Episodes
Some women are apprehensive about investing, but there’s plenty of evidence they’re better at it than their male counterparts. There have been several studies conducted over the years, and many of these have shown that on average, women often achieve better investment returns than men. Women are more likely to follow tried and tested investing principles, while men often think they know better. Studies also show women trade a lot less, are more willing to stick to a long-term plan and are...
Published 05/07/24
It was the second good week in a row for global sharemarkets, with many continuing to rebound from the weakness we saw in April. Markets still see interest rate cuts on the horizon, with some comforting Federal Reserve comments and a softer jobs report adding to hopes last week. This week, the US consumer will be in focus as the University of Michigan consumer survey is due for release. We'll also get the latest Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on credit conditions, while...
Published 05/04/24
Published 05/04/24
If you buy a share or exchange traded fund (ETF) listed outside New Zealand, it’s not just changes in the share price that will determine your return. You also need to keep an eye on the exchange rate between the New Zealand dollar and the currency in question. While currency moves don’t have a significant bearing on long-term returns and at times they can help reduce volatility, over shorter periods they can have quite a big impact. Many local investors are happy to take on some currency...
Published 04/30/24
After an April sell-off saw the US market fall 5.5% from its all time, the S&P 500 rebounded 2.7% last week, its best performance in almost six months. This came despite another hotter than expected inflation report, with the headline PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) increasing at an annual rate of 2.7%. Solid earnings releases drove the gains, and with 46% of the market having reported 80% of companies have beaten expectations. Most other sharemarkets followed suit, with the...
Published 04/27/24
Markets were volatile last week, with another stronger than expected inflation report in the US rattling investors and pushing out hope for interest rate cuts. Wednesday's release of our own consumer price index for the March 2024 quarter will be the key event here in New Zealand, with markets hopeful this will be fall further and open the door to Official Cash Rate cuts later in the year. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve speakers will be closely watched to see recent developments have changed...
Published 04/13/24
Several sharemarkets hit new highs during the first few months of this year, but the most significant milestone of all came in Japan, where the Nikkei 225 index finally retook the level it reached 34 years ago in 1989. After a stellar performance in 2023 which saw the Nikkei surge 28.2 per cent, even outpacing the mighty S&P 500, Japanese shares rose another 20.6 per cent in the first three months of this year and stormed through those previous highs. The rally hasn’t been because of a...
Published 04/09/24
The highlight of the coming week will be the consumer price index report in the US, after two months of stronger-than-expected figures. The odds of a June rate cut from the Fed have fallen from almost 90% to about 50/50 in recent weeks. The European Central Bank will release a monetary policy decision on Thursday and while no change is expected, markets will be looking for clues that a rate cut is imminent. In contrast to the US, recent inflation readings in Europe have come in below...
Published 04/06/24
This year has started very strongly for share investors, with returns in the March quarter much better than many would’ve expected. World shares rose 7.8 per cent and as was the case in 2023, the US and Japan led the charge. New Zealand assets lagged, with the NZX 50 sharemarket index rising 2.8 per cent and corporate bonds posting a marginal gain. As was the case in 2023, well-diversified investors with a global mindset have been handsomely rewarded. Central banks will remain a focal point...
Published 04/03/24
It'll be another holiday-shortened week, with markets closed on Monday in New Zealand, Australia and the UK (while the US market will open as normal on Monday). The highlight will be the March jobs report in the US, while the latest ISM indices are also due (on Monday and Wednesday). If the flash PMIs for the same period are anything to go by, we might see an improvement across the manufacturing sector this month. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be giving a speech at Stanford on...
Published 03/30/24
If you hold some of your investments in a trust, your tax rate is going up next week. You might need to rethink the types of assets you own and the investment vehicles you choose, to ensure you’re not paying more tax than you need to. But beware, the impost might not be the showstopper some are suggesting it will be, and it doesn’t always make sense to build an investment strategy around tax minimisation. Fine-tuning could be the order of the day, rather than a dramatic recalibration of your...
Published 03/26/24
It was a very strong week for sharemarkets in most regions, with confidence interest rate cuts are just around the corner growing and financial markets responding positively. The Swiss National Bank cut its policy interest rate on Thursday, becoming the first central bank with a G10 currency to do so. This followed the Federal Reserve's unchanged guidance for three rate cuts in 2024 (despite some stronger inflation figures of late), and the first Bank of England decision since 2021 where no...
Published 03/23/24
Short-term deposits are offering great value to investors right now, but don’t get content. Within the next six months interest rates could start falling, and after the first cut they’re likely to keep going lower. If that happens, investors will be facing much less attractive reinvestment rates and a declining income stream. Rather than waiting for the herd to catch on, savvy investors should take advantage of this opportunity and make hay while the sun is still shining.
