Well, the election is over and we have a clear victor. What kind of economy is President-elect Trump inheriting? And what impact on it are his policies likely to have? And what does this mean for investors? Where do the opportunities, as well as the risks, lie? To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined again by Michael Green, portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed...

The markets continue to surge to all-time record highs, driven in no small part by expectations of a massive productivity boom enabled by artificial intelligence, otherwise known as AI Corporate America and Wall Street are clearly shrugging off the warnings that science fiction gave us about AI taking command of the world's technology to eradicate humans. But...there are some skeptics, like today's guest expert, who do think AI is a serious threat to the global financial order and to...

Today's guest expert wrote in her latest newsletter: "This month, animal spirits surged on bets that artificial intelligence and central bank rate cuts can solve the problem of spreading insolvency." She is highly dubious that they can. And if indeed they cannot, what then lies ahead for the economy, for the markets, and for investors? To find out we'll hear it straight from her directly. We have the good fortune to welcome Danielle Park back to the program. Danielle is president and...

Stocks and bonds both surged higher once the election was called for President-elect Trump this week. Technically and capital flow-wise, there are a number of reasons to expect stocks to keep running higher to year end and into 2025, though that won't happen without some pullbacks along the ways, counsels portfolio manager Lance Roberts. This week also saw the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by a further 0.25%, with Fed Chair projecting confidence that a soft landing is in the cards....

What impact (if any) will the Trump victory have on Federal Reserve policy? Portfolio manager & Fed-watcher Axel Merk shares his immediate take-aways from this week's FOMC release and press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He'll also take live Q&A from viewers. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

To better understand the current economic environment we find ourselves in, it helps to better understand how we ended up here. And few have as detailed an understanding as today's guest, who has been a true insider in both Washington DC and Wall Street for his extremely long & accomplished career. We're fortunate today to speak with former Congressman, economic policymaker & financier, David Stockman. He warns that "everything is overpriced" that it will be "damn near impossible"...

When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program in July, he shared that he had just closed out all his longs and moved to cash. That moved paid off, as the S&P fell over 300 points in the following few weeks. Stocks rebounded after the sell-off and have powered higher up to today, now back near all-time highs. So what does his Technical Analysis tell us to expect next? Especially with volatility elevated, both in stocks as measured by the VIX and in bonds as measured...

In this week's Market Recap, portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the drivers of this week's turbulence in stocks (especially the Magnificent 7 tech stocks), the disappointing payrolls numbers, the impact of the upcoming presidential election as well as the resumption of buybacks on markets, as well as Lance's firm's recent trades. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at...

The stock market has hit another all-time high this week, and Wall Street's profits for 2024 are off the charts -- nearly TWICE as high as last year's. Meanwhile, the wealth divide in America continues to widen as average folks struggle with the post-COVID surge in cost of living and record high interest rates on their debt. What does this growing difference between the haves and have-nots say about fairness in today's society? And how much farther can it be stretched before some financial...

We've had two excellent years of returns in the stock market. Can that winning streak continue into 2025? And in less than a week, we should know who the next President of the United States is. How should investors alter their position based on who the winner is. For answers, we're going to find out how the big players -- those managing tens of billions of dollars in client capital -- are allocating their portfolios right now. And we'll ask: what can the regular retail investor learn from...

We find ourselves in a time of transition, one that may increasingly be later described as upheaval. In a week, we'll have a new US President, which will bring change both to the US and to geopolitics. We already have a new interest rate regime as the world's major central banks have pivoted back to cutting rates. And we may be seeing the start of a new era in bond yields, which have been marching higher despite the wishes of the central planners. If this continues as a secular trend, this...

It's certainly an interesting time in the markets. The world's major central banks have returned to cutting interest rates. Yet bond yields are rising on the long end. Meanwhile, risk on assets are in rally mode. Stocks are back at all-time highs. Yet so is gold, the grand-daddy of risk off assets. To make sense of all of this, we're fortunate to speak today with capital managers David Hay and Jeff Dick of Evergreen Gavekal. David is its Chief Investment Officer & Principal and Jeff...

