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China's economic growth is expected to strengthen on a sequential basis amid the latest stimulus package and with more incremental policies in the pipeline, translating into over 5 percent year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter, analysts and economists said on Sunday.
10月13日,分析人士和经济学家表示,在最新的经济刺激计划和一揽子增量政策的推动下,中国经济增长有望连续走强,第四季度同比增长将超过5%。
They said a long-awaited policy shift is unfolding for China's economy and markets, as policymakers have pledged to strengthen countercyclical adjustment and step up fiscal policy support. This will include the largest debt resolution support in recent years, with a particular focus on addressing pressing challenges such as the prolonged housing downturn, debt issues and sluggish domestic demand.
他们认为,由于决策者宣布加强逆周期调节、加大财政政策支持力度,中国经济和市场正在发生期待已久的政策转变。这将包括近年来最大规模的债务化解支持,尤其是重点解决住房长期低迷、债务问题和内需不振等紧迫挑战。
Their comments came as data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Sunday that China's consumer prices rose at a slower pace in September, while the decline in factory gate prices continued, pointing to pressures on the world's second-largest economy and intensifying the need to roll out more incremental policies.
国家统计局13日公布的数据显示,9月份中国居民消费价格涨幅放缓,出厂价格继续下降,这表明中国作为世界第二大经济体面临的压力,更有必要推出更多增量政策。
The country's consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, rose 0.4 percent year-on-year in September, compared with a 0.6 percent increase in August. The producer price index, which gauges factory gate prices, dropped 2.8 percent last month, widening from a 1.8 percent fall in August, the NBS said.
国家统计局称,作为衡量通货膨胀的主要指标,9月份全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比上涨0.4%,而8月份的涨幅为0.6%;工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)上个月下降2.8%,降幅比8月份的1.8%有所扩大。
"The slower CPI growth in September was mainly due to still-weak domestic demand, seasonal factors and the high comparison base in the previous year, while the deeper PPI drop was influenced by falling commodity prices, especially in the energy sector," said Zhou Maohua, a researcher at China Everbright Bank.
光大银行研究员周茂华表示:“9月份CPI增速放缓的主要原因是国内需求依然疲软、季节性因素和去年对比基数较高,而PPI降幅加深则是受大宗商品价格下跌,尤其是能源行业的影响。”
Shen Bing, director-general and a senior research fellow at the market and price research institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said the growth in CPI is expected to register a mild recovery while maintaining overall stability in the fourth quarter of the year.
中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所所长、高级研究员申兵表示,预计今年第四季度CPI增速将在保持总体稳定的基础上温和回升。
This is because consumer demand has shown signs of pickup, with the sales of passenger vehicles and home appliances having improved, a trend that would be consolidated upon the implementation of incremental policies to expand domestic demand, Shen said.
申兵解释,这是因为消费需求出现了回暖迹象,乘用车和家电的销售都有所改善,这一趋势将在扩大内需的增量政策实施后得到巩固。
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