This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a 'highlight' clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode -- without ads or interruptions -- the following day, on Aug. 30. To find out more about premium subscriptions, visit our Substack. Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets. Content Highlights The 'soft landing' scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that's wrong (1:32); Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44); The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53); The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58); The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48); Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45); New segment: Listener questions. Whoever's questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36); Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42); One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35). For more about the guest, visit her website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X. Not investment advice.