The S&P has been on a tear of late, rising on a weekly basis for six consecutive weeks. That kind of win streak doesn't happen very often. And...it ended yesterday. Not only did stocks close down for the week (slightly), but they broke out of the rising wedge technical pattern they've been trading in -- to the downside. Portfolio manager Lance Roberts would not be surprised to see a near-term pullback deepen from here, especially given how close the US presidential election is at this...

When today's guest was last on this program back in May, she made the somewhat heretical prediction that when the Fed started cutting interest rates, it would set off a chain of events that were likely to prove more restrictive than its tightening policy. Well, here we are 6 months later, and the Fed has indeed started cutting interest rates and yet longer duration bond yields and mortgage rates are....higher?? So, is her prediction coming true? To find out, we're fortunate to welcome...

BUY THE REPLAY of the full Thoughtful Money conference here at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference Well, the Fall Thoughtful Money conference was held online this past weekend and I’m delighted to say the event was a real success. That was due primarily to the amazing line-up of speakers who presented and took live audience Q&A throughout the insight-packed 9 hour day. Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote, followed by Stephanie Pomboy, Fred Hickey, Thomas Hoenig, Danielle DiMartino...

Pretty much every poll shows the economy remains the #1 voter issue in the upcoming US presidential election. Many of these same polls show immigration and border security as the second most important issue. Concerned by reports of a surge of undocumented immigrants crossing the border illegally in recent years, many voters worry about the economic, social and political implications of this wave of bodies, and wonder if America can effectively absorb & afford them. I recognize this is a...

Bullish signals were everywhere this week. The S&P broke above it rising wedge. It retested support & then made new highs. And buy signals on both a daily and a weekly basis have been recently triggered. All this bodes well for a strong end to the year, predicts portfolio manager Lance Roberts...except that in the immediate term, stocks are looking overbought and some sort of pullback feels warranted. Lance and I talk about this potential run-up into the end of the year, as well as...

When today's guest was on this channel back in March, he explained that rising net liquidity was responsible for the surprisingly strong performance seen in both the economy & the financial markets over the past 2 years. And he predicted that these net liquidity inflows would continue, leading to even higher asset prices ahead. Well, here in the final quarter of Q4 2024, things so far have played out according to his script. So will the good times continue into 2025? Maybe not, says...

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Banking expert Chris Whalen fears the Federal Reserve cut interest rates too soon. As a result inflation will remain sticky, the Fed will likely be forced to start expanding its balance sheet soon, and that mortgage rates will rise back above 7% #mortgagerates #interestrates #federalreserve --- Support this podcast:...

The past few years have been full of surprises, often going the exact opposite way that Wall Street expected at the start of each year. Well, as we prepare to enter 2025, and with it a new US presidential administration I might add, it helps to tap the expertise of those investors who have been around the longest and been the most successful. High on that list is Jim Rogers, legendary international investor, financial commentator and author of several best-selling books on...

In 2024 so far, stocks have had one of the best years in decades. And that's on top of a great year in 2023. Bulls are obviously cheering this, but how long can the party continue? Stocks are richly priced here. And if earnings don't start growing aggressively, at some point, prices will have to correct, warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts. That said, a new buy signal just got triggered this week (invalidating last week's sell signal). So investors need to determine how much risk they...

2023 was the year of the recession that wasn't. 2024 is looking to be the year of the hard landing that wasn't. How is 2025 shaping up to look like? For guidance we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. David is very concerned that investors, especially the 70 million Baby Boomers, are "all in" the markets. Boomer portfolios are 60% allocated to stocks. David thinks it should be half(!) of...

2024 has been a good year for the bulls. And with the world's largest economies now back into easing mode, both monetarily and fiscally, does that mean 2025 will be another winning year for the longs? To help us find out, as investors have a lot riding on the answer, we have the good fortune of speaking with investor and analyst Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital. Bill is watching bond yields very closely now, as he suspects they are starting to revolt against the Fed's rate new...

Gold has been one of the best performing assets in 2024 so far. It's up over 27% since the start of the year and recently hit a record high. And with the central banks of the worlds largest economies -- the US, China and the EU -- now all cutting interest rates, will that add further fuel to gold's breakout? For answers to all things gold, silver and the companies that mine them, we're fortunate to speak with Brien Lundin, CEO of Jefferson Financial, publisher of GoldNewsleter.com and...