As the nation struggles to get back to some type normalcy, the reality is that we will see further shutdowns as we head into the winter months.   It’s impossible to forecast the full economic and financial impact of the pandemic, but we do know that many people are unlikely to return to normal work and economic consumption patterns anytime soon.  It’s also anticipated that  household and business defaults will likely increase and negatively affect the financial sector.   Joining the podcast...

In the past few months millions of people have lost their jobs and we have seen the most rapid spike in unemployment in history.  This is not your typical unemployment event and the way the government reports the unemployment rate may not have caught up with the new economy. Welcome to Capital Markets Today.  I am producing a series of podcasts that demonstrate to investors why distressed debt, specifically, distressed real estate or (REO) and mortgage loans (NPL) may be a good investment to...

Welcome to Capital Markets Today.  I will be producing a series of podcasts that help explain to potential investors why distressed debt, specifically, distressed real estate or (REO) and mortgage loans (NPL) may be a good investment to include in your investment portfolio.  There are many issues brewing that could trigger increased REO and NPL opportunities besides the obvious Covid related problems being discussed in the news daily.  Today I will focus on one issue that could cause problems...

The latest long-term mortgage default projections from many analyst is now hovering around 7%.   This number will be bifurcated by loan product with FHA loans seeing the bulk of the defaults.  However, this number is pure projection and the long term number will depend on Expiration of the supplemental unemployment benefits due to occur at the end of July A further increase in the unemployment rates and continuing jobless claims. And Potential decline in home values Joining the podcast...

In April, the unemployment rate increased from 4.4% to 14.7%, the largest one month increase in history.  It is likely that the unemployment rate hits 20% in May and some forecast a 25% unemployment matching that of the Great Depression rate. However, the more concerning percentage is the estimate by many economists that 40% of the jobs lost will be permanent.  No matter how the numbers turn out, there will be a significant impact to mortgage defaults, especially on modified and FHA mortgage...

The COVID-19 crisis, like the subprime mortgage crisis a decade ago, has sparked major public interventions to stabilize the financial markets. But the Fed isn’t stepping in to bail out the real estate sector — and the big losers are set to be ordinary households. This is the intro to an article title “Another Real Estate Crash Is Coming” written by Shehryar Qazi, a doctoral student and researcher in political economy at the University of London We are fortunate to have Shehryar on the...

For distressed debt buyers, it could be the calm before the storm.  Some deals are floating about with investors pricing them as a sort of reconnaissance exercise to determine the bid/ask levels. The first wave to hit was leveraged lenders, but most expect a sharp increase in deal flow by the 3rd or 4th quarter once participants on both the buy and sell side have more transparency on how the Covid-19 issue will play out. Joining the podcast to discuss the approaching NPL opportunity is...

In just a matter of days, origination of alternative loans, known as “non-QM lending,” came to an abrupt halt.  Non-QM investors worry about risk in an economy shaken by COVID-19 and have stopped buying new loans. Non-QM lenders now have loans sitting in their pipeline with no buyers.  This creates a problem for lenders as most are not set up to own loans and are required to move the loans off their warehouse lines. Joining the podcast to discuss buying and selling in the alternative loan...

More than 10 million people applied for unemployment benefits in the last two weeks of March due to Covid-19 and some analysts predict the unemployment rate could climb to 25%.  Florida was hit hard in the 2008 crash and many in the state fear the Covid-19 shut down could result in more foreclosures and bankruptcies seen in past recessions. Joining the podcast to discuss what to do now to prepare your portfolio for increased defaults in Florida is Harris Howard, managing partner of the...

As we head into the spring home selling season, economist are predicting a dismal performance.  There are estimates that home sales could fall by 35% annually compared with previous years.  Analysts are watching closing to see if the strong monetary policy implemented in conjunction with pent up demand will create a positive rebound over the summer. Joining the podcast to discuss housing is Daren Blomquist, Vice President of Market Economics at Auction.com.  Daren analyzes economic data...

The bond purchasing program initiated by the fed along with the impact of COVID-19 has created extreme volatility in the 10-year treasury which influences long-term mortgage rates.  Just this month, the 10-year ranged from 45 basis points to 1.2%. As a result of the erratic bond movement, there has been a wave of margin calls by broker-dealers who sold hedges to mortgage bankers quickly eroding the bankers working capital. Joining the podcast to discuss the mortgage market is Brent Nyitray,...

Servicers are required to advance principal and interest on securitized mortgage loans to investors even if the borrower stops making payments. Earlier this week, to the dismay of many in the servicing industry, the Federal Housing Finance Agency announced it has no plans to create a federally backed liquidity facility to assist struggling servicers.  In fact, The Agency will simply transfer servicing in the event a servicer lacks enough cash on hand, most likely causing another round of...

