Many of the recent housing analysts I've talked with, like in last week's excellent interview with mortgage expert Melody Wright, see tougher times ahead for the real estate market. So for further context, I thought it would be helpful to get a true "boots on the ground" view from one of America's more successful property investors. What is he seeing across the thousands of property units in his portfolio? Is he buying, selling, or holding steady given current market conditions? And where...

It feels like a tale of two economies right now. If you ask an economist, chances are you'll hear that the US is doing great, growing faster than its G7 peers, with low unemployment and a stock market back near all-time highs. But if you ask the average man on the street, you'll likely hear a very different story. One of hardship, where wages aren't keeping up with the massive spike in cost of living, where companies are reducing hours, freezing hiring or actively laying workers off, and...

The Dow just had its best week of 2024. And the S&P remains on a tear higher from its mid-April lows. As a result, looking at short-term conditions, stocks have quickly returned to overbought conditions, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. It's likely they'll have a cooling off period over the coming week or two. Expect a retest of the 50 daily moving average. If that holds, that's a very bullish sign that new all-time highs may not be that far away. Lance and I walk through the...

A few days ago, an article appeared in the Financial Times revealing that "Last month, the government-sponsored mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac filed a proposal with its regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, to enter into the secondary mortgage market, otherwise known as home equity loans" The article's author, Meredith Whitney, claims that if approved, this "could begin to unleash almost $1tn into consumers’ wallets. By the autumn, it could be on its way to $2tn." That would...

Today's guest expert just released a warning that the official jobs data reported by the government are "overstated by historical proportions" And when the downward revisions get released, it will shock both the Federal Reserve and the financial markets. For the details on this, we turn to the man who wrote the report, highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research. Visit David at...

Stubbornly sticky inflation looks to be turning the Federal Reserve's campaign of Higher For Longer interest rates into "Higher For Even Longer" Today's guest warns that "Markets are unprepared for price growth that is becoming entrenched". Nor do they appear prepared for bond yields to remain at today's rates, let alone march higher from here. Remember, it was only a few short months ago that the markets were pricing in 7 rate cuts in 2024. Now it's appearing they'll be lucky to get only...

Since today's guest was last on this program back in December, the world has continued to fracture geopolitically. Where is that trend taking us? And what will the impact be on global prosperity? The majority of folks who watch this Thoughtful Money channel are primarily from the US, Canada, Europe and Australia. So to provide a perspective from a non-Western point of view, I'm pleased to welcome Michael Every back onto the program. Michael is Global Strategist at Rabobank, and joins...

Stock prices are compressing in a wedge pattern suggesting the market is going to make a breakout soon. But in which direction? We'll soon know for sure, but portfolio manager Lance Roberts' models triggered a buy signal today. So he thinks the odds favor the bulls. Why discuss why in today's Market Recap, as well react to this week's Fed guidance, the new payroll data, the impact massive buyback programs from companies like Google and Apple are having on the markets, and the most common...

Yesterday, May 1 2024, the Federal Reserve issued its latest policy statement, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed held its policy interest rate steady at 5.25%, as expected. Somewhat surprising to Wall Street was the Fed's announcement that it will reduce the scope of its Quantitative Tightening program starting in June. US Treasury roll-off will be reduced to $25 billion per month, down from the current $60 billion per month. Above and beyond that, Jerome...

If we care about the future of the economy, then we have to pay close attention to the policies that shape it. We are currently living in an age of extreme -- and in certain cases, unprecedented -- levels of monetary and fiscal policy. Is that wise? Or should market forces be allowed to play out more & free us from the constant intervention of the central planners? To explore this, we welcome economist Dr Arthur Laffer. Dr Laffer was the first to hold the title of Chief Economist at...

In order to succeed, it's critical to understand the rules you're playing by. And the rules for investing may have recently changed. There's a good argument to be made that we are now in an era of fiscal dominance. Today's guest, one of the smarter you'll get the chance to hear from, is certainly making that case. So what exactly is fiscal dominance? Why is it important for investors to understand? And which assets do well, and which do poorly, in such an era? To find out, we have the...

Is the market downdraft that sent stocks 5% lower from their recent all-time highs over? It's looking like it could be. But the market is at a "critical juncture" observes portfolio manager Lance Roberts. The S&P is getting quite close to its 50 and 20 Daily Moving Averages. If it rises above them, then we're likely back off to the races and new all-time highs could be in the future. But if it fails to do so, then a fall back to the 100 Daily Moving Average is more likely in...

