Navigating the volatile landscape of geopolitics and its implications on emerging markets has become critical in this uncertain economic climate. In this episode, we provide an in-depth analysis of the current geopolitical landscape, its profound impact on emerging markets, and the risk factors on our radar. This episode features PGIM Fixed Income’s Cathy Hepworth, CFA, Head of Emerging Markets Debt, Mehill Marku, Lead Geopolitical Analyst, and host, Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist. ...

With significant repricing across all commercial real estate (CRE) sectors, normalizing rent growth, and rising expenses, it’s time to revisit and reassess the CRE space. Get our thoughts on the CRE market today, implications for the banking sector, and risk factors we’re monitoring. This episode features PGIM Fixed Income’s David Jiang, U.S. Investment Grade Credit Research Analyst, Jason Pan, CFA, FSA, Securitized Products Credit Research Analyst, and host, Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S....

Despite fluctuating post-pandemic interest rates, the U.S. economy has shown unexpected resilience. Contrary to predictions of a possible recession the U.S. economy continues to show signs of economic growth. In this episode of All the Credit®, Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist, hosts Guillermo Felices, PhD and George Jiranek, CFA, two of PGIM Fixed Income’s global investment strategists, for an analysis of U.S. interest rate fluctuations and their ripple effect on the economy, including...

In the current climate of rising premiums and inflationary pressures, the insurance industry faces significant challenges. In this episode of All the Credit®, Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist, and Pinto Suri, U.S. Investment Grade Credit Research Analyst, examine the complexities of the auto and home insurance sectors, challenges facing issuers in the post-pandemic environment, effects on insurers' pricing strategies, implications for CPI, and considerations for investors. Recorded on...

In recent months, GLP-1 drugs have been thrust into the spotlight, amplified by increased media attention and several headline-grabbing comments from large retailers. In this episode of All the Credit®, host Brian Barnhurst, CFA, Co-Head of Credit Research, is joined by U.S. Leveraged Finance Credit Research Analysts, Elizabeth Halpin, CFA, Richard Kus, CFA, and Scott Swanson, CFA, to consider the investment implications of GLP-1s across fixed income markets and industries. Recorded on...

Rates have sharply increased in the past 18 months and at PGIM Fixed Income, we anticipate they will remain elevated. In this episode of All the Credit®, Brian Barnhurst, CFA, Co-Head of Credit Research, is joined by guests Mick Meyler, Head of Developed Market Rates, and Tom Porcelli, Chief U.S. Economist, to examine the core factors supporting our view of higher-for-longer rates. The trio also discuss the end of the hiking cycle, weigh the impact of fiscal deficits on long-term rates, and...

While U.S. money center banks have emerged as an attractive subsegment of the U.S. investment grade corporate market, European banks face unique challenges sustaining their market prominence. Given the fragility of the Eurozone’s economy, with an anticipated growth of 0.5% both this year and next, the spotlight on the relative attractiveness of European banks has made its way to the forefront.  In this episode of All the Credit ®, host Michael Roper, CFA, European Investment Grade...

Investors could be pardoned if they have whiplash, but the fact is that interest rates go through paradigm shifts. Indeed, they just migrated from a decade of ultra-low levels back to what may be a sustained period back “home” in their long-term 3-5% range. Just as investors never caught up with the 40-year secular decline in rates, the inverted curve could be with us for some time, leaving a boon for yield-curve strategies. Furthermore, with the vast majority of rate hikes behind us,...

With our macro base case calling for below trend, but positive growth and elevated inflation, we see a fairly healthy environment for credit and credit returns looking forward. In this episode of All the Credit®, we’ll take a closer look at the high-quality credit spectrum, where solid nominal yields, reasonable credit spreads, and durable credit fundamentals could be attractive to fixed income investors. Alternatively, even if the economy proves less resilient than expected, tactically...

Amid the dog days of summer, we’re serving up the latest episode of All the Credit® on an industry that produces the alcoholic beverage of choice for a large swath of consumers—beer. Who are the main players in the big brewing industry and what’s their market share? How are their products holding their own in a market saturated with options such as craft brews, seltzers, and non-alcoholic substitutes? PGIM Fixed Income’s Elitza Fleischman, CPA, U.S. Investment Grade Credit Research Analyst,...

Quantitative tightening (QT), the unwinding of the large scale of purchases of a broad range of financial assets by central banks, has become a feature of monetary policy since the great financial crisis. Though central banks around the world have already started this process, given the many distractors in the market, such as the global banking crisis and the U.S. debt ceiling brinkmanship, QT has gone on somewhat unnoticed. That said, as we near the end of hiking cycles and the paths of...

Just a few months ago, the market was confident that post global financial crisis, financial sector reforms, and regulatory scrutiny ensured that the U.S. banking system was rock solid, and that the next cycle's culprit would emanate from elsewhere. However, banking is once again front and center as investors weigh systematic risks from another prospective real estate crunch—this time in the commercial property sector. In this episode of PGIM Fixed Income’s All the Credit®, with guests...

