racing superstar. The business of modern racing is all about money, contacts and driving talent - in that order. Alex talks about doing exactly what his parents didn't want him to do. Making it with McLaren! But it costs anything between 5-15 million to break into Formula 1. Sometimes more - your dad has to buy the car company! Want. to lose weight? Forget about Ozempic - drive a McLaren very fast for lots of laps and you will...
Published 09/13/24
To the surprise of many observers, Europe's top court has told Apple it must pay Ireland €13.1 billion in back taxes. In a case that dates back to 2016, it's partly a history lesson about dodgy practices - the double Irish and all that. Those days are long gone. But there is also an investment lesson here, one that is not just of historical interest. The outcome of the original investment was €14.8 billion became €13.1 billion, thanks to the original purchase of negative yielding government...
Published 09/11/24
Latest jobs numbers from the US point to a weakening economy. Interest rate cuts are on the way. The only question is, 'how big?' European elites are warning that Europe could cease to exist in its current from unless radical remedial action is taken. Few politicians will lsiten. If they do, they won't act. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Published 09/10/24
Still drowning in cash, the new Finance Minister is warned by IFAC, yet again, not to spend it. Are the fiscal giveaways of past budgets really costing each household €1000 a year? Amidst all the cries of 'they are windfall taxes' it's forgotten that capital investment is - or should be - very different to current spending. We used to argue about borrowing for investment purposes - economists have always pointed that that borrowing for investment is perfectly ok, provided the return on that...
Published 09/07/24
Rather than put all the spare cash in a 'future proof' fund, should the Finance Minister simply recognise the future is here, right now? Deviance has been normalised. Bicycle sheds with golden roofs: a parable about quality versus quantity of government spending Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Published 09/04/24
J D Vance has shot to prominence following his selection by Donald Trump to be, potentially, the next Vice President of the US. In this podcast special, we focus on Vance's 2016 best-selling memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, to try and explain and understand the man who clearly wants, one day, to be the leader of the free world. We are joined by Professor Shane O'Mara of Trinity College Dublin to discuss all things JDV. And there really is a lot to discuss! Shane is also a best-selling author (of much...
Published 08/31/24
The upcoming budget is thought likely to include changes - increases - to tax breaks on pensions and a rise in inheritance tax thresholds. We both agree that helping millionaire pensioners with even more tax breaks is nuts. But we disagree sharply about the wisdom of inheritance taxes. These are incredibly emotive topics. As our discussion shows! The Other Hand always welcomes feedback - good, bad or indifferent. We share a particularly interesting perspective from one listener. Ireland's...
Published 08/29/24
Ireland has just set a new record for the number of people in employment. Back in the day, you either worked on the farm, civil service, domestic service or emigrated (only slightly simplified). If you had accurately forecast the relentless fall in agriculture-related jobs over the past decades you would have also forecast an overall economic disaster - one that did not happen. There were plenty of bad times of course but you would not have expected rapidly growing population and job numbers...
Published 08/25/24
Irish house prices are approaching double digit rates of increase. What is going on? Is it supply? Demand? Interest rates? Demography? The robust economy? Of course, it's all of the above. We need to think about all of these things. If you really want house prices to fall you would massively increase supply and aggressively raise interest rates. A good old fashioned recession would really help. So be careful what you wish for. The economy is, thankfully far from recession. But something weird...
Published 08/18/24
Chris explains why he has deleted his Twitter/X account. Donald Trump is weird, but is it a good attack line for the Democrats? Elon Musk's resemblance to Bond villain Elliot Carver Russia has been invaded: a story that doesn't figure on the front pages. And the latest economic news. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Published 08/14/24
It seems a touch fanciful to us, but some analysts are wondering if Intel could go the way of Nokia. What is true is that at least one big company with a big Irish presence is in a spot of bother. Let's hope its recovery plan works. But it is a reminder that many a once great company has disappeared. Who remembers that Nokia once was as dominant as Apple? The US regulator has declared Google to be a 'monopoly'. That could have profound consequences. Whether or not technological obsolescence...
Published 08/10/24
Reminder: stock markets go down as well as up. But wait long enough and they usually go up. Is the return of volatility a sign of a problem or just another wobble that will soon be forgotten? One problem is the story we create around these type of events. Our narratives are often not very good guesses. Chris puts some cash to work and Jim sticks to Bitcoin - this is not investment advice!!! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted...
Published 08/07/24
Markets message to central banks: you are making a big mistake Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Published 08/03/24
'Weird' and 'vibe' are the words of the moment. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Published 08/01/24
What is with all these extreme Catholics in positions of power & influence in the US? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Published 07/29/24
Is J D Vance nomination Trump's big strategic error? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Published 07/25/24
Reflections on Hillbilly Hypocrisy. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Published 07/22/24
Has Simon Harris managed to change the narrative? He's 'taken back control' of at least some of the key issue. We shouldn't underestimate the powerful psychological impact of wiping out Sinn Fein's aura pf 'electoral inevitability'. Is ' buying the next election' with a giveaway budget really a sensible strategy? Even politically? Is it true to FG's self-image as the party of fiscal rectitude? Is it even possible - is the Irish electorate that biddable? Perhaps call the general election and...
Published 07/18/24
Is Keir Starmer already getting lucky? Only one month's data, but GDP growth smashed estimates in May. US and Irish inflation down again. IFAC warns about an 'overheating' risk to the Irish economy. Why we should all, in fact, get to love overheating. Nvidia, AI & the US stock market: amazing growth Biden is losing his friends. He should make Kamala Harris President now. Orban has a very dodgy group of friends. Poland is getting nervous. Reform. We note that the infighting looks to have...
Published 07/14/24
The Irish political scene looks as fluid as that in France, the UK and elsewhere. The polls are getting it wrong and plenty of voters don't make up their minds until they enter the polling booth. We take a deep dive into all of this with renowned Irish political analyst and commentator, Tull McAdoo. Why is Sinn Fein's vote collapsing? Will they recover? Maybe their last General Election result was a proper Black Swan event and the recent local and European elections are a better reflection of...
Published 07/12/24
In conversation with author, blogger and columnist, Professor Chris Grey Post the Labour landslide election victory, some of us have smiles on our faces. Does the result mean we can now really turn the page on the chaos and mendacity of the last 14 years? Is Keir Starmer relying on dumb luck for success? Is this the last chance saloon for the UK? "Stability, Investment and Reform". How deliverable are these things? Will they be enough, particularly as there is no money? Labour is placing a...
Published 07/10/24
The Irish finance minister is drowning in cash. Booming tax revenues the clearest indicator - much better than GDP - that the economy remains robust. Politics over economics: Charlie McCreevy once said when finance minister, "If I have it, I'll spend it'. It's not what the budgetary watchdog or the central bank would endorse - quite the opposite of course. But if its bad economics, is it good politics? If so, the upcoming budget is going to be something else. Will that budget be quickly...
Published 07/08/24
In this podcast we welcome back regular guest, Professor Shane O'Mara, neuroscientist and professor at Trinity College Dublin. I a review of an important new book by Dan Davies, professor Brad de Long of Berkley asks the question: given we are over 15 times better off than our pre-industrial ancestors, why are we so miserable. Davies gives one answer: things have become so complex, few people know how anything works any more and nobody is in charge. So nobody is accountable. 'Nothing works...
Published 07/04/24