Despite a remarkably strong labour market, predictions of an imminent downturn are everywhere. The disagreement now is not over whether the Federal Reserve should fight inflation, but how painful the consequences of doing so will be. In trying to fix one problem, will the Federal Reserve create another? How much should Americans blame President Biden for the increasingly gloomy outlook? And what can the administration do to protect both the economy and its own electoral future? We ask Dr Cecilia Rouse, chair of the president’s Council of Economic Advisors, whether America is heading for recession and why the post-pandemic economic paradigm is different. We go back to the 1970s to find out why inflation is so politically toxic for the Democrats. And our US economics editor Simon Rabinovitch looks beyond the midterms to see whether President Biden has a way out. John Prideaux hosts with Charlotte Howard and Idrees Kahloon You can now find every episode of Checks and Balance in one place and sign up to our weekly newsletter. For full access to print, digital and audio editions, as well as exclusive live events, subscribe to The Economist at economist.com/uspod.  See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.