Photovoltaics in transition towards a mainstream electricity provider - in developed and emerging economies (2012-04-16 at 16:10)
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Description
Until recently Photovoltaics (PV) has been seen as a useful and elegant provider of electricity to interesting markets like powering of satellites, industrial off-grid solutions and consumer applications. Only few could foresee the enormous growth over the last decade and even more surprising to many was the associated price decrease. The volume growth of the worldwide PV market was mainly influenced by market support programs like the Feed-in tariff (EEG) in Germany in 2001 and followed by more than 50 countries by now. Today we are with the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) equal or near to the retail price of electricity to households in most European countries ("dynamic grid parity") and will soon reach the generation cost for peak power production ("generation parity"). The price development of PV LCOE as function of cumulative PV installations will be described with the help of Price Experience Curves. Evidence is given that a further cost and price decrease will occur with PV in analogy to other industries like electronic and flat panel display products. Interestingly enough, as we transition towards a mainstream electricity supplier in developed countries, where we will also integrate storage to increase self consumption of the PV electricity produced locally, we have the necessary price structure available to provide cost effectively electricity to the many billions of people in emerging economies. It is the modularity of PV system components which makes it possible to benefit from the cost decrease of the technology driven development similarly for small solar home systems in rural areas, for kW up to MW roof systems in towns and villages and up to 100+MW systems for large scale use.
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