This market is not just hard, it's really hard. Everyone is making mistakes, anyone that says they are not are either lying or deluded. No one can trade this type of market perfectly. Having said this, it's a great market for macro, and with appropriate risk management it's a market that can be lucrative, with relatively low volatility This is a follow up to '#14 It's Hard!' episode, and covers all the major tradable asset classes (Equities, Bonds, Precious Metals, Bitcoin,...

In the third episode of the 'At the Coal Face' series, Stirling Cox joins me to discuss how COVID has impacted SMBs in the US. Stirling is the owner of a Call Center in Atlanta, and was previously the President of AlphaSights US. We discuss how the various Government programs have affected his business, and the ramifications for the US economy. We also touch on topics like UBI, and entrepreneurship. Stirling is a fantastic business operator, and a gentleman - I have known him for over...

Anth (@anthemos) is a long-time friend, and great entrepreneur, he is the Founder/CEO of Zumper and has grown it over the last 8 years into the largest private rental marketplace in the US & Canada with 80m+ users, with $150m of Venture funding raised too We discuss real estate and the impact of COVID (with lots of interesting data), politics & stimulus, entrepreneurship (especially learnings/mistakes), and future impacts of COVID to the global economy as a whole (who are the winners...

Franchises contribute about $1 Trillion to the US economy each year, we dive into the state of the Franchise Financing industry with @FedUpBizOwner, an anonymous twitter account who has 15+ years experience dealing with the credit side of franchises We cover an overview of the industry, the various ways different sized franchisees get credit in a pre-COVID world, and then what is happening right now, with real life 'coal face' anecdotes from just yesterday We also initially touch on the...

Andreas is the Global Chief FX & Rates Strategist at Nordea, he joins me this week for a wide ranging discussion covering GDP data (in real time!), 'V-shape' or not, and a whistle stop tour around all the major asset classes We cover everything from the all important USD, the recent major moves in gold & silver, agricultural commodities, equities globally, US duration bonds, and bitcoin Andreas is extremely active on twitter, and is well worth a follow @AndreasSteno; as always...

Dr Barton Wang is an academic, a trader, and a polymath. We cover his approach to trading options, the Treasury General Account (TGA), Central Banks & Blockchain, progress with COVID19 vaccines, and lastly AI, Big Data and Quantum Computing I learned a lot during this episode, especially about the nuances to the TGA mechanics, and also what I thought were sound reasons to believe a Vaccine may come sooner than many think (it just won't be available to everyone at first) To follow...

Today we welcome Tim Boyd, ex-Bridgewater analyst, and Founder of Apollo Trading Club; a 20 year veteran of macro investing, and must-follow voice on twitter. The conversation is very varied and unscripted, initially covering the market moving / political events of today (Tuesday 21st July) in detail Other topics include, why is the S&P a matter of National Security? Are there any limits to the Fed? Inflation vs deflation. Is Uranium a sleeper? Which assets are poised to benefit most...

We welcome back Steve Van Metre to discuss the latest economic trends, especially inflation vs deflation, the 'fish hook' recovery, stocks vs bonds, and how to think about hedging in a portfolio As always, this is unscripted and a free flowing conversation, when we disagree we want to dive into why, and not brush it under the carpet Steve is well known for his almost daily YouTube videos focusing on the macro economics and the monetary system, which are data rich and really dive into...

Ryan Paisey (@PriapusIQ) joins me to discuss many aspects of trading including a tour of all the major asset classes (mentioning several potential long/short ideas), his tips for newer traders, and his new service The Morning Ramble (including his Model Portfolio) We cover bonds, equities, precious metals, commodities, bitcoin and volatility, and not just the US; insights about Europe and China too Ryan has traded for 20 years, has a lot of practical experience, and is very much NOT a...

The 2020s have got off to an explosive / crazy / insane start. Will hard assets be the asset class of the 2020s? We dive into a framework for hard assets & liquidity, and go through the potential dynamics of all the major asset classes over the next 10 years Surprisingly, by 2030 we get to what could be a new beginning, an exciting, super innovative world, based upon an entirely new system. Humans are resourceful and smart, the human race will eventually get out of the mess it's in...

