China and India contribute more than a third to global population, but still only account for a quarter of global output. So, as their economies mature and their markets open more to outside investment, their respective growth and inflation stories increasingly matter for global investors. Flow dynamics are of particular interest, given the equity markets in both economies have been underinvested in for years. And, with the Chinese renminbi a low-yielding currency and the Indian rupee a...

Markets are back to all-time highs and volatility is normalizing, with the rate outlook for the remainder of the year coming into clearer focus. Is it too much of a good thing? Who better to ask than bond market guru, the creator of the MOVE index of implied interest rate volatility and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, Harley Bassman. This week's conversation explores the Fed's easing cycle, the shift in policymakers' focus from inflation to the labor market and the overlooked...

Dynamics in today's currency markets are informed by historic events and trends that shaped the structure and of the global economy. Building on a lifetime of experience in formulating currency policy at the US Department of the Treasury and as US representative to the IMF, Mark Sobel, US Chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), joins the podcast to discuss many of the most far-reaching and relevant themes driving FX markets today. He details his thinking on...

Outside of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, profit warnings and unsettling forward guidance through Q1 earnings season have sparked a re-assessment of demand resilience. Commentary from consumer-oriented firms about waning pricing power and tighter margins looks troubling. Marija Veitmane, our head of equity strategy, returns with her take on a bifurcated earnings environment, where tech still trumps all but the outlook for consumer stocks, banks and sector rotation strategies is murkier. Peter...

April brought a reality check to markets after a stellar Q1, sparking demand for safety across assets and currencies. The higher for longer rate environment, together with signs of slowing growth and sticky inflation, gives rise to thoughts of future weakness in risk assets. Naturally, investors begin to question where best to take shelter. Are traditional safe havens as effective as they have been in past cycles? How do US Treasuries, the dollar and yen, long the stalwarts of safety, stack...

Lee Ferridge returns to the podcast to give his latest take on FX, interest rate and risk markets. Ever the road warrior, we focus first on the consensus and conviction calls from the dozens of client meetings Lee has done in recent weeks, before tackling the questions we are all contemplating in macro markets could the Fed's next move actually be a hike? Can the risk rally resume if that's the case? Is there any room for further rate divergence across G10? Long or short JPY? Is the carry...

The US labor market and consumer continue to defy expectations of slowing, yet we are encouraged to believe that monetary policy is in restrictive territory. Why is that? On this week's podcast, we are thrilled to speak to Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist of New Century Advisers, founder of Sahm Consulting and developer of the renowned 'Sahm Rule', a widely observed and often misunderstood recession indicator. The conversation covers the forces driving the resilient consumer, how labor shortages...

Similar to Japan in the 1990s, China faces twin headwinds of excessive debt deleveraging and demographic deterioration, with the addition of a multi-year pandemic and its aftermath making these already considerable burdens even more challenging. Can the world's once-reliable engine for growth avoid a similar fate of disinflation and relative decline? The hurdles are high but the comparison is not entirely apples-to-apples. China's fate is not sealed, possessing key advantages in rebuilding...

It was a great first quarter for risky assets and carry trades, perhaps surprisingly, given recent economic data and events have actually offered a few surprises. Yet rotation within equity markets and the stability of relative rate expectations kept volatility at bay. After a rockier first few days, will Q2 offer a change in sentiment? This week, we welcome Bill Walsh, head of our FX trading desk in the Americas, back to the podcast to offer his thoughts on a wide array of topics. Inflation,...

A turn higher in inflation carries with it the potential to disrupt the current easing plans of central banks and create volatility, in similar fashion to the market upsets that recurred throughout 2022. The evidence in the official data is mixed, and this week, we have a genuine expert to help us answer the question of whether inflation, having cooled somewhat, is in danger of rising once more. Alberto Cavallo, professor at Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats, one of our...

Low and stable currency market volatility is feeding interest in yield-seeking strategies to a degree not seen in years. How long can the good times last and carry remain king? This week, we put the current period of low FX volatility into historic market context and note any early warning signs of a change in fortunes for strategies that sell volatility and earn yield. Fred Goodwin makes a cameo contribution, to offer a final, cautionary note on the specific dynamics in emerging markets. See...

Last October, we did an episode asking whether it was a good time to buy bonds answering, 'Yes, it probably was', with the release date marking the 16 year high in US Treasury yields. Talk about good timing. But after a 10% gain into year end, the last two months have been more challenging for global fixed income. Resilient data in the US and elsewhere have deferred expectations for easing in the large developed economies. Equities have loved the good news but the best you can say for bonds...

