In our opening segment, we discuss the slight slowdown in global market share growth for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as some incentives to buy have ended, yet prices remain high. A scarcity of charging stations in Europe and the US also remains a deterrent for consumers. Our second segment, which starts at 9:40, focuses on the charging shortage and who will pay for expansion.

Artificial Intelligence or AI is predicted to have a profound impact on many areas of business. In this episode of Behind the Bonds we assess where AI innovation is already showing significant potential. Which industries can expect to see improved productivity and what are the potential timelines for any positive impact on credit quality? We also discuss the disruptive potential of these new technologies and the risks to jobs. Later in the episode our colleagues look in more depth at the...

In 2024 we see an uneven picture for companies across the globe. For those in North America and Asia-Pacific, excluding China, the credit outlook is stable. But in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America the outlook is negative. Driving this testing global environment are higher for longer interest rates which are raising the cost of borrowing and re-financing. This is a particular challenge for speculative-grade companies. Higher rates are also weighing on consumer demand in...

This year has been a very weak one for leveraged finance deals as aggressive global monetary tightening hit markets. In this episode we explain why we see a gradual improvement in 2024, with refinancings driving new issuance in the US and EMEA.

Retailers in North America and Europe are looking forward to another bustling holiday shopping season—but consumers may not be as eager this year as stores have hoped amid fairly high inflation, even with a strong labor market. Will 2024 get any better for retailers and makers of apparel? Later we look at the global transport sector—where container shipping continues to struggle, even while other modes of transportation look for improved earnings in 2024.

Private credit lenders built stores of capital that we expect will be put to work competing with banks to fund a new wave of leveraged buyouts. In the first segment of this episode, we discuss LBO competition and the risks it poses. Later, our guest lays out the concentration of private credit among a handful of giant asset managers building their own, largely self-contained lending ecosystems.

Big technology companies have been on a wild ride over the past few years, with the pandemic-driven boom followed by an inevitable hangover as economic uncertainty loomed. In the first segment of this episode, we examine the outlook for the global diversified information technology sector over the next 12-18 months. Then at 10.02 we discuss how the European Chips Act will help the region’s semiconductor manufacturers in the face of stiff competition from other parts of the world.

Airlines and airports are benefitting from booming demand from leisure travellers as people take to the skies for a well-deserved summer holiday. In the first segment of this episode, we look at what’s driving strong passenger traffic volumes at US and European airports and what operational challenges lie ahead. And then we explore the tailwinds keeping our outlook for the global airline industry positive for the next 12-18 months.

Moody’s analysts discuss the economic and credit outlook for China, including the role of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and their debt burdens, and the latest on the property sector.

We explore the impact that geopolitical tensions between the US and China are increasingly having on technology companies, particularly the vital semiconductor supply chain. Which companies are most affected and what are the implications for China’s domestic semiconductor industry? Then at 9.58, we delve into what is supporting revenue growth for global information technology services companies, as growth slows from exceptionally high levels during the pandemic.

Our industry sector outlooks provide insight into the fundamental business and credit conditions that companies face. But what’s the picture across the 18 sector outlooks right now as macroeconomic conditions shift – which sectors are on the up and which face problems? At 10:35 we take a deep dive into an industry that is hitting the headlines: global real estate, where the sector outlook recently went negative. Financial conditions are tightening, the cost of capital is rising and property...

In this episode, we discuss China’s stabilizing property sales and improving funding conditions. Then at 9:00, we look at Chinese insurers’ and banks’ exposure to the country’s property sector.

In this episode, we dissect the drivers of global light vehicle sales, automakers’ profit margins and the sector’s rapid electrification shift. Volume improvement will be most pronounced in Western Europe this year after the biggest drop-off on the war in Ukraine and associated supply chain difficulties. Sales in China will also be solid, with the unwinding of pandemic-related restrictions providing a boost to the economy and consumers. Then at 6:45, we look into the growth prospects of...

In this episode, we look at how companies that provide leisure and hospitality services like lodging, casinos, restaurants and cruises are faring. Our research shows that despite growing economic pressures and high inflation many consumers are still eager to splash the cash on entertainment and experiences. But which sectors and regions are likely to benefit the most from this post-pandemic buzz and how long will the party last? Then, at 8:22 minutes, we delve into the world of cinema where...

Moody’s analysts discuss accelerating electric vehicle sales’ effects on US auto insurers and auto finance captives, and implications for state fuel taxes.

In this episode, we examine the effects of rising interest rates on real estate operating companies and real estate investment trusts in two major regions – Europe and Asia-Pacific. In the former, higher rates have driven a deterioration in credit quality across the sector. And we expect commercial property values to decline in the coming months. On the other hand, business conditions are generally better in Asia-Pacific and valuations have held steady. At 11:50, we check in on the state of...

Investors have long seen the vast healthcare industry as a defensive sector. In good times and bad, consumers will still need everything from pharmaceuticals to medical devices to for-profit hospitals. But how strong is the healthcare industry today? Companies in all healthcare segments are wrestling with ongoing pressure to reduce costs from governments and private insurers alike. With a wave of maturities slowly approaching, how strong is the threat of US healthcare company defaults? At ...

Reduced supplies of natural gas and soaring prices stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are squeezing companies in Europe, which are also grappling with slowing economic growth, high inflation and rising interest rates. In the first segment of this podcast, we look at the effect of these stresses on European companies’ credit quality and the most vulnerable sectors. Then, at 9:35, we explain why the US will have trouble boosting its ability to export its abundant natural gas to Europe.

In this episode, we discuss our 2023 outlook for nonfinancial companies across the globe. We start with what's driving fundamental credit conditions in North America, EMEA, China, Latin America and Asia-Pacific excluding China, and how those drivers differ across the regions. Then, at 10:56 minutes, we take a deep dive into the consumer products sector and factors affecting demand next year for everything from toilet paper to tobacco, beauty to beverages.

In this episode, we look into the two big drivers of credit quality for companies right now: interest rates and supply chains. Around the world, central banks have been raising interest rates in a bid to cool inflation. But higher interest rates can have a big effect on companies. Our study on US companies showed that rising rates will hit lower-rated companies particularly hard. Then, at 9:04 minutes, we examine the reasons for supply chain problems that have persisted since the covid...

The leveraged finance market – leveraged loans and high-yield bonds – has expanded considerably in recent years and now represents around $4 trillion in outstanding debt worldwide. In the first segment of this podcast, we look at how the tide of liquidity that helped the market grow so much is turning now and what tighter, pricier credit means for speculative-grade companies. Then, at 8:45 minutes, we examine the role of private equity firms in this market and the risks for companies they own.

The coronavirus pandemic has changed the way many of us work and live, and that has a huge effect on the real estate sector. In the first segment of this podcast, we discuss the global outlook for the real estate sector, the rising risks and the differences among regions. Then, at 9:07 minutes, we focus on the weaknesses in China’s property sector.

If there’s one sector that affects virtually every other corporate sector you can think of, it’s energy—oil, fuel and natural gas. From food, to travel, to tech, costs and selling prices all depend in part on energy costs. And those energy costs have been through the roof in 2022, especially after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. High energy prices are good news for credit quality in the oil and gas industry. But, as we discuss in our second segment starting at 08:05, the military...