With just one week to go, I chat with Dr David McCann of the University of Ulster about government formation once the election is over. He suggests that 2.5 / 3 party governments will be the norm from here onwards. I suggest that Sinn Féin should be driving a wedge between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael rather than pushing the FFG line.

With 8 days to geo I chat with old friend and self confessed "liberal hardline centrist" Jason O'Mahony about how he thins the election campaign has gone, so far. We discuss the part that independents may play in government formation and conclude that (counter intuitively) more independents will mean less influence.

With 10 days to go to polling day... I look at last night's RTÉ Upfront 10 podium leaders debate and conclude... there is no shortage of opposition parties... what we don't have is any alternative government.

Just under two weeks to go and any polling shifts are well within the margins of error. The fact that voters may not have switched on to the campaign is a not a permission slip for parties to forget the lessons of the global crash and indulge in auction politics.

In this episode I am joined by Stephen Spillane of the Green party. He is a long serving political activist who knows and well understands the Cork political scene. We do a tour of the 5 Cork constituencies and Stephen offers his insights on what to watch out for, in each. Check out his Cork GE2024 blog

With 15 days to go… what do we know now that we didn't know before it started… well... not a lot. One of the few things I think we can say for sure is that the voters are not yet fully engaged.

In my second GE2024 podcast I look at how the Soc Dem and Labour party leaders fared in their two media outgoings and observe that Paschal Donohoe uncharacteristically rose to the bait at the housing debate on RTÉ's Upfront with Katie Hannon.

The first of my (almost) daily series of short GE2024 podcasts looking at how the Irish general election campaign is playing out. If well begun is half done... then Fine Gael's campaign isn't even 5% done.

The morning after an appalling night before, I reflect on lessons from Trump's big win. I specifically look at his clear messaging that posed him as the voter's ally. I only saw his "Kamala is for They/Them. President Trump is for you" messaging today. It's crisp, clear and direct and speaks to concerns middle America has about the country's direction.

These are my thoughts as we wait for the Irish general election to be called next week. TL;DR: I worry that many of the available options won’t resonate with voters. If I were in a different constituency I might examine my ballot paper and think: “None of the above” ...and I've voted Fianna Fáil 1, 2 and 3 at almost every election, ever. Finally, here is the link to ⁠Stefan Müller⁠'s excellent Irish Polling Indicator project, which I reference several times in this podcast.

Though much of the political process speculation will focus on whether the election will be held in February 2025 or November 2024, I think it should instead look at why so many centrist and MoTR voters look at SF, FG and FF and say... none of the above.

This is my 7th annual Summer political reading list. Most of the books on this year’s list have been published within the past 12-18 months. All cover broadly political topics, or are (imho) of interest to those with an interest in politics, be it Irish, European, American or global. The choices are mine. I have read some, not all, but all are of interest to me.

In this episode I look at how pleased Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are pleased by each securing 23% of the votes of those who showed up… but point out that this is not necessarily a sign of greater things to come. That said, Fianna Fáil should celebrate its cohort of new Cllrs. See column on which this podcast is based.

I look my elections checklist and see how the results stack up against it. I see the predictions I got right (a few) and the ones I got wrong... and why. I also comment on the current petulant row over newspaper polling. There will be another podcast soon, looking at the Fianna Fáil Local and European results in more detail.

In this (short) episode I offer my checklist of what to watch out for as the ballot boxes are opened this week-end: 1. Watch the Limerick Mayoral Result 2. Compare party results with GE2020, not LE2019 3. The SF vote total is important, but don't allow FF or FG to use that to deflect from their results 4. See who emerges as the biggest party or faction in local govt - how far will FF slide? 5. Don't see this an inflection point... but it may give hints as to how close we are to one?

There are no election predictions in this podcast as many voters have yet to decide - instead I focus on what to watch out for as we enter the last week of campaigning. I look at how party leaders will try to manage expectations, especially around seat losses and failed gains... but above all I stress that this is NOT a mid term election - the next general election is 9 months away, at most, and could be called within 4 or 5 months.

In this episode I return to a topic I have discussed many times - Irish Defence. Though there are some signs that things may be about to improve, the pace is no where near fast enough as the Minister responsible is more pre-occupied with positioning and messaging, than on tackling the real problems. There is also an article to accompany this podcast.

In this episode I analyze and examine the recent Árd Fheis speeches of Tánaiste Micheál Martin TD and [now] Taoiseach Simon Harris TD... and am not overly impressed by either, as pieces of political communications. There is a text version to accompany this podcast

In this episode I ask why does the nation's business have to go on hold for another 12 days while Fine Gael struggles with who/what it stand for? I also comment briefly on the circumstances of the resignation of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson as DUP leader. Read the column on which this podcast is largely based.

Leo Varadkar's resignation as Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader has thrown Irish politics into turmoil... things will not just continue as they were... and the other government coalition parties need to grasp this reality... fast. This podcast is based on this recent column

Having critiqued the Tánaiste's party leader speech last week, I now turn my sights on the Sinn Féin leaders speech. As a piece of writing, a piece of political communications, Mary Lou McDonald's speech was far better than those of the Taoiseach or Tánaiste... but style is one thing, substance is another. While the core message was change... how that change would be achieved was left undefined. There is a blogpost to accompany this episode, you can read it HERE

In this episode I critique An Tánaiste Micheál Martin's 2023 Árd Fheis speech as a speech, a performance, and as a piece of political communication and it scores a "must do better" on all three criteria. You can read the original column on which this podcast is based: here

This episode is about the various "tells" from government parties which point to the binary narrative that Leo Varadkar plans to apply to the next election. There is a blogpost to accompany this podcast, it will be available later today.

A little later than planned... here is my Summer 2023 political reading list (plus a short supplemental list). The 8 books on my core list look at Irish, EU and global politics. The two lists (core and alternatives) contain several biographies as well as polemics on key issues. You can read the accompanying blogpost at: https://derekmooney.ie/2023/08/12/my-summer-2023-political-reading-list/