Despite protests from central banks that the fight against inflation is not yet won, expectations for easing next year are building and being pulled forward. Timing these turns in markets is tough but the moves in rates are coming just as measures of central bank coverage tone, produced by State Street in a partnership with MKT MediaStats, are turning similarly dovish. MediaStats co-founder Gideon Ozik sits down with us to discuss the construction and message from these metrics, as well as...

The calm in currency markets since the late summer has been one of the stranger puzzles of the last year. Its not as though FX markets have nothing to think about - questions over both risky and riskless asset valuation have dominated thinking for the last three months. And yet volatility in most markets, but particularly in FX, is dropping like a stone and reaching multi-year lows. This week, Tim brings back Michael Metcalfe, our Global Head of Macro Strategy, and Peter Vincent, head of...

Our annual series of Research conferences around the world came to a close this week, with events across Europe. This week, Tim flies solo and gives a summary of the outlook for macro and markets for the remainder of this year into 2024, informed as ever by the message from our unique suite of indicators of institutional investor behaviour, risk and inflation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It has been a year of two halves for equity markets. The belief that central bank easing would come to the rescue bolstered returns in the first half, but a higher-for-longer message from the Federal Reserve and other central banks, thanks in large part to a resilient US economy, is starting to take its toll. Marija Veitmane, our global head of Equity Strategy, makes a long overdue appearance discussing which corners of the stock market look most vulnerable and where to look for safety and...

It's a question increasingly asked in market discussions, especially since the brief period of deficit drama in the UK last year - is the weight of sovereign debt too much for investors to bear? And, if not yet, is there a level of yields at which debt spirals become more likely? Marvin Loh, senior strategist on our team in the US, is back to discuss those questions, as well as to provide guidance on what to expect ahead of an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. See omnystudio.com/listener for...

Markets often struggle to discount geopolitical risk and the response to the extreme violence in the Middle East last week and subsequent escalation of rhetoric seems to be no exception. Relatively benign movements in energy and capital markets thus far perhaps betray a complacency that our guest this week, Elliot Hentov from State Street Global Advisors, believes could be tested. Fragmentation globally and within the US political system make this a particularly fraught period as we look to...

It's been another rough year for bond markets, but the makings of a recovery are starting to appear. Inflation is cooling, monetary policymakers do not sound too worried about the effects of recent oil price rises and the impact of horrific and consequential geopolitical events is a reminder of the safe haven qualities many bonds have. Fred Goodwin is back to discuss the recent dynamics in fixed income markets, whether the diversification properties of bonds will ever be as good as they once...

The Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer message is still being digested by markets and pushing the dollar higher as a consequence. The longer these moves persist, the more problems it potentially creates, especially for riskier, emerging market currencies previously buffeted by their own high underlying rates, as well as for currencies in economies where the central bank can no longer keep pace with the Fed. It takes a steady, experienced hand to make sense of it and, thankfully, we have Bill...

Asia and China specifically have undergone a significant reassessment of expectations in 2023 - from the consensus, re-opening led optimism at the start of the year to facing the realities of sluggish demand and a weaker trade environment. Now, rising oil prices and a stronger dollar threaten this already fragile mix and, this week, Ben Luk from our Emerging Markets strategy team helps us to disentangle which of these risks remain relevant, versus those where the worst news is likely priced...

More central banks are sounding like they want to pause and take a break from fighting inflation, to assess how their efforts play out after some tentative, initial success. Our metrics from PriceStats have proven valuable in assessing this progress and Alberto Cavallo, co-founder of PriceStats and a professor at Harvard Business School, is back with us this week to talk it through. He has an update on whether the trend breaks towards disinflation that we saw across many economies earlier...

It's rare to find someone who can speak with expertise on one topic let alone three or four, but we're lucky enough to have Ramu Thiagarajan, Senior Investment Advisor for State Street, to do just that. Ramu and colleagues have published a recent paper on the prospects for de-dollarization, a topic of great interest in both markets and geopolitics that we discuss this week. But equally interesting and important is the expansive background from which Ramu works, marrying academic finance with...

