Episodes
With timing being the key behind our bullish regional Henry Hub story, the reversal of a preliminary junction granted to Energy Transfer a year ago may provide relief for future LNG demand. Meanwhile, the USDA’s April WASDE was neutral-to-bearish relative to average trade expectations, leaving unanswered questions for South American corn and soybean production, after yet another month of local write-downs.
SpeakersShikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research Tracey Allen, Head of...
Published 04/12/24
A hot CPI print following the recent strong jobs print has put ‘high for long’ back in focus, challenging the soft landing narrative. We discuss with Phoebe what these ‘bumps in the road’ mean our views on TIPS, breakevens, and duration generally. As for Gold, Greg dissects the reasons for the recent rally and reviews whether the rate cutting cycle is going to be as bullish for Gold as it was historically.
Speakers:
Phoebe White, Head of Inflation StrategyThomas Salopek, Head of Cross Asset...
Published 04/12/24
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist
Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist
This podcast was recorded on 11 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4671783-0 for more information; please visit...
Published 04/11/24
Rates strategists Jay Barry and Teresa Ho discuss the moves in secured funding rates and Treasury yields in the wake of strong manufacturing and employment data, and preview the risks around March CPI and the April tax date.
Speakers
Jay Barry, co-head US Rates StrategyTeresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy
This podcast was recorded on April 5, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at...
Published 04/06/24
In this episode, Rates strategists Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss some current key themes and topics for Euro area rate markets. They cover the upcoming April ECB meeting, the recent fiscal announcements and noise in France and Italy, views on swap spreads, drivers of Euro volatility and the impact of rising oil prices on inflation markets.
SpeakersFrancis Diamond, UK Rates & European Inflation Strategy Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy Khagendra Gupta, Rates...
Published 04/05/24
This week, our FX Strategists Patrick Locke, James Nelligan & Ladislav Jankovic discuss USD & G10 FX trends amid a backdrop of strong US data & higher yields against improving global growth signals, and also break down implications for the dollar from higher oil, weaker CAD data and prospects for CHF depreciation.
This podcast was recorded on 05 April 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at...
Published 04/05/24
At face value, and assuming no policy, supply or demand response, Russia’s decision to cut oil production could push Brent oil price to $100 by September. But there are multiple counter-measures that could act as a suitable rebalancing mechanism. The US can release up to 60 mn bbls of crude from the SPR and demand could buckle. For now, we keep our long-held price forecast unchanged ($90 by May, $85 in 2H24), awaiting further clarity regarding Russia’s actions, but acknowledge that the way to...
Published 03/28/24
Meera Chandan, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss FX implications from DM central bank superweek and outline expectations ahead of the upcoming BoC/ Riksbank meetings.
This podcast was recorded on 25 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4656374-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2023...
Published 03/25/24
Rates strategists Jay Barry and Francis Diamond discuss the outcome of the FOMC and BoE meetings, and the implications for US and UK rates markets.
Speakers:Jay Barry, co-head US Rates StrategyFrancis Diamond, Head of UK and Euro Cash Strategy and Head of Global Inflation Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 22 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4656360-0,...
Published 03/22/24
Driven by a surge of financial inflows, copper prices have jumped higher in March, eclipsing $9,100/mt earlier this week for the first time in a year. Copper prices are finally responding to the intensifying supply tightness that has skewed us bullish on the metal since last December. We retain this bullish medium-term bias but now need micro indicators in China to turn around and begin actually signaling a tight fundamental market to sustain upwards price momentum from here. With refined...
Published 03/22/24
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655420-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This...
Published 03/21/24
Morten Lund, Khagendra Gupta and James Nelligan preview the upcoming Norges and Riksbank meetings and discuss our views in the FX and Rates market.
This podcast was recorded on 20 March 2024.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from...
Published 03/20/24
We discuss the behavior and outlook for yen in the aftermath of a historic BoJ meeting.
This podcast was recorded on 19 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655242-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4655046-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All...
Published 03/19/24
In this episode, we discuss our takeaways from the February inflation data and the broader outlook for inflation, the Fed, and rates markets. We still look for inflation to cool gradually over time. In the Fed's SEP released next week, we think there are better than even odds that the median dot for this year moves to showing two 25bp cuts by YE24 vs. the three such cuts in the December dot plot. We change our Fed call, and now look for 75bp of cuts this year, or one 25bp every other meeting...
Published 03/15/24
Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan discuss the outlook for currencies amidst a heavy central bank event calendar next week.
SpeakersArindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4650281-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for...
Published 03/15/24
We believe Russia can maintain oil exports at current levels through June even as it cuts 0.5 mbd crude production. Russia can achieve this by offsetting 200 kbd reduction in banned gasoline exports with higher crude oil shipments as constrained refinery runs due to drone attacks and maintenance that runs from April through June lower processing rates. After June, Russia would likely have to cut exports to accommodate lower crude production setting the stage for a contentious June OPEC+...
Published 03/15/24
Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.
Speakers:
Jonny Goulden
Saad Siddiqui
This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4650338-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase...
Published 03/14/24
Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss recent developments in the US Interest Rate Derivatives markets and our views going forward
Speakers:
Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy
Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 11 March 2024
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4643590-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for...
Published 03/11/24
Meera Chandan, Ben Shatil & Patrick Locke discuss USD/JPY dynamics ahead of the upcoming BoJ meeting, implications of recent US data for the dollar, and the outlook for EUR after this week’s ECB meeting.
This podcast was recorded on 8 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4648213-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for...
Published 03/08/24
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research
Gold prices have shot to new highs this week largely catching the market by surprise given relatively minor moves in rates and FX. The sharp rally demonstrates the immense power of flow in gold and previews why we remain structurally bullish the metal over the next year. Yet, for us to ultimately reach our upside price targets we need to unlock more than just the...
Published 03/08/24
The team discuss the key features and developments of the EM fixed income sustainable debt asset class.
Speakers:Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy Virginia Martin Heriz, Head of ESG Research Methodology and Integration Lydia Harvey, Head of ESG Index Strategy & Implementation Alisa Meyers, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 6 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related...
Published 03/06/24
21.6 million electrified vehicles (BEV, PHEV, hybrids) were likely sold worldwide in 2023 or 33% of total auto sales. Sales of battery EVs are still rising, but the growth rate appears to be easing, losing market share to hybrids. Fully or partially electric vehicles represent now 7% of the global fleet, likely shaving almost 500 kbd off global gasoline demand between 2019 and 2023, with 400 kbd of those from the US and China. Increasing pressure from electrification and efficiency gains will...
Published 03/04/24
Speakers:
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Jake Pollack, Global Head of Credit Financing to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets, following on from J.P. Morgan’s 2024 High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference.
This podcast was recorded on March 1, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only....
Published 03/04/24
In this episode, Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss thoughts on the recent flash HICP inflation print, the upcoming ECB meeting and the UK Spring budget and the implications for both Euro and UK rates markets. They also discuss thoughts around the expected outcome of the ECBs review of its operational framework.
This podcast was recorded on 1 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at...
Published 03/04/24