After a year of range-bound behavior, fixed income and FX markets are trending. The catalyst? The anticipation and election of Donald Trump as US President, with confirmed Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress now thrown in for good measure. After seeing large re-pricings across asset classes and currencies over the last two months, how much of the news is in the price and which of the so-called Trump Trades are still worth pursuing? Returning to the podcast to answer those...

Bridging the gap between financial theory and investment practice has been the hallmark of research at State Street for more than 25 years. So, we are lucky to speak to a pioneer in this endeavor this week. Sébastien Page, head of Global Multi Asset and Chief Investment Officer at T. Rowe Price, joins the podcast, walking us through insights gleaned from over two decades in finance, starting with reflections on his time at State Street. We dive into his research on portfolio construction,...

The votes are cast and the results from the 2024 Election are rolling in. In-house election guru Noel Dixon joins Street Signals with his initial thoughts. What were the big surprises and what went as expected? And, given what we know so far, how should we think about the implications for stocks, bonds and the US Dollar over the medium to long term? All this and more on our special election reaction podcast! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Among all the other risks, next week’s US election and Federal Reserve meeting dominate the market outlook and look set to drive price action and volatility for the rest of 2024.  Debate is intensifying over whether the most appealing consensus views are already aligned with pricing for interest rates and FX and are now subject to disappointment. Fredrik Repton, a senior portfolio manager in fixed income and currencies at Neuberger Berman, joins the podcast, discussing his approach to risk...

Private cryptocurrency has been around for 15 years. Institutional acceptance is here. Movement towards public, central bank-issued digital currencies (CBDCs), on the other hand, is proving more deliberate by design. The demand for safe, digital currencies is growing and the gains from efficiency look significant. But the accompanying risks are under-discussed. We fix that this week and speak with Antoinette Schoar, our academic partner and Professor of Finance at MIT’s Sloan School of...

The rise of the internet 25 years ago amplified information, in the process accelerating the deterioration of institutional structures around the world. Society has so far proven resilient but our abilities to construct and sustain guiding narratives are fraying. The implications for economics, politics and even markets are and will continue to be profound. Martin Gurri, former CIA analyst, author and visiting fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, joins the podcast for a...

Beijing's latest round of economic stimulus includes a slew of measures to reignite demand and aid in the repair of household balance sheets. So far, the announcements are bold and appear forceful, and they have sparked a surge in risk markets sensitive to Chinese demand. But will words be matched by action and will the latest efforts to kick-start the Chinese economy be effective? This week, Yuting Shao from our Strategy Team in Hong Kong and Lauren Van Biljon, an emerging markets investor...

Monetary and fiscal policymakers are pivoting to easing mode. In developed markets, the restrictive rate policies of the post-COVID period are reversing nearly everywhere. As importantly, China is engaging on multiple fronts to support demand in an economy still constrained by high debt burdens. It should all add up to a great environment for risk assets, right? Maybe, but as Michael Metcalfe, Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Global Markets points out, there are nuances. Drawing on a...

The US Presidential election is six weeks away, polls are dead-locked and the most relevant questions for markets remain open. Which electoral barometers are of greatest relevance as Election Day approaches? Where are the post-election gaps in the two candidates' policy possibilities the widest? And which markets are most underpriced for the risks those gaps entail? Elliot Hentov, Head of Macro Policy Research at State Street Global Advisors, returns to the podcast with his unique and...

Greedflation - companies exploiting a high inflation environment to raise prices relatively more than costs - has grabbed attention and headlines in economics commentary, but the evidence to prove definitively whether it took place on a wide scale in the post-COVID period is not conclusive. This week, we chat with our academic partner Alberto Cavallo, professor at Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats, about a new working paper in which he and his co-authors take a deep dive...

Experience in markets helps practitioners cope with the inevitable cyclicality of economic fundamentals and risk appetite. Combining the muscle memory of past cycles with new ideas and ways of thinking is crucial to lasting success. That's the lesson this week, as we talk to Chris Pizzotti, Global Head of FX Voice Trading at State Street Global Markets, about his formative experiences in trading and how they help him to think about the most pressing questions in markets today. Is volatility...

Markets dealt well with volatility in early August and got a boost from the Federal Reserve’s dovish message in Jackson Hole at the end of the month. But September is known for seasonal weakness and is kicking off with worries over global growth and a question of whether anticipated monetary easing is enough to sustain gains in bonds and equities. With these challenges in mind, Marija Veitmane, our head of equity strategy, is back on the podcast to discuss optimal asset allocation strategies...

