This time last year, not many people were predicting the economy would look like it does today. Many big name economists predicted that we would need to endure years of high unemployment to get inflation back down to a more manageable level. So why were those forecasts so off? And what lessons should we draw from what happened last year to inform our predictions for the economy this year? Roger Aliaga-Díaz is Vanguard's Global Head of Portfolio Construction and Chief Economist for the Americas. He joins us on this episode to talk about his outlook for the economy in the year ahead and how the last cycle is shaping his thinking. 1:57 - What's the outlook for Canada's economy this year. 3:04 - Why rates are likely to stay elevated for years to come. 7:11 - How government spending pushes rates higher. 9:08 - Why so many economists got inflation wrong and what lessons we can learn. 16:52 - What are the factors keeping inflation above the 2% target. 19:25 - How should ordinary investors think about allocating their investments this year. ----- Links: More episodes of Free Lunch by The Peak: https://readthepeak.com/shows/free-lunch Follow Taylor on Twitter: @taylorscollon Follow Sarah on Twitter: @sarahbartnicka Subscribe to The Peak's daily business newsletter: https://readthepeak.com/b/the-peak/subscribe