Welcome to Capital Markets Today.  This month, we are producing a series of podcasts featuring industry experts to discuss the impact of the covid-19 crisis on mortgage origination and distressed mortgage and real estate related assets. Today, we are going to explore the difference between todays COVID-19 based economic collapse versus the 2008 financial and mortgage induced collapse. Many will argue a collapse is a collapse and as a result, we’ll see job loss, mortgage defaults and home...

Welcome to Capital Markets Today and the MWM Fund Note Investing podcast series.This is the 2nd in a series of 5 podcasts discussing the creation and strategy of the MWM Fund, a req A fund enabling the smaller investor to participate in the non-performing note investment niche. Joining the podcast today is TJ Osterman and Rick Allen, founders of the MWM Fund.  In the last podcast, we discussed the opportunity in the note space as well as the overall strategy of the MWM Fund.  Today, we will...

Freddie Mac just announced it began marketing a non-performing loan sale with about $400 million in Unpaid Principal Balance.   The loans are being sold via five pools, four standard pool offerings and one extended timeline pool designed for smaller investors and non-profits. The definition of smaller investor is relative, for example the smaller expo pool is in excess of $20 million in UPB.   Over the past few months, a portion of our audience made up of the smaller investor have asked how...

The IMN Opportunity Zone Forum is being held in Chicago on September 19th. Listeners of the podcast can use code NSCM20 when registering for a 20% discount It was recently announced that PTM Partners and Estate Investments Group secured a $55 million construction loan to build an 18-story apartment project in an Opportunity Zone.  The development group also secured about $18 million in mezzanine financing in addition to the construction loan. The developers are building a 360-unit...

The IMN Opportunity Zone Forum being held in Chicago on September 19th. Listeners of the podcast can use code NSCM20 when registering for a 20% discount Silverback Development recently announced it has raised  $50 million in capital to seed a new Opportunity Zone Fund.  The capital will be used to accelerate its expansion to markets including Louisiana and North Carolina.  Silverback currently has four OZ sites which include Astoria, Long Island City, South Bronx and Stamford, Connecticut. ...

The IMN Opportunity Zone Forum forum is being held in Chicago on September 19th.  Listeners of the podcast can use code NSCM20 when registering for a 20% discount Normandy Real Estate Partners is the latest major real estate player to launch an opportunity zone fund.  The New Jersey-based fund announced its first development deal acquiring a property in Prince Georges County, Maryland.  Normandy bought the property for 6.3 million and plans to demolish the existing building and develop at...

The IMN Opportunity Zone Forum is being held in Chicago on 9/19/19, listeners of the podcast can use code NSCM20 when registering for a 20% discount To stimulate greater multifamily residential and commercial development in Opportunity Zones, Ben Carson recently announced that FHA will now insure mortgages on mixed-use development under the agency’s Section 220 Program in thousands of lower income communities across the country.  The 220 program insures lenders against loss on mortgage...

Welcome to Capital Markets Today and the IMN NPL Notes & Default Servicing Forum podcast series.The forum is being held Dana Point on June 3rd & 4th.Listeners of the podcast can use code NSCM30 when registering for a 30% discount A new foreclosure bill in New Jersey was just signed into law by Governor Phil Murphy.  The objective of the new Bill is to resolve the surge of new foreclosures and streamline pending cases.  In 2017 New Jersey led the country with nearly 70k foreclosures. ...

Welcome to Capital Markets Today and the IMN NPL Notes & Default Servicing Forum podcast series.The forum is being held Dana Point on June 3rd & 4th.Listeners of the podcast can use code NSCM30 when registering for a 30% discount Fannie Mae recently announced their latest sale of non-performing loans.   Fannie’s NPL sale includes six larger pools of approximately 4,660 loans totaling $822 million in unpaid principal balance (UPB) and the Community Impact Pool of approximately 80...

The outlook for the U.S. economy is dimming with several institutions lowering their growth forecast after April economic reports were published.  JPMorgan Chase cut its forecast for second-quarter economic growth to 1% from 2.25% Oxford Economics lowered its estimate to 1.3% from 1.6% and Barclays forecast went down to 2% from 2.2% April reports showed retail sales unexpectedly declined, factory output was below forecasts, business equipment orders declined, sales of previously owned homes...

The DDC Financials' Distressed European Investment Summit is being held in Stockholm Sweden on March 20th and 21st.  Listeners of the podcast can use code NSCM30 when registering for a 30% discount Late last year, Angelo Gordon, a $28 billion dollar alternative investment firm focused on credit and real estate investing, announced that it has successfully closed its second European realty fund.  The Fund will seek to identify complex and off-market investment opportunities with a focus on...

The IMN NPL Mortgage Notes Forum is being held on February 7th and 8th in Fort Lauderdale.  Listeners of the podcast can use code SP20 when registering for a 20% discount According to the annual Altisource 2018 default survey published last week, servicers are expecting increased delinquencies in their FHA loan portfolios in 2019. Post-crash, FHA, which some consider as government backed non-prime lending, is at least 50% of new originations.  In addition, Experian recently put out a report...