Published 03/19/24
Central banks will be in the spotlight this week, with monetary policy decisions due in Japan and Australia on Tuesday, then in the US and UK on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. All eyes will be on the Fed following last week's hotter than expected inflation figures, with investors likely to focus on the latest projections and the dot plot, which will show where Fed officials see interest rates going over the coming years. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision on Tuesday will also be eagerly...
Published 03/16/24
Property investors are set to benefit from changes to interest deductibility rules, which will kick in at the end of this month. The Government is reversing changes that were implemented under the previous regime, which meant interest costs could no longer be considered an expense come tax return time. What might that mean for prospective investors, and with less headwinds will the housing market take off again?
Published 03/12/24
The highlight of the coming week will be the US consumer price index on Tuesday. After a hotter than expected release in January, markets will be watching for any further upside surprises or signs price pressures are more persistent than hoped. This will be the last major release ahead of next week's Fed meeting, as markets get increasingly confident the first rate cut of this cycle will come within the next three months. Locally, we'll be watching the ANZ truckometer and electronic card...
Published 03/10/24
The local reporting season wrapped up last week and while it wasn’t terrible, we saw a lacklustre set of releases and company updates. Many of our listed companies are still doing it tough against the backdrop of a sluggish economy, high interest rates and waning consumer demand. Which companies fared worst and why, were there any brights spot, and what does this tell about the economy and the investment outlook?
Published 03/05/24
Last week was another good one for global sharemarkets, with further highs for indices in the US and Japan, and solid performances elsewhere too. The key event was the Reserve Bank decision here in New Zealand, where the Official Cash Rate was left unchanged and forecasts suggested the next move will be down. Looking ahead, the key economic release will be the US monthly jobs report on Friday, which is the last ahead of the March Federal Reserve meeting. Speaking of the Fed, Chair Jerome...
Published 03/03/24
As we look ahead to the US presidential election in November, many will be pondering how this might influence the investment outlook. The election is eight months away, but March is an important month on the US political calendar. Next week Super Tuesday should tell us what we already know - that we’re headed for a Biden vs Trump contest, the first since presidential rematch 1956. Two days after that, President Biden will give his State of the Union address. What does history tell us about...
Published 02/27/24
The S&P 500 in the US rose 1.7% last week, closing at a new record high partly on the back of another very strong result from NVIDIA. The chipmaker and key AI exposure rose another 8.5% last week, which sees it up 59.2% so far this year (following a 238.9% gain in 2023). European and Japanese shares were also strong, both rising 1.4% as indices in both regions hit fresh peaks. The Nikkei 225 in Japan finally surpassed it’s 1989 highs after 34 years, while the European Stoxx 600 exceeded...
Published 02/24/24
Some investors baulk when they see a high share price, but they shouldn’t. A company’s share price tells us absolutely nothing about whether it’s expensive or cheap and if anything, it can often be a sign of a strong track record. Don’t be put off by high share prices, or the illusion of value that can come from a low price. Dig a little deeper and consider each investment on its merits. Some of the best opportunities are the ones that might look the most expensive (on the face of it).
Published 02/20/24
Monetary policy will remain in focus this week, with the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting due for release as well as the ECB's account of its January meeting. Flash PMIs are out on Thursday in most of the major economies, and these will provide useful insights into how economic activity is tracking this year. Locally, retail sales will be a highlight on Friday, while we'll see the results of the latest dairy auction midweek. The earnings season gets going on the NZX this week, with...
Published 02/17/24
The US market has had a stunning run over the past year or so. The S&P 500 index peaked in January 2022, before declining 25.4 per cent over the following nine months in the wake of rapidly increasing interest rates. Since those October 2022 lows, the market has rebounded 40.5 per cent. In recent weeks it’s surpassed the peak from two years ago, moving past 5000 points for the first time. Against that backdrop, is it too late to invest in US stocks?
Published 02/13/24
What a week! We saw the S&P 500 sharemarket index in the US rise another 1.4%, closing at a fresh record high and pushing through 5000 points for the first time. There was also plenty of action in New Zealand, as wholesale interest rates rose to a three-month high on the back of strong economic indicators and a bold OCR call from the ANZ economics team. The Reserve Bank will be in focus this week, while the international reporting season continues and some local companies will get in on...
Published 02/10/24
Bitcoin took a big step forward last month, with the Securities and Exchange Commission in the US finally giving approval for exchange traded funds to begin trading on the sharemarket. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) quickly emerged as one of the favourites, passing US$1 billion in investor inflows within just five days. This trend could well continue, and there could be a large pool of new money that’ll flow into these funds. For some looking to dip their toes into the world of...
Published 02/06/24