Export opportunities for South Africa's agricultural products are opening up within BRICS+ countries. Over the past two years, China, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have widened market access for various agricultural products from South Africa. Admittedly, Egypt and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have recently joined the BRICS+ grouping, and market access is part of the long-term bilateral engagements with South Africa. South Africa has access to selected fruits, wine, wool, meat and...

Many, including myself, may have been a bit pessimistic about the 2023/24 summer crop growing conditions when we signalled a potential further downward revision of the harvest estimate this month. The data released last week by the Crop Estimates Committee showed mild upward adjustments in the crop size from last month's figures. South Africa's 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed harvest is estimated at 16,0 million tonnes, up 1% from last month. Indeed, this is not a cause for celebration....

There are divergent views about the effectiveness and extent to which South Africa's agricultural policies have been implemented. Regardless of how experts feel about the capacity of the state and the policy stance of the South African government since the dawn of democracy, the one undeniable fact is that the sector has grown tremendously. Data from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development show that domestic agricultural output in 2022/23 was twice as much as in...

South Africa has experienced two months of extremely dry and hot weather — February and March. The impact of harsh weather conditions on agriculture across the country is visible through crop failures. The 2023/24 summer grain and oilseed production is down 21% year-on-year, estimated at 15.8 million tonnes. We are now at an advanced stage of crop development where there would be minimal to no improvement, even if it rains. Indeed, if one reflects on the past few days, we have received some...

The past two years presented major challenges for the South African livestock industry. The spread of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) and higher feed costs were the two major factors that weighed on their business. As farmers, various feedlots, and the government worked to control the spread of the FMD, the impact was deepening on the revenues of farming businesses as they suddenly had to limit the movement of animals, and various export markets were temporarily closed. In the case of the...

This month, we will have farmers in the Western Cape likely begin to prepare the soil for the 2024/25 winter crop production season by the end of April into May. Other major winter crop-producing provinces, such as Free State, Limpopo and the Northern Cape, will likely start around the end of May. The production of winter crops outside the Western Cape has sizable irrigation support. These regions should benefit from the relatively higher dam levels from the early summer rainfall. In...

Since the release of the previous report of South Africa's Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) at the end of February 2024, the weather conditions across the country have remained unfavourable. Thus, we are not surprised that the CEC further lowered its production forecasts for South Africa's summer grain and oilseeds this afternoon. The CEC now forecasts South Africa's 2023/24 total grain and oilseeds production at 15.8 million tonnes, down 9% from last month and 21% lower than last season's...

While the summer grain and oilseeds production prospects for the 2023/24 season seem bleak in Southern Africa because of the excessive dryness and heatwave, the global production conditions remain reasonably optimistic. On March 14, the International Grains Council (IGC) released its monthly update of the 2023/24 global grain and oilseeds production, with some upside adjustments for significant crops. For example, the 2023/24 global maize harvest forecast at 1,2 billion tonnes, up 6%...

The damaging effects of persistent dryness and heatwave in South Africa's summer crop-growing regions have raised concerns about a possible rise in consumer food inflation in the coming months. With South Africa's food price inflation averaging 11% in 2023 (from 9.5% in 2022, 6.5% in 2021, and 4.8% in 2020), which was relatively high compared with recent periods, talk of further upside pressure in inflation comes as an unwelcome development. However, the underlying drivers of the increase...

South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe have recently published reports indicating a potential decline in grain harvest because of intense El Niño-induced dryness. These developments could put the entire Southern African maize supply chain at risk, with Zambia and South Africa hard hit by heatwaves and dryness. The neighbouring small producers such as Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia are also struggling with dryness. Given that South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe are among the largest maize...

Despite all the challenges at the ports and various export markets, the South African agricultural sector has continued to realize excellent export activity. Total agricultural exports reached a new record of US$13.2 billion in 2023, up 3% from the previous year. This is stronger than our earlier expectations of a modest export activity this year. The products that dominated the export list were citrus, maize, apples and pears, nuts, wine, soybeans, sugar, wool, grapes, berries, avocados...

Wandile Sihlobo unpacks the latest agriculture trends and statistics in this podcast. After a notable jump in the third quarter of 2023 to 956,000, South Africa's primary agricultural employment fell by 4% quarter-on-quarter to 920,000 in the last quarter of 2023. Jobs declined mainly in the Eastern Cape, Western Cape, Gauteng, Mpumalanga and Limpopo.

