E104: Stripe 2024 revenue at $17b?, only 3.8x multiple!; Telegram’s $30b valuation!; SpaceX Starship successful 3rd test-flight; Tiktok US at $153b valuation if standalone biz? | Pre-IPO Stock Market Update – Mar 15, 2024
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00:07 | Stripe 2024 revenue at $17b?, only 3.8x multiple! - $1 trillion in 2023 total payment volume, +25% vs 2022 - Stripe 15yrs vs PayPal 23yrs to get to $1t - Estimated $17b in 2023 revenue, positive cash flow - $65b Feb 2024 tender, 3.8x revenue multiple is a steal 02:19 | Telegram’s $30b valuation! - 900m monthly active users, +80% vs 2021; on track for 1b users by Dec 2024 - "hundreds of millions of dollars" from advertising and subscriptions revenue - $30b valuation from investors - Seeking IPO to maintain independence and drive company valuation 04:12 | SpaceX Starship successful 3rd test-flight - Starship is 400 feet tall, powered by 33 rockets - 5x payload of current Falcon9 rocket with lower cost per launch; incremental revenue AND profit - Starlink estimated to have a $103b valuation ($3.4b in annual recurring revenue?) 06:24 | Tiktok US at $153b valuation if standalone biz? - Steven Mnuchin, former US Treasury Secretary, seeks to buy TikTok - US government is reviewing a bill that would require ByteDance to divest TikTok US biz - TikTok US has 170m users - ByteDance 2023 revenue is $120b (+20% vs 2022) and a $268b valuation, only a 2.4x revenue multiple (LOW!) - TikTok US has $16b of 2023 revenue, applying Meta revenue multiple (9.58x) it’s a $153b valuation business - Massive valuation unlock position for TikTok US by getting out of the ByteDance negative overhang? 09:09 | Pre-IPO +3.28% for week, +3.23% for last 1yr - Week winners: Chime +28.6%, eToro +21.9%, ScaleAI +20.5%, Ramp +12.3%, Flexport +7.2% - Week losers: Consensys -9.8%, OpenAI -4.5%, ByteDance -3.1%, Rippling -2.1%, Chainalysis -1.7% - Top valuations: ByteDance $276b, SpaceX $184b, OpenAI $103b, Stripe $68b, Databricks $49b
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