With decades of experience as an FX trader, portfolio manager and writer, Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, is an ideal guest for a period when currency markets are quiet, range-bound and looking for inspiration. We walk through his career path, particularly how he has adapted to changing market regimes and worked to counteract behavioral biases over the years. And, with central bank policy still the dominant factor in the market mindset, driving activity over short and long term...

The 2024 US election cycle has begun in earnest, with next week's Super Tuesday primaries likely to solidify Joe Biden and Donald Trump as their respective parties' nominees for President. Elliot Hentov from State Street Global Advisors rejoins the podcast, cutting through the hype cycle to offer a more informed read of polling, the likely balance of power and possibility in the outcomes across executive and legislative elections and the exogenous events that could influence the process along...

Preston Mui, a senior economist at Employ America, joins us this week, to dive into the improving trend in US productivity growth. Drawing on a recent paper highlighting parallels to the 1990s productivity boom, Mui emphasizes that whether we witness another boom in productivity hinges not on fate, but on policy decisions. He underscores the importance of tight labor markets, robust investment, and a stable supply of essentials to keep inflation at bay in nurturing productivity.  Preston's...

In a long career as an economist and trader, Mark Dow has seen almost everything. With one eye always on the narratives and behavioral elements that drive price, his commentary is an ideal complement to our own research. In a far-reaching conversation, we discuss his process, how it has evolved over the years, his always-insightful analysis of monetary policy frameworks past and present and the best opportunities Mark sees in markets in the weeks and months ahead. Mark is always Tweeting his...

The technology sector has no shortage of positives backing it and the applications of artificial intelligence across tech and other sectors present us with mind-boggling possibilities. But questions of valuation and concentration risk arise given how positive the consensus has become. It takes two strategists to help us sort it out, with Anthi Tsouvali from State Street Global Markets and Rebecca Chesworth from State Street Global Advisors joining us this week, to discuss the strengths and...

And the end of 2023, Michael Metcalfe, our global head of macro strategy, published a piece highlighting where our research offered a differential to market consensus throughout the year. This week, he is back on the podcast to talk about where those potential surprises may or may not be resolving and what investors can expect as a consequence, with narratives and trends forming as we move deeper into 2024. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The first few weeks of 2024 see interest rate markets in flux, assessing and re-assessing the extent of forthcoming policy easing cycles from the world's major central banks. Crucial to the outlook for rates is the likelihood of each achieving the hallowed soft landing - a normalization of inflation with minimal hiccups from a weaker labor market or below trend growth. Some economies stand a better chance than others achieving this outcome. In this context, Simona Mocuta, chief economist for...

Volatility has been subdued to start the year, but geopolitical risks are on the rise. We have yet to see the turmoil and unrest in the news have any strong effects on markets, yet it has the feel of calm before a potential storm. Elections in Taiwan, recurrence of violence in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine all carry implications for great power competition as well as economies and asset markets. The US election season, kicking off earlier this week in Iowa, should do the...

Street Signals returns from a brief winter hibernation, with the first two weeks of the New Year offering plenty of food for thought. Dan Gerard is back with us to discuss how the consensus views formed at the end of 2023 are already being challenged and we focus on what stands out as most relevant from our own research and indicators to help contribute to this discussion. So far, the trends of late last year are still intact, but new wrinkles to challenge their continuation are emerging. See...

It is hard to imagine being a market strategist and not being a voracious reader. The Strategy team at State Street Global Markets certainly love a book. And every Christmas, it is tradition for us to publish recommendations of the best things we've read (or listened to!) over the previous year - often they have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our 10th edition of that list, available now on our Insights platform. This week's podcast is an audio summary of that...

Following on the heels of our top trades in equities, rates and FX, this week Street Signals brings a broader discussion of the biggest questions for financial markets in the coming months. Is global growth set to slow dramatically or are expectations now too low? What does that mean for risk markets? Will geopolitics have a greater influence in 2024 than they did this year? Dwyfor Evans, Lee Ferridge and Marija Veitmane join the podcast to talk things through. See omnystudio.com/listener for...

The year is winding down and thoughts are shifting to what will drive markets in the New Year. There will be unknown unknowns that will surely move markets, but in this special edition we will focus on the best ideas we have to express views on the known unknowns. Every year the Macro Strategy team members independently choose the idea they think has the best chance of success in the coming year. Themes emerge from the commonalities and the talking points arise from the contrasts. Tim Graf...

2023 has been a most unusual year. Despite significant stress in the US banking system early in the year, an ongoing war in Europe, a new war in the Middle East and gyrations in rate markets, volatility has fallen from last year's highs, back to range lows. This week, we are pleased to welcome our head of Global Markets, Tony Bisegna, to Street Signals to discuss why 2023 seemed more quiet, whether that calm will extend into next year and if the major economies can avoid recession for another...