This week, we’ll talk about the implications of the BRICS+ meeting, increasing long term interest rates, and the continuing vast amount of dollars coming into the U.S. stock and bond markets. Historically, in war times, money moves out of higher geographical risk areas into U.S. dollar investments. It’s hard to predict the ebb and flow of global investment movements but, historically, when this trend ends it ends abruptly. My question is how these flows will change after the election. In...

Most of the leading Western countries going into or well into recessions while Russia and China organize BRICS+ against the dollar and economic leadership. The implications of chronic under-reporting U.S. employment and inflation in the context of increasing long term interest rates and out of control federal spending. Stay tuned for the outcome later this month of the Russia hosted BRICS+ summit including China's plan for settlements of global trade outside of the dollar systems. Prepare...

The rapid progress of BRICS+ to replace the dollar, growing role of gold, a new round of money creation, and, once again, higher inflation expectations. Keep a close eye of the BRICS+ news releases and the upcoming meeting in Russia in late October. Many liberal policies being reversed/replaced in Europe including a ramp up in immigrant deportations (rising civil unrest), and, overall more out of control government spending. Now is the time to prudently plan for a war time economy or at least...

BRICS+ progress to dethrone the U.S. dollar and concurrent set of U.S. economic and political threats to stability.

Is the October BRICS+ meeting introducing a new gold-backed currency? The global political/economic environment is rapidly deteriorating and so are the related issues we are facing. Protecting ourselves for a most volatile Fall with lower risk investments should be a top priority now.

Major government revision of 'number of employed' reported in process for release. Economy weakened quite significantly this summer with threat of Japan 'Carrytrade' still overhanging the U.S. bond and stock markets. Challenge by BRICS+ to the U.S. gaining global momentum with U.S. electioneering a strong negative for U.S. global engagement.

Key lessons to keep in mind with new and powerful fears in control. As expected, major long-term trends impacting your savings, investments, and job now "front and center". The stock market has given up all its 2024 gains with more issues to immediately follow. Hundreds of billions if not several trillion dollars promise to disrupt global financial markets as the Japan "carrytrade" reverses...is this the start of a new bear market with a declining dollar and severe recession in the offing?

Plus Sector By Sector Expectations. Summarizing the high risks in buying into a healthy economy even in an election year. Now, both commercial and residential real estate crashing. The Fed will regardless of real inflation expectations begin to reduce their Fed funds rate but longer term interest rates will be held at high levels. Lower income families anticipated 5-10% inflation over the next 5-10 years (in stark contrast to the Fed's 2% target). The stock market is prepped for a major down...

BRICS+ just ended the dollar’s strangle hold on Petro-dollar trade. Russia/China have largely eliminated their dollar trade with Russia eliminating dollar holdings entirely and China seemingly following suit (China is the past largest holder of US government debt). Forget the G20 and now look primarily at the traditional G7; it’s the G7 vs. the BRICS+ (will soon be over half the world’s population, the majority of the minerals, most of the oil, and rapidly growing gold reserves). Expect a...

BRIC’s Ministers Meeting and moves to increase their control of vital minerals while moving away from the dollar, inflation remains a major problem for U.S. consumers, new jobs almost all part-time filled by non-U.S. born workers focused on low-paying compensation segments, and another bank crisis remains dead ahead.

The Economic Dominoes Are Falling and Falling Fast! Don’t Get Caught Up in the Stock Market Euphoria. The national commercial real estate crisis is looking more and more like a developing depression with all major markets pretty much in freefall. Look out below if you own bank stocks, REIT’s, and pretty much all lenders as consumer delinquencies are spiking up. Additionally, the BRIC’s countries are now “locked and loaded” attacking the U.S. dollar through the energy markets now and soon to...

There is a continuation of the free fall in the commercial real estate market and problems for our small/medium sized banks. Government agency reporting or mis-reporting of inflation, growth, and unemployment under the microscope with the reality of a difficult economy is starting to surface for all to see. White collar workers are facing new and serious job retention issues with many new layoffs reported on a weekly basis. China is stockpiling raw materials, including copper and gold, while...

