In this week's Macrocast, Ylan, John, and Brendan unpack the global instability and domestic politics contributing to macroeconomic uncertainty. The group begins with a discussion of the oil markets, impacted most recently by U.S. strikes against Houthi rebels and geopolitics more broadly. Other factors, such as weak demand and rising U.S. reserves have put downward pressure on crude oil prices and contributed to price swings. Ylan, Brendan, and John continue their conversation about international affairs by unraveling the potential 'geopolitical recession' that could impact both giants like Tesla and your local gas station. The episode then dives into the Federal Reserve's high-stakes maneuvers around inflation and interest rates. Ylan, Brendan, and John then turn to domestic politics, with a focus on House Speaker Mike Johnson in his new role facing the looming government funding countdown that helped sink his predecessor, Speaker McCarthy. The group considers the implications of yet another stopgap spending bill amidst an election year. Finally, the group taps into the Republican frontrunners facing-off in Iowa next week, whose economic visions reveal subtle yet critical policy differences, especially on the trade front with China.