If you want to shape the development and forecast the consequences of powerful AI technology, it's important to know when it might appear. In this episode, I talk to Ajeya Cotra about her draft report "Forecasting Transformative AI from Biological Anchors" which aims to build a probabilistic model to answer this question. We talk about a variety of topics, including the structure of the model, what the most important parts are to get right, how the estimates should shape our behaviour, and Ajeya's current work at Open Philanthropy and perspective on the AI x-risk landscape. Unfortunately, there was a problem with the recording of our interview, so we weren't able to release it in audio form, but you can read a transcript of the whole conversation. Link to the transcript Link to the draft report "Forecasting Transformative AI from Biological Anchors"