As markets continue on a dynamic trend, fixed income portfolio manager Crista Caughlin discusses the economy and factors that drove markets in the first quarter of 2024. In addition, the reemergence of a more typical correlation pattern between stocks and bonds, getting central banks off the sidelines, and the concern that markets may be being too complacent. Key points from this episode: Global growth improving, inflation moderating, and earnings relatively strong In Canada, growth has...

Portfolio Manager Manar Hassan-Agha discusses the importance of position sizing in investing and how factors like behavioural biases, market structures, and optimal betting strategies under the Kelly Criterion can impact returns at varying position weights. The conversation explores limitations in precisely calculating probabilities and edges for stock investments and how frameworks and checklists can be used dynamically to thoughtfully consider odds, edges, and optimal sizing for investment...

Portfolio Manager Peter Lampert breaks down the decision to re-open the strategy to new institutional investors and the key inputs that determine the strategy’s capacity. In addition, “a tale of two acquisitions”: one head scratching, the other improving the investment thesis of the holding. Key Points From This Episode: Breaking down the decision to re-open the strategy to new institutional investors How the team determines the strategy’s capacity A puzzling acquisition by KDDI and a...

In this episode, host Rob Campbell and 11 colleagues on the research team engage in a comprehensive post-mortem analysis, sharing candid reflections on their decision-making processes over the past year. This episode underscores the significance of learning from both successes and mistakes, highlighting the value of vulnerability and introspection within the investment team at Mawer. A Few Highlights: •  Investing before comfort in competitive markets is necessary for returns •   Less...

In this episode, newly appointed Fixed Income Portfolio Manager at Mawer, Brian Carney, shares his insights on global credit strategies. With over 30 years of experience in the investment industry, Brian discusses his career journey, the evolution of credit markets, and his perspectives on current market dynamics. He highlights Mawer's approach to managing credit risks and opportunities, detailing the new Global Credit Opportunity Strategy at Mawer.     Key Points From This Episode:   ...

In this episode, Manar Hassan-Agha, co-manager of the Global Equity Strategy, joins host Rob Campbell to discuss applying the 'Moneyball' process in evaluating past investment decisions. They unpack the lessons learned from this approach, emphasizing long-term thinking in investment strategies. The conversation highlights critical insights from the Moneyball statistics, the importance of decision quality over short-term results, and the value of inactivity in investment management.     Key...

In this episode, Kevin Minas sits down with Crista Caughlin, Lead Portfolio Manager at Mawer, focusing on the key economic developments of Q4, including growth levels, inflation trends, and the resilience of financial markets. They speak on the nuances of the Canadian bond strategy and the impact of these economic factors on portfolio management.   Key Points From This Episode:   Volatility in Q4 with notable declines in interest rates and inflation   Marginal changes in growth, with a...

In this episode, Dave Ragan, co-manager for the EAFE large-cap strategy, speaks on the current state and future prospects of EAFE markets. He delves into Japan's market challenges and opportunities, examines the impact of global interest rates and economic conditions, and explores the decision-making processes in market volatility.     Key Points From This Episode:   Japan's historical challenges and current state in the EAFE portfolio   Chugai Pharmaceutical: A recent addition to...

Portfolio Manager Peter Lampert dives into the world of emerging markets, sharing what’s changed for the portfolio since last year, insights on where we’re seeing new opportunities (e.g., Brazil), and the impact of geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe. He also explores why we’ve reduced our weight and exposure in China and what a slowdown in emerging markets might mean for investors.      Key Points from this Episode:   Main drivers behind the portfolio’s rebound in performance from...

Today on the podcast, Equity Analyst Michael Vogel discusses the importance of analyzing technological shifts beyond artificial intelligence and how these shifts can impact non-tech companies in the portfolio. Michael emphasizes the cultural approach to holding views lightly and shares examples of how the Research team navigates these changes.   Key Points From This Episode: - Tech changes, non-tech companies adapting, potential shifts - Image sensors improve, and Kodak sales rise...

A recap of the quarter and our thoughts on the hard vs. soft landing debate. Highlights: Main drivers of the market pullback Inflation’s persistent “stickiness” and potential implications of “higher for longer” interest rates How are consumers faring? Asset mix update Looking ahead—what’s on our radar

Main themes impacting the portfolio and the benefits of systematically tracking investment decisions. Highlights: Valuation considerations in a higher rate environment How (and why) we’ve started systematically tracking and analyzing our investment decisions  Portfolio adjustments—adding AltaGas, exiting Enbridge and Agnico Eagle Quick dive into Dollarama’s business model and some of the stock drivers

A look at the strategy a year on and why we think valuation should be more top of mind for investors. Highlights: Influence of big tech stocks on the U.S. market and associated impacts to the small and mid cap space The AI theme continues—Elastic, Concentrix, Moderna Why is the U.S. market more expensive compared to its developed market peers? Regional banks—what happened, the current state, and opportunities (e.g., First Citizens Bank) Identifying potential economic themes through a...