A soft landing for the US and possibly the global economy looks achievable, but is it desirable? In the short-run, surely, yes. But in the long-run? Dan Gerard joins us this week to walk through a potential second order risk of complacency on inflation that such an outcome might catalyze, particularly if global labor markets do not loosen further. For investors, this does not mean a rerun of 2022 - thank goodness for that! We complete the discussion with portfolio implications over the...

Markets have been relatively quiet but there are concerns bubbling under the surface. While the podcast is going to take some time off to recharge before a busy Autumn, there's enough to think about and many questions to still answer before the year is out. Tim walks through the main takeaways from our recent research with an eye on how to navigate what could be a choppy few months. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In thinking about markets, we can often get the long-term vision right without considering the bumps along the way and how one navigates them. And right now, there are a lot of potential bumps to consider. This week, we are very excited to welcome Peter Vincent, head of trading for EMEA for State Street Global Markets, to talk about his background and experience, how he is thinking about markets at the moment and what periods from a long career of trading macro markets are most like the...

After 10 years of mostly steady outperformance, investors are rotating away from tech stocks and the sector is now only keeping pace with the broader index. Anthi Tsouvali joins Tim to discuss whether we have seen peak sentiment around IT and growth stocks and what catalysts would be necessary for resumed strength in this sector. We also briefly walk through Q2 earnings thus far, with an eye on the outlook for the remainder of 2023. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The rest of the summer will likely be spent wondering just how much further major central banks need to go in tightening policy. The Federal Reserve in particular sound like they are nearing the end of a rapid hiking cycle - or at least sounding like they want to be done. But US economic activity still looks robust. Lee Ferridge joins Tim this week to discuss the sources of strength in the US economy, what we can expect in the coming months and what it means for US asset markets and the...

A new partnership with GeoQuant expands our indicator set to include measures of geopolitical and country risks. We discuss these metrics with GeoQuant co-founder and CEO Mark Rosenberg and Michael Guidi from State Street Associates. Mark also provides us with a deep dive on developments in the US-China relationship, the Ukraine war and the upcoming US presidential election cycle. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Next week's Federal Reserve meeting is likely to mean a resumption of rate hikes after June's wait-and-see approach. The main question for markets is what happens after that? Marvin Loh joins Tim to discuss where terminal rates may go and when a policy pivot might come. They also talk about how the shape of the Fed's balance sheet might change in the coming year and whether worries over USD funding are legitimate. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China's post-COVID reopening was seen as a potential tailwind for global growth when other economies were seen slowing thanks to tighter monetary and fiscal policy. The reality has been a bit less impressive, with Chinese growth still failing to launch. Yuting Shao from our Emerging Markets team updates us on China's progress, focusing on what further support is still to come and what it all means for the beleaguered CNY. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A year ago, the US yield curve inverted, raising the probability of a recession as such moves so often have signaled in past market cycles. Equity markets have defied the gloom, though, and the long forecast earnings recession that was expected to follow has been harder to spot than the economic recession. Our guest this week, Fred Goodwin, argues that all may be about to change, with many of 2023s winning views at risk. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Asset allocation decisions are difficult enough, but especially so in the current environment, with the paths of growth and inflation so unclear. A recent paper by Mark Kritzman, one of our academic partners, and David Turkington, Head of State Street Associates, helps frame this quandary, using techniques that help determine the most relevant historic comparatives, towards making better, more informed predictions in an application to portfolio construction. See omnystudio.com/listener for...

Inflation is in retreat - not at a pace fast enough for the Fed to abandon its stance of tighter monetary policy but enough that the Fed skipped a rate hike at its most recent policy meeting. During a pivotal two weeks of central bank meetings, where inflation remains top of mind, what now? Join Tim as he discusses the outlook for inflation and monetary policy with State Street Global Markets' Head of Macro Strategy, Michael Metcalfe. Drawing on PriceStats and State Street's other real-time...

Previously only available to State Street's clients, Street Signals goes public! In this opening episode, we introduce the State Street Institutional Investor Indicators (3is), a new set of tools for investors. State Street's 3is provide a view of the positioning, risk appetite and portfolio carbon exposure of the world's largest institutional investors based on aggregated and anonymized post-trade data. That means they offer a window into what global investors are actually doing, not what...