Earlier this month, Americans went to the polls for the midterm elections. While some were expecting a red wave, what resulted was more of a red ripple with Republicans garnering a slim majority in the House and Democrats likely maintaining control of the Senate. In today's politically polarized climate, divided government means gridlock, and as the country grapples with high inflation, the potential for recession and heightened geopolitical tensions, this will have important implications for...

The global pandemic, supply chain problems and heightened geopolitical tensions from Russia's war in Ukraine have all raised questions about whether the long trend towards globalization is being thrown into reverse. Our 2023 Long Term Capital Market Assumptions, available now, features a paper that tackles the future of globalization. In this episode, Stephanie Aliaga interviews two of the authors from the paper, Dr. David Kelly and Kerry Craig, to discuss the potential future paths of...

In this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, for a discussion on the outlook for U.S. equities and what investors can expect from 3Q22 earnings season. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and slowing consumer demand have all posed considerable headwinds to U.S. equities and contributed to the large selloffs experienced in markets this year. As third-quarter earnings season kicks off, investors are hoping to gain...

In an already challenging year for markets, the energy crisis in Europe and recent fiscal actions by the UK government have rattled market sentiment and caused further disruption to currency and global bond markets. A higher reliance on Russian supply has put Europe in a particularly vulnerable position as winter approaches, with electricity prices soaring and increased risk of gas shortages. All of this, and its consequences for consumer spending and business confidence, has increased the...

This episode kicks off our fifth season of Insights Now. Over the course of this season, Dr. David Kelly will sit down with a slate of market strategists and subject matter experts to discuss topics such as the implications of aggressive Fed tightening, the European energy crisis, equity market volatility, and the future of globalization to try to provide some insight into investing in this very stormy climate. On the episode, we tackle important questions for investors surrounding the...

Investors have had a challenging year so far, however, while outlook remains cloudy, investors should remember that the U.S. has always been an economy of long summers and short winters. While winter may be coming soon, much of the "bad news" might already be priced into markets, and investors may be wise to take advantage of the correction in valuations to position portfolios for the long summer, or expansion, ahead. For the last episode this season, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley,...

2022 has been a challenging year for most public asset classes, leaving many investors at odds on how to position portfolios, protect against inflation and identify areas for potential excess returns going forward. While markets have been more challenging, the need for income, capital appreciation and capital preservation has not changed. That’s where alternative investments may provide some solutions. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist, to...

Today, as investors mull the increasing risk of a U.S. recession, the strength in the labor market can be a double-edged sword. On one end, a healthy labor market with red-hot demand for workers could protect the economy from high unemployment in the next recession. On the other end, too-hot of a labor market gives the Fed a greater need to act aggressively to tame inflation and prevent an overheating economy, which very well might push the economy into a recession. On this episode, Dr. David...

As investors mull recession risks, they will also soon have to grapple with the midterm elections and how changes in politics may cause uncertainty in the economic outlook. As rates have risen on the back of Fed tightening, does this pose an issue for the government's ability to service the debt? After two years of extraordinary fiscal stimulus, what is outlook for fiscal spending going forward and what are its implications for investors? On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Meera...

The equity markets have seen a tumultuous and fairly disappointing few months in 2022. Investor sentiment has turned extremely bearish due to a land war in Ukraine, a more hawkish and aggressive Fed, and rising and persistent inflation. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Andrew Tyler, Head of U.S. Market Intelligence, to discuss the current state of equity markets, the factors driving recent volatility, the takeaways form 1Q22 earnings season and the further implications of the...

While the 21st Century has seen a wide variety of housing markets with massive booms and busts, never in all these years, have there been so few properties on the market. This has fueled a surge in home prices that might look reminiscent of the 2006 housing boom. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Mike Kelly, Head of US Real Estate, to discuss the current housing market, the surge in housing costs, and the long term impacts of the pandemic on certain real estate sectors. For...

The last few months have seen a swift and significant recalibration in markets. Inflation looks to be higher and stickier than previously assumed. The Fed has shifted more hawkish, now penciling upwards of seven hikes in 2022 and eyeing a faster pace of balance sheet reduction. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Phil Camporeale, Portfolio Manager on the Multi-Asset Solutions group at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss asset allocation in an environment with higher uncertainty...