The U.S. employment data has been significantly overstated since 2022. The economy has not generated more full-time jobs for native Americans with all the reported increases either non-existent (later adjusted out of the data), part-time, or non-native Americans (importantly non-documented in America). The Fed is likely throwing in the towel, albeit slowly, on its higher interest rate policy (motivators include the commercial real estate crisis, growing banking issues, and government selling...

California employment reporting adjustments show most of reported employment gains last year had to be adjusted substantially downward. In brief, reported employment increases of close to 300,000 had to be revised downward to only 50,000 actual. Across the U.S. food prices and oil prices again moving higher as keeping overall inflation expectations at a higher rather than lower range. Meanwhile, the leaders of the stock market rally are experiencing serious issues in term of their cash flows...

Banks have run out of time to camouflage their substantial bad debt losses on commercial real estate as the price decline continues. Consumer confidence declining and likelihood of an official recession is increasing. Major stock indices and capital flows into the U.S. at highs while businesses try to increase prices to maintain present levels of profits….the big money is not made in buying or selling it’s made by waiting [for the impacts of all that is already in process].

The contagion of U.S. commercial real estate just spread to Asia and Europe in a big way…with an estimated loss of $1.2 Trillion in office building market values more is certainly on the way. Meanwhile, the stock market is oblivious with flows of international money (thanks to the many wars), a European recession with Germany being ground zero, and large momentum funds juicing the Magnificant 7 FAANG stocks. It’s a great time to appreciate liquidity and safety while avoiding FOMO (fear of...

China’s Evergrande now entering bankruptcy which may force the sale of millions of homes and condos as well as total losses for international investors in China real estate related bonds. Both the Suez and Panama Canals seriously limited ship traffic but for different reasons. Inflation again increasing and the impact on interest rates will not be good for consumers or investors (in the stock or bond markets). So far, the BRIC’s countries want to out compete the U.S. but they prefer investing...

Many revision to 2023 government reported indices understated the country’s economic health (employment seriously overstated and inflation understated). The commercial real estate market continues to collapse with the equivalent of 30 Empire State Building now vacant in NYC. The wars and threats of wars are driving up future inflation via escalating shipping fuel, crew costs, and sky high shipping insurance costs. China’s recessionary environment keep crude oil prices stable globally but...

As stock and bond markets celebrate a friendlier sounding Federal Reserve it’s time to review the context. The quick change in tone of the Fed and the crashing commercial real estate markets are likely related. We enter 2024 with many Black Swan events threatening our well-being. Our focus on lessening personal financial risks in stock and bond provides a calmer backdrop for the holiday season knowing that our many 2023 economic issues are carrying over to 2024. The $Trillions injected into...

3rd Quarter company sales and earnings were most disappointing! Once again, a small number of large companies counter-weighted the poor performance of the majority of companies and industries. Now the large companies, such as Apple, are facing lower sales prospects and can be expected to have magnified downside leverage on the stock market in a growing recessionary economy. A number of important leading indicators are warning of a difficult 2024.

A national commercial real estate crisis is picking up momentum with many landlords and banks facing historical financial losses. WeWork’s bankruptcy and Blackstone’s project by project defaults are adding hundreds of large commercial properties and many millions of square feet of office space to an already in-process crisis. Long term interest rates are expected to continue even higher as U.S. government long term bond auctions now reflect many traditionally large buyers walking away (and...

Interest rates and inflation continue as major issues for economic growth and family well-being. BRICS countries cutting back needed raw materials and threatening our EV industry. Nuclear power and cancelled pipeline plans coming back on the table. Preparing for a long-term war related economy?

This week we discuss anticipated Fall-out from a new extended period of high interest rates, out of control government borrowing, and challenges to the U.S. dollar.

The CARES Act has moved over $20 billion/month into the hands of business owners. These amounts are nationally significant and have kept many reported government indices out of recessionary mode. This year the monthly cash payments from the IRS to businesses began to ramp up from $20 billion to $40 billion/month which is over half of all corporate income taxes normally received. Due to rampant fraud in this program over 600,000 new applications are now held in suspense with no IRS processing...