The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starts tomorrow. It takes on added significance this year, with an easing cycle seen starting next month, in the wake of softer economic data and a bout of market volatility. This year’s forum focuses on the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Rising fears that the Fed is falling behind the curve and not easing quickly enough to ensure continuation of a soft economic landing would suggest that policy...

After a burst of volatility, markets are settling. Is the turmoil over or was it the opening episode in a destabilizing series of events? We don’t know but there are metrics we can monitor to get a better sense of how asset and currency markets will behave in the coming weeks. Street Signals host Tim Graf walks through four different themes from State Street Global Markets' suite of proprietary indicators of investor behaviour, inflation and risk. Each can be observed daily, with implications...

The volatility of the last two weeks can be ascribed to many events and raises more questions than answers. Was it a clear-out of crowded positions in illiquid summer markets or the early stage of a systemic financial event? Is the US economy’s soft landing still on track? Will recent moves in equities, rates and FX now reverse or form new trends? Peter Vincent, our head trading in London, joins the podcast to try and answer those questions. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Quiet summer markets were disrupted recently by sharp moves in equities, as the long-standing strength of IT and communication stocks gave way to a surge in valuations for smaller companies. Such price action can be healthy. But where past episodes of market rotation came in a rising market, as volatility fell, the recent rotation in stocks came with wider ranges, higher volatility and a retreat in overall market performance. With stocks still close to all-time highs, we ask Cayla Seder from...

Summer lulls in market activity are common, but this year's calm is unique. Interest rate, FX and volatility markets are rangebound despite jarring headlines and upheavals in politics, and the potential for binary market outcomes in response. The search for high conviction views seems more difficult than normal. That makes it a good time to get the perspective from someone with a day job of managing risk. This week, we speak with Dan Mazza, head of our US FX forwards desk, on where he sees...

At the end of 2023, attractive yields and valuations on emerging market assets and currencies made for many consensus long calls from sell-side strategists. Many of those views played out for much of the first half of 2024. And even some of the political and electoral obstacles to performance proved to be short lived, such is the institutional credibility that has strengthened in many developing economies over the last ten years. Dwyfor Evans, our head of emerging markets strategy, joins the...

Trends in US inflation have been, are and will be one of the critical drivers of markets. After a bumpy first quarter, fears of an inflationary spiral are cooling once more and, with the US labor market also showing signs of softness, the Federal Reserve sounds increasingly ready to ease policy as a consequence. But election year politics and stubbornly volatile consumer inflation expectations complicate matters. This week - on US CPI day of all days - Michael Metcalfe, our global head of...

Higher yields change the game for asset allocators around the world, with pensions in particular now able to better match liabilities to assets. In the UK specifically, 20 years of previously persistent trends in asset allocations now require a reassessment. And this week’s general election carries with it a potential expansion of the investor’s opportunity set. To unpack what can be a very opaque and complicated investing landscape, this week’s guest, Toby Nangle, an independent analyst and...

This evening's Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump kick starts a campaign season that, so far, has been a formality and failed to spark much attention in either the electorate or the market. Polling margins between the candidates are razor thin and many of the usual rules of thumb to forecast elections don't seem to apply anymore. To help us unpack the narrative and offer insights drawn from years of political analysis, we were fortunate enough to host our newest research...

After 14 years of Conservative government, the upcoming UK General Election on 4 July will bring seismic change. From both the left and the right, the Conservatives now face a threat. The Labour Party look likely to win a large majority and form a government, but are constrained in their ambitions by fiscal realities. What does it mean for the UK economy and markets? Helen Thomas, Founder and CEO of Blonde Money, joins us with a fascinating and comprehensive overview of how we got here, why...

With elections in 63 countries, representing 40% of global population and GDP, the democratic process will see few years like 2024. The US election looms largest, with implications for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait and ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, all of which feed back into the involved economies and global financial markets. This week, from the sidelines of our Research Retreat in Boston, we catch up with Iris Malone, PhD and Director in AI and Data Science at...

This week, we kick off a series of podcasts recorded at or on the sidelines of our 2024 Research Retreats, taking place across North America, Europe and Asia over the next four weeks. And we do so live, without a net, for the very first time, and in front of an audience to boot. Three members of the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Global Markets present their top picks for how to play markets over the rest of the year. Dan Gerard, Marvin Loh and Ning Sun make their respective cases to the...