India Policy Watch #1: What Do Successive Defence Budgets Reveal? Insights on burning policy issues in India — Pranay Kotasthane (An edited version of this article was published in Hindustan Times on 13th Feb) Another defence budget zoomed past us on Feb 1. Since then, analyses have focused on how the defence spending for the coming year departs from the last year. Some have waved a red flag as defence spending has fallen below 2 per cent of GDP for the first time in many years. On the other...

India Policy Watch: Passing the Burden Insights on burning policy issues in India — Pranay Kotasthane As Wilson’s Matrix tells us, concentrated benefits (costs) trump diffused costs (benefits) on most occasions. Organising people around diffuse interests is difficult. As a political articulation of these voices is difficult, they are consigned to being a background hum in the cacophony of politics. One such diffused interest group is the future generation. Apart from the common difficulty...

We turn 200 editions old today. It has been fun. Thank you for giving us your time. You can do without another self-congratulatory mail in your inbox. So, let’s get moving on with a nod to this classic line of Majrooh.  मैं अकेला ही चला था जानिब-ए-मंज़िल मगर  लोग साथ आते गए और कारवाँ बनता गया I had set out on this journey all by myself Others joined, and it turned into a caravan India Policy Watch #1: Decoding Our Maladies Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ Tell me the...

India Policy Watch: Our Week With Adani Insights on current policy issues in India - RSJ That was an eventful week in India. In the last edition I had written these lines on the ongoing Adani saga that have now come back to bite me: “The FPO might struggle a bit to sail through. But that amount is a chump change for the group. A week or so of volatility, some questions from regulators, a few lawsuits, some strategically timed PR events and the group will be done with this kerfuffle by...

We have a book out. Already bought it? Good. It makes for a great gift too. Ship it to your friends. Here’s the helpful link. Now curl up for a long Sunday edition. India Policy Watch #1: The State and Capital This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

India Policy Watch #1: Fertility 2.0 Insights on current policy issues in India — RSJ First, the good news.  “India may have already surpassed China as the world’s most-populous nation in a milestone that adds urgency for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to create more jobs and ensure the country sustains its world-beating growth. The South Asian nation’s population stood at 1.417 billion as of end 2022, according to estimates from the World Population Review, an independent organization focused...

Predictions: 2023 —RSJ As promised last week, let’s get going with some predictions for 2023. Pranay likes to keep them very specific (for a good reason), while I get away with broad bets. Global Economy The problem with predicting anything on how things will unfold globally is the random big event that upends all forecasts. This has happened in the last three years. The impact of the pandemic waves and the Ukraine war is yet to play out fully. By themselves, it makes for difficult terrain...

Wishing You a Great 2023 Others might begin the new year with resolutions, but we prefer excuses. Last year, we wrote only 42 editions. There was much to do in the remaining ten weeks. There was the Football World Cup, a few time-offs, a couple of vacations, and of course, a lapdog ate our laptops. If these honourable reasons weren’t enough, we add another: we wrote a book! Our book Missing in Action: Why You Should Care About Public Policy will be published on 23 January 2023. Like this...

Programming Note: A lighter edition this weekend because life happened of late-night football, missed flights, and several other things. Also, we will be away for a short year-end break. Normal service will resume on Jan 8, 2023. Happy holiday season, everyone! India Policy Watch: Digital Rupee (e₹-R) Is In Town Insights on current policy issues in India — RSJ The RBI launched the first pilot for the retail digital Rupee this week. It is now among the select list of central banks that’s...

India Policy Watch #1: Winning The Long Game Insights on current policy issues in India — RSJ Many moons ago I sat down for lunch with someone who is often referred to in the media as a ‘doyen of the industry’. Among other things, I asked him the single most important advice he would give to anyone who is at the start of their career. I didn’t have any burning desire to succeed in the corporate rat race. So, I wasn’t looking for a life-changing insight. I asked it because custom demanded...

India Policy Watch: State Capacity, the Smart Parking Edition Insights on domestic policy issues — Pranay Kotasthane Public policy is all around us; observing the same public space over time can reveal much about public policy, implementation, and state capacity. So, I’ll try something different today. I will narrate the story of a parking policy reform, which I’ve observed closely over the last couple of years. In it are lessons for government contracting, deployment of technology, and...

Global Policy Watch: Tu Cheez Badi Hai Musk, Musk (umm, sorry) Insights on global policy issues — RSJ One of the great problems of policy, or even philosophy, is who should own things that are or that behave like public utilities. For instance, who should own news broadcasting services? Suppose you prepare a case study explaining what’s news broadcasting, the perils that someone abuses such a service to spread fake news and propaganda, and the damage they do to society. Now hand over this...

Global Policy Watch #1: FinTech Manoeuvres Insights on global issues relevant to India — RSJ One of our favourite topics to talk about around here is regulations. We aren’t dogmatic about things. But the one principle that comes close to being a dogma for us is our belief in spontaneous order. The world is a complex interplay of many economic and social networks. Don’t try to force an order on it. Let the spontaneous, uncoordinated actions of the millions run their course. Some order will...

