Europe’s recession is all but locked due to upcoming energy shortages with much higher prices and another housing bubble already pricked. High inflation and interest rates in the U.S. with a downward trending global economy is likely to bring recession as a base case for next year. High interest rates, lower housing prices, and increasing energy prices will, in early 2023, cause the Fed to belatedly pause…although it may be too late to pause to avoid a severe recession.