The excessive heat across South Africa currently is a significant concern for the farming sector. The 2023/24 summer crop season started on favourable footing. We received widespread rains, which was unusual in an El Niño season, which would typically start with drier weather conditions. According to data from the Crop Estimates Committee, the farmers managed to plant a sizable summer grain and oilseed area of 4,4 million hectares, up by 0,4% from the 2022/23 season. For a while, it...

We start the year with reasonably weak agricultural machinery sales data. South Africa's tractor sales were down 26% y/y in January 2024, with 353 units sold. At the same time, the combine harvesters were down 50% y/y, with eight units sold. At face value, this could be viewed as a worrying agricultural machinery sales report indicating difficulties in the sector. But we have a different reading of it. This is more of a normalization after a few years of robust sales. For example, South...

South Africa could have yet another decent summer grains and oilseeds harvest in the 2023/24 production season. The data released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee puts the preliminary area plantings for summer grains and oilseeds at 4,41 million hectares, up by 0,4% y/y (albeit down mildly from 4,48 million hectares of the intended area when the season started). This increase is not limited to a few crops but across most summer crops except for soybeans, where plantings...

One positive bit of news I noticed this past week is about South Africa's beef industry, with an encouraging headline stating, "Saudi Arabia to start South African meat imports as ban ends". This means everything is now in order for Saudi Arabia to import beef from South Africa. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has not featured prominently in South Africa's beef export markets in the past, with only small volumes last exported in the early 2000s. The renewed access to this market is critical to...

South Africa’s filed crop harvest was excellent in 2022/23 season. For example, the 2022/23 maize harvest amounted to 16,4 million, which is 6% higher than the 2021/22 season's harvest and the second-largest harvest on record. Soybean harvest is at a record 2,8 million tonnes. South Africa's sugar cane crop was at 18,5 million tonnes in 2023/24, up 3% y/y. Other field crops and fruit harvests were also decent in 2023. Still, this excellent performance did not translate into overall robust...

South Africa's 2023/24 winter crop season has turned out better than some feared. The data released at the end of December 2023 by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) painted a positive picture of South Africa's winter crop harvest. In its fifth production estimate for the 2023/24 season, the CEC kept the wheat harvest estimate unchanged from the previous month, at 2,15 million tonnes. This is 2% up from the last season's crop. The only concern some producers had was the crop quality...

One can categorise the start of this year as positive for South Africa’s agriculture. I recently drove across the country from Pretoria to the Wild Coast, which was an opportunity to assess South Africa's agricultural conditions after the first few months of the summer season. The vegetation was welcoming and green throughout the way, having benefitted from the early summer favourable rainfall. In areas planted early in the season, the maize fields looked healthy. Other crops were also...

As the year draws to a close, it is worth reflecting on critical events that dominated the South African agricultural scene this year. There is three in particular that stood out. First, the intense and persistent load-shedding right from the start of the year was a significant challenge for South Africa's agriculture and agribusinesses. The impact became apparent when one considers that all of South Africa's horticulture – fruits and vegetables depend on irrigation that needs an adequate...

South Africa's agricultural exports amounted to US$3.9 billion in the third quarter of this year, up by 4% y/y (according to data from Trade Map). This quarter, the products that dominated the export list were citrus, maize, apples and pears, nuts, wine, soybeans, sugar, and fruit juices. This solid export activity was both a function of improvement in volumes and prices, specifically of fruits. This more than offsets the effects of lower grains and oilseed prices, which have declined...

The data released this past week by the Crop Estimates Committee continue to paint a reasonably positive picture of South Africa's winter crop harvest, albeit with minor downward monthly revisions of the crop size. The primary issue on farmers' minds is perhaps not crop size but the deterioration in quality following heavy floods in the Western Cape in September. The Western Cape is a significant producer of winter crops, accounting for roughly two-thirds of South Africa's total winter...

Food inflation has been topical over the past few months, and South Africa saw double-digit levels from mid-2022 to mid-2023. This was not unique to South Africa but a global phenomenon underpinned by various factors, including drought in South America, China's strong demand for grains and oilseed, higher energy prices, and the Russia-Ukraine war, amongst other factors. Positively, from March 2023, South Africa's consumer food price inflation began to slow, from 14,4% at that time to 8,0%...

The solid production conditions in South Africa's agricultural sector continue to be reflected in the employment data. For example, the data released today by Statistics South Africa showed that in the third quarter of 2023, about 956 000 people were employed in primary agriculture, up 10% year-on-year (and 7% quarter-on-quarter). This is well above the long-term agricultural employment of 793 000. From a regional perspective, the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal,...