Jay Powell invited for a massive risk asset party after the Fed opened the door for several cuts in 2023. Will the Fed suddenly prove to be the most dovish of the big central banks anyway? We assess the outlook for the big three central banks while also discussing whether this is a mid-cycle rate cutting cycle or the start of a recession.    Our guest of the week, Raoul Pal, thinks we are in an early cycle dynamic and that central banks are late to react to what was a recessionary pricing of risk assets in 2022.