This week on Sinica, Kaiser welcomes back Lyle Goldstein, director for China engagement at the think tank Defense Priorities and previously a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, where he taught for 20 years. Lyle offers his perspectives on an extensive wargaming exercise focusing on a Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan, conducted under the auspices of CSIS (the Center for Strategic and International Studies) and published in January of this year — the first such exercise whose findings were made public. He offers insight into the real value of the exercise, as well as some of its shortcomings. 01:03 – The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan – the first large-scale publicly available wargame conducted by CSIS 04:05 – The history of wargaming and its significance 09:09 – What is the value of wargaming? 13:12 – The physical setup of the wargames and the role of dice and technology in contingency 17:49 – The assumptions that go into the game 22:05 – How much agency do the players have? 24:16 – How are the decisions of other countries factored in the wargame? 26:11 – Pros and cons of the CSIS wargame 31:57 – Thoughts on the possibility of nuclear escalation 38:43 – A take on the report’s assumptions and conclusions 47:37 – Will we get a warning? A complete transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com. Recommendations: CSIS Report: The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Lyle: Yin Yu Tang in Peabody Essex Museum, Salem, Massachusetts Kaiser: The Story of Civilization [Volumes 1 to 11] by Will & Ariel Durant Our Oriental Heritage: The Story of Civilization, Volume 1 by Will Durant Mentioned: Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry by Lyle J. Goldstein See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.