With “x-date” looming, concerns about a potential default are weighing on financial markets and the global economy. As the nation’s solvency hangs in the balance, Daleep Singh, PGIM Fixed Income’s Chief Global Economist and Head of Macroeconomic Research, joins this episode of All the Credit® to discuss this U.S. government fiscal fiasco. To begin, Daleep lays the groundwork with a brief history of the U.S. debt ceiling, including some of the recent impasses that may act as a guide for the...

After years of strict COVID lockdowns, China’s domestic consumer economy is rapidly re-opening. Meanwhile, global manufacturing—normally an area of Chinese dominance—is being challenged by tighter credit conditions after years of progressive central bank hawkishness. In addition, the country still finds itself in the global geopolitical crosshairs as highly restrictive policies against China remain. In this episode of All the Creditâ, PGIM Fixed Income’s Gerwin Bell, PhD, Lead Economist for...

Recent global banking failures shook investors and markets alike, leaving many wondering if we’re witnessing a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis. In this episode of All the Credit®, Mick Meyler, Head of Developed Market Rates, and David Jiang, U.S. Investment Grade Credit Research Analyst, review the events of this latest crisis, discuss the potential for more bank runs, outline potential regulatory responses, and assess the impacts on bank earnings and credit fundamentals. The duo...

A confluence of higher debt levels, tightening central bank policies, and weakening growth are raising red flags around borrower credit quality as signs of financial strain are beginning to emerge. Against this backdrop and as a part of our integrated credit research processes, we remain on the lookout for potential problems across corporate borrowers, consumers, and commercial real estate, both in the near and long term. Listen to this episode of PGIM Fixed Income’s All the Credit® podcast...

The residential real estate market directly or indirectly impacts everyone. After all, everyone is born short a house. Home prices and construction activity also largely impact economic growth, wealth, inflation, and, for fixed income investors, residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). With the market suddenly in a downturn, should investors be prepared for lower house prices and rents? Declines in home construction and sales? Increased delinquencies and defaults on mortgages? In this...

Earlier this year, PGIM Fixed Income developed an inflation indicator tool that uses various economic variables to segregate the supply factors that explain the change in inflation, from those associated with demand. The end result helps us gain insight into the future direction of core goods inflation. On this episode of All the Credit®, Guillermo Felices, PhD, Global Investment Strategist, explains our proprietary inflation model and reviews the findings. Guillermo also: provides an...

For the first time in decades, long-term interest rates have broken out of their steady downtrend with recent spikes. Is this a temporary irregularity? Or has the rate environment reverted to a paradigm of sustained higher yields and returns from bonds? In this episode, Robert Tipp, CFA, examines how we arrived at “low for long,” and why it’s given way to generational highs in growth, inflation, and interest rates, creating a strategic buying opportunity in fixed income. Robert also provides...

On this special edition of All the Credit®, Mike Collins hands the mic to PGIM Fixed Income’s Co-Chief Investment Officer, Greg Peters, and newly appointed Chief Global Economist, Daleep Singh, to discuss: the current macro backdrop; central bank policy and response; impacts to the fixed income market; possible macro scenarios heading into 2023 and trends we’re watching; opportunities in fixed income; and how our investment process aims to help our clients thrive through this period of...

With the recent announcement of a major student loan forgiveness program in the U.S., we dissect the program and its implications for fixed income investors. PGIM Fixed Income’s Florence Chan, Head of ABS Research, and Scott Motta, of the Securitized Products portfolio team, are here to sort through all the details, including: a brief history of student loans in the U.S.; details on the new loan forgiveness program; thoughts on the economic and inflationary impact of the program;...

In a prior episode, we examined the broad economic implications of the European energy crisis as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the related effects of the conflict. And with the winter season fast approaching, we wanted to provide an update on the region’s energy situation. We’ve called on Katharine Neiss, PhD, Chief European Economist, and Magdalena Polan, Lead Economist for major EM economies in Central EU and the Middle East, to summarize the current state of affairs in...

After a challenging first half of the year for fixed income, we see reason for optimism ahead for a variety of sectors. PGIM Fixed Income Multi-sector Portfolio Manager, Lindsay Rosner, CFA, and Senior Portfolio Manager, Mike Collins, CFA, examine the state of individual fixed income sectors and share their top active management, relative-value ideas. We’re talking “all the opportunities” in this episode of All the Credit®! Recorded on August 2, 2022.

The current, compressed, and rapidly changing credit cycle, which has experienced dramatic swings in economics, policy, inflation, and corporate fundamentals, has been anything but typical. With a backdrop like this, investors’ and credit analysts’ heads are spinning trying to keep up! In this episode, Janet Crowe and Brian Barnhurst, CFA, PGIM Fixed Income’s Co-Heads of Credit Research, help us see the big picture in the underlying trends in corporate credit fundamentals, from earnings and...