The Federal Reserve recently hiked interest rates for the first time since 2018 and delivered a hawkish surprise to investors by way of its updated dot plot and economic projections. Since the Fed cut rates to zero in March 2020, the U.S. economy has well recovered with inflation running persistently well above the Fed's 2% target. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jordan Jackson, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the new outlook for the Fed and...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought horrible human consequences, but for investors it’s also raised a lot of questions. On this episode, we review the broad implications of the Russian invasion for investors in a special roundtable interview. Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Maccarrone, equity research analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and retired General Mastin Robeson, member of the Academy Security's Geopolitical Team, in a discussion moderated by Stephanie Aliaga,...

On today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the efforts against climate change and the investment opportunities that may underlie this transition towards a more sustainable future. As the need to fight climate change has become more pronounced, sustainable investing has increasingly come into focus for investors. This episode discusses the outlook for U.S. climate spending, Europe’s energy transition as...

On the first episode of Season 4, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss what investors should expect from China in the Year of the Tiger and beyond. As China rings in the New Year, the road ahead holds substantial political and economic significance, from the Winter Olympics in Beijing to the Communist Party's 20th National Congress. China also faces substantial challenges in managing a potential property bubble,...

Dr. David Kelly sits down with Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to discuss the investment outlook for 2022. Despite the continued pandemic, the U.S. economy saw a powerful recovery in 2021 across equity markets, the labor market, and overall economic growth. Yet in recent months, investors have had to weigh a series of risks to both economic growth and market returns: the Fed is shifting more hawkish, inflation has surged, and valuations sit at lofty...

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly sits down with Michael Conrath, Head of Education Savings at J.P. Morgan and author of the College Planning Essentials publication, to discuss the importance of saving for college and how to accumulate these savings most efficiently. What is a college education worth against the rapid rise in college tuition over the past few decades? Can families depend on financial aid or fiscal policy to cover most of these expenses? If you can’t rely on aid, how should...

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly sits down with Karen Ward, Chief Market Strategist for EMEA at J.P. Morgan Asset Management and author of the Europe and UK Guide to the Markets publications, to discuss the outlook for Europe. After disruptions from “Brexit” seem have settled down, the onslaught of the pandemic paved the way for a togetherness of Europe not seen in decades. The EU Recovery Fund may be just the accelerant to growth in Europe that investors have been waiting for. Still,...

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly sits down with David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management and author of the Guide to Alternatives publication, to discuss the role of alternative assets in portfolios. Investors have been increasingly interested in alternatives, but for many, this is still unfamiliar territory. How should we think about investing in alternatives vs. traditional stocks and bonds? Against a backdrop of rising inflation and interest rates where the...

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is interviewed by Stephanie Aliaga, strategy analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the advent of cryptocurrencies and whether this new asset class should have a place in portfolios. Can cryptocurrencies achieve their fundamental goal of being a store of value and payment system? How do cryptocurrencies function as an asset class, and is there a benefit them as an allocation in portfolios? Tune in to hear Dr. Kelly’s take on the matter, and...

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Nick Leventis, senior healthcare analyst for the Innovators strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the genomic health revolution. Healthcare spending now amounts to almost 18% of GDP and chronic conditions are on the rise while baby boomers are just beginning to retire. The need for high quality care is becoming more and more important. Genomics, or the study of genes, is making it possible to predict, diagnose, and treat diseases...

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Manish Goyal from J.P. Morgan Asset Management, who has over 25 years of investment experience in the tech industry and manages strategies that focus on digital evolution and innovation. The pandemic accelerated years of technological adoption and innovation, with strides made in the digitization of the consumer, integration of enterprise IT, and a massive migration of business, communication, and recreation to online platforms. As we look past...

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Gabriela Santos, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the recent developments in China and how they fit into the context of China’s long term growth story. While Chinese markets were the strongest outperformers in the pandemic-stricken year of 2020, they have since experienced significant bumps along the road as a result of a new regulatory crackdown and resurgence of coronavirus cases. This has weighed on equity...

On today’s episode Dr. David Kelly is joined by Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, to discuss the outlook for further fiscal stimulus with the infrastructure bill and budget reconciliation bill making their way through Congress. Discussion topics include: details of the infrastructure bill and Biden’s green energy ambitions, expectations for the larger budget reconciliation bill, the possibility of a debt-ceiling standoff, the 2022 midterms, and the...