India Policy Watch #1: Ganesh Ji & Lakshmi Ji To The Rescue   Insights on domestic policy issues — RSJ Sometime last week, this newsletter marked three years of its existence. A blink of an eye in the larger scheme of things. Yet, it feels nice to have reached this milestone. Consistency might be the virtue of an ass, but it is a virtue nevertheless. In these three years, we have stayed somewhat true to our purpose in every edition we have sent out. We have analysed policies intending...

Programming Note: We will be on a short ‘writing’ break. Normal service will resume from Oct 29. Global Policy Watch: When Traditional Institutions Work   Insights on topical policy issues in India — RSJ King Charles III was coronated last week. I saw the pictures of the event, and if you did not know the history of the British monarchy, the whole thing looked like a Monty Python sketch on a Nolan-esque budget. The King wore a costume that might have appeared outdated even in the 12th...

India Policy Watch #1: The Anatomy of Decentralisation Insights on topical policy issues in India — Pranay Kotasthane The human-made floods in some parts of Bengaluru generated much furore. Writing about it in our previous edition, RSJ remarked: The way the political economy is structured right now, it is difficult to see how there will be enough devolution of power and finances to a city. A big city most often is a bankrupt political orphan in India. It doesn’t look like changing any...

Global Policy Watch: Europe’s War Global policy issues and their implication for India — RSJ There is an energy crisis in Europe. Russia announced this week that it won’t resume supplying gas to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline until the west lifts the sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Till last year, Russia accounted for about 45 percent of the EU's total gas imports. About a third of it flowed through Nord Stream 1. A few months back Russia halted supply via Nord Stream citing...

India Policy Watch: Why Do We Not Get It Right, Ever? Insights on topical policy issues in India — RSJ Policies fail more often than they succeed. This is a universal truth. We love to pontificate in this newsletter on why policies fail. It is the easiest of things to do. Crafting a policy that factors in the many variables that could impact its outcome and thinking through its implementation is one of the toughest skills to master. Things change, assumptions get invalidated,...

PolicyWTF: Revdi Fertiliser Culture This section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen?  - Pranay Kotasthane In the past, we have discussed many government plans of the “One Nation, One X” kind. Still, I must confess. Of all things that can substitute the letter X, “fertiliser” was beyond my thinking horizon. Limited thinking wasn’t a problem for the government, which has: “decided to implement One Nation One Fertiliser by introducing...

Global Policy Watch #1: The Many Transitions In China Global issues and their implications for India — RSJ In a few editions in the past, we have alluded to structural challenges in the Chinese economy and the window of opportunity that it presents India. I thought it would be useful to take a more comprehensive view of this.  China reported a GDP growth of 0.4 per cent in the quarter that ended in June 2022. China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) isn’t known for its allegiance to...

Happy Independence Day! - Pranay Kotasthane and RSJ This newsletter can often seem pessimistic about India. That isn’t true, though. Every year, on Independence Day, we remind ourselves and our readers why we write this newsletter. This is how we ended the Independence Day edition of 2020: “What we have achieved so far is precious. That’s worth reminding ourselves today. We will go back to writing future editions lamenting our state of affairs. We will do so because we know it’s worth...

India Policy Watch #1: Futility Of Fighting Lies Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ I have been following the case of Mohammed Zubair, the co-founder of the fact-checking site Alt News with interest. He was granted interim bail by the Supreme Court a couple of weeks back. You can read more about the story here. I border on free speech absolutism, so my opinion on this case, as with many other similar cases in India, is simple. No one should be jailed for any speech unless...

Global Policy Watch: Energy Is Flagging Insights on burning policy issues from an Indian lens — RSJ Who do you think has a better long-term view of the world? An administration struggling to control inflation and rising oil prices, one that’s facing midterm elections with the lowest approval ratings, or large institutional investors projected to own about 20 per cent of all US listed companies by 2028? I don’t know. I mean, it is conventional wisdom that all that the likes of...

India Policy Watch #1: To Catch A Falling Rupee Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ The Indian rupee this week declined to an all-time low as it went beyond 80 per dollar. For reasons that aren’t always clear to me, this kind of thing makes a lot of news in India. I mean, it was 79.9 the week before. There isn’t a yawning gap between that and 80. Yet opinion pieces are written, cartoons sketched, and old tweets of macroeconomic theorists like Akshay Kumar, Juhi Chawla and...

Global Policy Watch #1: How the Sri Lankan Economy Unraveled Insights on policy issues making news around the world — RSJ What people do when they storm palaces is broadly instructive about what comes next. In 1792, the French insurgents determined to end whatever remained of the ancien regime stormed the palace of Tuileries and confronted the Swiss Guards who were defending the palace on the orders of Louis XVI. Blood, gore and massacre followed, at the end of which about eleven hundred...