Remi Tetot, co-founder of Real Vision, and data guru at Global Macro Investor (GMI) for the last 8 years, joins me for a wide ranging discussion about data, analysis, insights, and how to take these to higher probability trades. Remi does not give many interviews, so this is a rare opportunity to hear about his thoughts in much more detail than 280 characters We discuss how Remi tracks 2000 charts, how he managed to get on top of the rapidly changing COVID data back in February, and what...

Tracy Shuchart (@chigrl) joins me for a candid discussion with no agenda; the conversation meanders between politics, financial markets, investing style, cooking, twitter, and macro You may or may not agree with the various aspects of the discussion, one thing we both passionately believe in is that by having frank discussions (and disagreeing sometimes too) in a longer form format, it's possible to get more into the nuances than with 280 characters! Tracy is a well known Energy...

Steve Van Metre joins me for a freeform discussion with no agenda; we cover a variety of subjects ranging from GDP trends, stimulus & politics, the Fed & the Federal Reserve Act, Digital 'fiat' Currencies and much more We are deliberately candid in this episode, you may agree or disagree with the points we make (and we sometimes disagree with each other too), however we both believe that having debate, and frank discussion, is important to further one's knowledge Steve is well...

Fill in the 'xxxx'... Millennials are already Prime Ministers and in Cabinets across the world (especially Europe), and Millennials have 10x less wealth than Boomers had at the equivalent age (c. 30) - this is a major problem, there will be ramifications... This episode discusses some frameworks & ideas for thinking about ensuring we have a concept of time in our investment process, as if you don't have a process you are likely going to struggle in the long run Note: When saying...

This market is hard, actually it's really really hard. Anyone who says otherwise is either deluded or lying. But it is what it is, and we all have to try to navigate it. We dive into psychology, talk about the 'silent majority' on social media (with fresh data!), and a few different theses on some core asset classes The podcast is starting to take off, with a few hundred listens to recent episodes, whilst this is still tiny, it does give me motivation that listeners are getting some value...

So it's easy right? The Fed goes BRRRRRRRRRR and stocks go up? Not so fast curious macro investor! Lets dive into what really happens, whilst there is an indirect link between the Fed and stocks going up, the real primary driver is the Treasury and it's spending/stimulus as this is what pushes up deposits, driving money supply up We dive into data on FRED to illustrate this (anyone can access this data), and outside the process from the Treasury auctions, to Robinhoodies buying $HTZ

Shorter episode today, reactions from the Fed Presser, some thoughts on Corona, and a quick dive into the volatility regimes of markets

Did the NFP number wind you up? It shouldn't have, take a step back and think of the big picture. The #1 question I get asked is what does a potential portfolio look like in these times of uncertainty (volatility) and doubt. So I take this head on in this episode. Everyone has a different situation, so this is just a framework, but I do go into what allocations could be in actual numbers, and what potential returns could be in different inflation/deflation situations. Always DYOR, and tailor...

Inflation or deflation? It's the defining question in macro right now. If you can get this right, your core portfolio will do well. In the medium-long term there are lots of differing views (super short term = deflationary / deflation), i.e. what will happen in 2021/22 and beyond. This is what matters for bonds, commodities, gold, equities - everything will be affected. In this episode we dive into the core equations of monetary policy; velocity of money, money multiplier etc - and talk about...

Debt, deflation, defaults, demographics, disruption, dollar, democracy, depression, decoupling, deleveraging, dissolution etc... Lots of D words Discussed by Dr D. What does it all mean?

What is Relativity? Why is it important? Can it be used in conjunction with quantum mechanics?

What is Quantum Mechanics? How was it discovered, who was involved, what experiments were involved? How can we talk about QM in non-math(s) speak? Can we unify the four fundamental forces of the universe? Are waves or particles more important (spoiler: waves...) - quick intro to Quantum Field Theory (QFT)

We all make mistakes, how do we learn from them, pattern recognise and become sharper

Discussion about the current gold market dynamics, bull and bear case, free thoughts when hiking in the hills!

I received some feedback to try an 'off the cuff' episode about something totally new and unique, so I did this whilst hiking as an idea came into my head about how 'Pro' Civilization gamers share a lot of traits with Professional Investors.  This may sound crazy, however the parallels are striking!