If Jerome Powell dampened talk of a March rate cut on Wednesday then the January payrolls report on Friday stamped it out for good. In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing dives into the latest US jobs numbers to discuss what they say about the health of the labour market and what they signal about the timing of the first Fed rate cut this year.  Neil also talks to David Wilder about what’s happening with inflation and labour markets in Europe and the UK and whether generative AI is already giving productivity growth a boost.  David also talks to Kiran Raichura about the exposure of US banks to real estate loans. With $1.2tn in loans coming due over the coming two years, Kiran explains where distress is most likely and whether CRE’s problems threaten a crisis in the banking sector.