How we approach finding new ideas in the widest investment universe. Highlights Eagles and vultures mental model—why idea generation is better enabled by one shared investment philosophy and knowledge base E.g., Novo Nordisk and Publicis What is the “Bathroom List” and its role in our investment process and ESG considerations—e.g., JDE Peet’s Why nuance matters when incorporating scuttlebutt—e.g., Publicis How we’re continuously refining and improving our processes Current emerging...

Unpacking one of our key mental models around investing and managing risk. Highlights: What we mean by “non-predictive decision making” Examining the question, “what’s your outlook and how you are positioned accordingly?” through a non-predictive decision-making lens The important difference between vulnerabilities and triggers Vulnerabilities we’re paying attention to

Market drivers that stood out this quarter, where inflation is at, and an asset mix update. Highlights: How markets have been climbing a “wall of worry” Recalling Cisco Systems and considering implications around the current concentration of tech stocks in the S&P 500 Our thoughts on the continuing rate hikes and “soft landing” scenario Holding cash: what’s changed?

Top highlights from the team’s recent research trips and a few business models we’re excited about.   Highlights: Insights from visiting Norway, the Netherlands, Kazakhstan, India and some holdings—Equinor, AutoStore™, Ahold Delhaize, Adyen, Genmab, Kaspi, Weir, HDFC Bank Why we’ve been reducing our weight in China and our current thinking around regional exposures The unique competitive advantages of Compass Group and Chugai Current and future implications of AI for the portfolio and...

A deep dive into key themes we’ve been focusing on, recent additions to the portfolio, and a few changes.   Highlights: Quick recap: What has changed with the portfolio since 2022? What we mean by “engaged owners” (and the difference they can make) Why we are looking for companies with lower duration How we try to find a variant perception from the market—and some examples Recent additions to the portfolio: Dermapharm, Donnelley Financial, Hikma, Ipsos, SoftwareONE, and Technogym Our new...

Why management teams matter, energy companies rarely meet our investment criteria, and JPMorgan and State Street differ from many regional banks.   Highlights Potential implications of the recent advancements in generative AI U.S. regional banking challenges and our exposure Why we don’t currently own any energy sector companies in the portfolio A look at two holdings—one “old” and one new—Verisk and BorgWarner Our observations on broader earnings results

Why genuine knowledge building and the ability to learn effectively in investing is difficult, and how we try to work around those challenges.   Highlights: Context setting: What does “epistemology” mean, and why did we get excited about it in relation to investing? What is knowledge? How do you create it? The two founding blocks: Inductive and deductive reasoning A contrast in knowledge approaches and evolutions—e.g., the airline industry vs. astrology The resonance behind the...

The major themes of the quarter, where we are in the interest rate hike cycle, and our thoughts on the recent banking crisis.   Highlights: The slow-moving impacts of central bank policy on inflation Our banking exposure Why it’s important for investors not to fear recessions Asset mix update

This episode, we discuss our seven-point management assessment framework (with examples), our risk management approach, and overall thoughts on energy.   Highlights: Why it’s difficult to find energy companies with sustainable competitive advantages—and where we see some opportunities—e.g., Parex Resources and International Petroleum Corporation Another way to look at geographic diversification? Revenue profiles in the portfolio (e.g., Jamieson Wellness Inc.) Diving into our Management...

Digging into last year’s performance drivers, the current opportunity set, and benefits of resuming boots-on-the-ground research.   Highlights: A review of the market and our strategy’s performance in 2022 and three key learnings Why we exited Kakao, and some of the new additions to the portfolio: Salik, Vesta Risks we’re monitoring—and managing: China-U.S. tensions over Taiwan and geographic exposure in the portfolio The power of pricing power (see: TSMC) and types of ESG considerations...

The nuanced impacts of inflation to companies’ balance sheets that investors might be missing.   Highlights: How inflation can present major challenges to businesses Why investors need to look more closely at maintenance capital expenditures and depreciation expenditures—e.g., Dollar General A return to accounting basics and monitoring inventory balances—e.g., Johnson & Johnson