Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss recent developments in the US Interest Rate Derivatives markets and our views going forward   Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, US Rates Strategy Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 11 March 2024 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4643590-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for...

Meera Chandan, Ben Shatil & Patrick Locke discuss USD/JPY dynamics ahead of the upcoming BoJ meeting, implications of recent US data for the dollar, and the outlook for EUR after this week’s ECB meeting. This podcast was recorded on 8 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4648213-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for...

Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research   Gold prices have shot to new highs this week largely catching the market by surprise given relatively minor moves in rates and FX.  The sharp rally demonstrates the immense power of flow in gold and previews why we remain structurally bullish the metal over the next year. Yet, for us to ultimately reach our upside price targets we need to unlock more than just the...

The team discuss the key features and developments of the EM fixed income sustainable debt asset class. Speakers:Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy Virginia Martin Heriz, Head of ESG Research Methodology and Integration Lydia Harvey, Head of ESG Index Strategy & Implementation Alisa Meyers, Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy This podcast was recorded on 6 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related...

21.6 million electrified vehicles (BEV, PHEV, hybrids) were likely sold worldwide in 2023 or 33% of total auto sales. Sales of battery EVs are still rising, but the growth rate appears to be easing, losing market share to hybrids. Fully or partially electric vehicles represent now 7% of the global fleet, likely shaving almost 500 kbd off global gasoline demand between 2019 and 2023, with 400 kbd of those from the US and China. Increasing pressure from electrification and efficiency gains will...

Speakers:    Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit   Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Stephen Dulake, Global Head of Credit and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, are joined by Jake Pollack, Global Head of Credit Financing to unpack the latest themes in global credit markets, following on from J.P. Morgan’s 2024 High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference.   This podcast was recorded on March 1, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only....

In this episode, Fabio Bassi, Francis Diamond and Aditya Chordia discuss thoughts on the recent flash HICP inflation print, the upcoming ECB meeting and the UK Spring budget and the implications for both Euro and UK rates markets. They also discuss thoughts around the expected outcome of the ECBs review of its operational framework.   This podcast was recorded on 1 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at...

Strategists Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss the outlook for rates and currencies ahead of Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony, the ECB meeting, and February employment data next week. Speakers:Jay Barry, US Rates Strategy Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on date. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4640038-0,...

Elisabetta Ferrara and Aditya Chordia discuss their views on the evolution of demand for Euro area government bonds, based on the analysis published in our Global government bond activity chart pack.   This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4635297-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for...

Teresa Ho and Ipek Ozil discuss recent market developments that will likely result in a later QT taper and what that means for markets with respect to ON RRP, reserves, SOFR, and swap spreads. Speakers: Teresa Ho, US Fixed Income Strategy Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 26 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4636544-0,...

Arindam Sandilya, Ben Jarman and Patrick Locke discuss the FX outlook amid a less dovish tone in bond markets. SpeakersArindam Sandilya, Global FX StrategyBen Jarman, Global Economics, Rates & FX StrategyPatrick Locke, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 23 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4635313-0, for more information; please visit...

While US natural gas prices made historic lows not seen since 1995 last week, European and global LNG prices have slid to lows not seen since before the Russia/Ukraine war. As prices have fallen, we have seen some interesting comments this earnings season which are likely the very result of these low prices. In the US market we will discuss one producer’s move to defer production while in the European market we will discuss what appears to be signs of life for industrial demand.   Speakers:...

In this episode, we discuss our takeaways from the January inflation data and the broader outlook for inflation, growth, and rates markets. CPI, PPI and import price inflation all came in stronger than expected in January, even as retail sales data disappointed. We still look for inflation to cool gradually over time and stick with our call for the first rate cut to come in June. We like positioning for lower front-end real yields. Speakers: Phoebe White Michael Feroli This podcast was...

With US natural gas price reaching lows not seen since 1995, it begs the question what is the path forward for US natural gas producers this summer? In this podcast, we will discuss how the US natural gas market got here and whether it changes our views on being bullish 2025 price. We think a further and perhaps more substantial slide in price could ensue if early-indications of March weather were to also suggest milder than normal.   Speaker:Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural gas...

This week, FX strategists Patrick Locke & James Nelligan discuss the lack of follow-through on the dollar following US CPI, as well as implications from inflation data elsewhere around the DM space. This podcast was recorded on 16 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view related research at www.jpmm.com for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase...

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. Speakers:Jonny Goulden, Emerging Markets Strategist Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Strategist   This podcast was recorded on date. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4628065-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures...

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the dynamics of the upcoming Treasury futures roll cycle. Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy Ipek Ozil   This podcast was recorded on February 14, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4621321-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights...

J.P. Morgan strategists and economists’ monthly discussion on the outlook for Emerging Markets fundamentals and markets.  Speakers: Luis Oganes - Head of Global Macro ResearchJonny Goulden - Head of EM Fixed Income StrategyNora Szentivanyi - Global Economics   This podcast was recorded on 9 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4621172-0 for more information;...

We discuss market pricing of growing tariff risks and US exceptionalism as durable Dollar supports. CNY focus given newsflow around China equities. In the European space we opine on recent NOK and CHF-related developments. Speakers:James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 9 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at...

Speaker:    Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Our Brent outlook continues to project a tightening market with prices rising from here by another $10 by May with zero risk premium and a 400 kbd unwind of voluntary cuts. So how do we get there? Same as in the third quarter of last year, via a drop in inventories. On a global scale, the world’s onshore crude inventories sit at 4.4 billion barrels—a record low since the start of 2017, when Kpler began tracking the data....

We discuss the FX and rates implications of from key US events this week: the Treasury refunding, the FOMC and the employment report. Speakers:Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Jay Barry, US Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 2 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4617599-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4618750-0,...

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 02 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4616636-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This...

Speakers:    Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Parsley Ong, Head of Asia Energy & Chemicals   We continue to project Brent oil reaching high $80s by May, with our constructive outlook relying heavily on our optimistic view on demand, especially China. Despite tepid economic growth momentum, Chinese oil consumption hit an all-time high of 16.03 mbd last year, delivering a 1.2 mbd growth vs 0.8 mbd expected at the start of 2023. The supporting factors that boosted oil...

Meera Chandan and Anezka Christovova discuss the ongoing global yield compression and implications for carry currencies.   SpeakersMeera Chandan,  Global FX StrategyAnezka Christovova, Emerging Markets Strategy    This podcast was recorded on 30 Jan 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4602355-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4557694-0,...

Francis Diamond and Allan Monks discuss the upcoming February BoE meeting and views on UK rate markets. The BoE is widely expected to leave rates, but given the clear shift in inflation surprises and perceived risks since November, we believe the Bank will almost certainly make a dovish pivot that puts future easing higher up on the agenda than before. August is our current call, although its hard to argue too strongly against June. The BoE will not shut the door on a potential May cut, but...