With the market now expecting less than 2 rate cuts this year -- perhaps none at all until next year according to Bank of America -- what does that mean for the economy? Can it handle "higher for even longer" interest rates without slowing markedly? Or, even worse, something systemic breaking? And what impact will these higher rates likely have on stock, bonds and other asset prices? To find out, we're fortunate today to talk with money manager Michael Pento. president of Pento Portfolio...

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com Stocks have sold off sharply since hitting all time highs just 3 weeks ago. Bond prices are falling, too. What's going on here? Is this just a needed pullback to remove excessive froth before the market resumes rising to all-time highs? Or is this a more significant reversal? For a professional's perspective, we turn to John Llodra and Mike...

On the famous fear/greed index, after spending most of the past year and half in "greed", we've suddenly switched to "fear" over a very short time frame. The S&P has broken below both its 20 and 50 Daily Moving Averages. Inflation printed hotter than expected, making Wall Street start to doubt the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver expected rate cuts. And geopolitical tensions have puckered tighter following the escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel. Is the exuberant...

Well, the relentless bull rally that began in November is over. Stocks fell hard this week, with the S&P breaking below 5000 on Friday. It's now down nearly 300 points from its all-time hit, which it hit just 3 weeks ago. How low is this pullback likely to go? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss just that in this week's Market Recap, as well as sticky inflation, rising bond yields, lackluster retail sales and the dangerous warning the NFIB data is sending about jobs. And as...

The headline economic data gives a comforting sense the economy is strong. The media headlines tell us the consumer is "resilient" But if you ask most Americans, they'll tell you they're struggling. Last year, a Forbes Advisor survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents either identified as living paycheck to paycheck (40%) or—even more concerning—reported that their income doesn’t even cover their standard expenses (29%). So why is there such a big disconnect here? For context, we're...

This is a live Special Report with geopolitical expert Ryan Bohl, MidEast analyst for the RANE Network. Given the serious nature of and confusion around the escalation of hostilities between Iran & Israel, I've brought Ryan on the program to ask him: - The drivers of tension between Iran and Israel - What led to this weekend's attack? - What do you expect to happen from here? - What impact is this conflict having on the global economy & financial markets? - If things escalate, how...

The price of gold has experienced a breakout over the past month and a half. What does that mean? Is that a sign that investors are worried about higher inflation to come? Or that capital is fleeing to safety in advance of approaching economic trouble? Or is this price surge due to speculative zeal? For answers, we turn to capital manager Axel Merk and his team at Merk Investments, who manage several funds that invest in the precious metal sector. We'll also ask them their thoughts on...

When I last interviewed today's guest back in December, he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into 2024. And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money. The S&P 500 & NASDAQ both increased by 11% in Q1 So what is his model telling us to expect in Q2? To find out we'll ask the man himself. Today we have the good fortune of speaking with Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42...

The unending string of up weeks we saw in stocks in Q1 has ended here in April. The market had a volatile week, with the S&P ending roughly 100 points lower and bond yields continuing to rise, with the UST 10-year now over 4.5% Notably, the S&P has broken below the bullish trendline it has been trading in since the bull rally began back in November.The breakdown is unconfirmed as of yet. But if stocks close a little lower from here without regaining their 20 Daily Moving Average,...

In Q1, investors could do no wrong. Making money was easy as almost every asset class rose to new highs as markets anticipated coming interest rate cuts from. But here at the start of Q2, things are starting to feel a lot less safe. Suddenly stock prices are plateauing, and services inflation plus a swiftly rising oil price are quickly dashing hopes of rate cuts anytime soon. Will the markets offer a bumpier ride from here? To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with David...

Today's guest expert is concerned that too many investors, giddy with the ferocious market gains since November, are increasingly willing to pay prices for assets that only make sense if the pace of gains continues into the far future. This is called "extrapolating the unsustainable" and is a hallmark of late stage price melt-ups. Historically, this behavior has not ended well for those engaging in it. Will it prove different this time? To find out, as well as hear his outlook for...

There's a lot of uncertainty in the world right now -- geopolitical, economic, social, and environmental. At times like this when the path forward is unclear and the stakes are high, it's wise to tap the counsel of those with a strong command of the lessons of history, and the practical experience of a lifetime in the market trenches. There are few who fit that description better than Dr Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of ‘’The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’Colorful, brash &...

Are cracks starting to appear in the bull market rally? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks so. His technical dashboard is now showing sell signals as volatility is increasing and the S&P has broken beneath its 20 Daily Moving Average.Next week should be telling. If the S&P rises and closes back above its 20 DMA, that should mean the bull trend is intact. But if not, and the 20 DMA becomes resistance instead of support, that's a strong sign the rally is cooked for now. We...