In this week’s Fatal Conceits Podcast we are joined by Bonner Private Research’s own macro man, Dan Denning... When we last touched base with Dan, back in late March, markets were enjoying (what hindsight now reveals was) something of a bear market bounce off their mid-month lows. But Dan was not convinced. He warned that “The Generals” (mega-cap S&P 500 stocks) were poised to beat a disorderly retreat… dragging the broader markets lower as investors “re-evaluated and repriced the future.” Fast-forward to this week and we see the Dow down 9%… the S&P off 13%… and the Nasdaq lower by almost 20%… just since that powwow. No surprise then that we were keen to get Dan’s insights on the state of play today… from Mr. Powell’s reappointment at the Fed to the greenback’s relative strength against foreign fiat currencies over the past month… to his outlook on gold and the Bonner Private Research asset allocation strategy in general. We’ve got all that and more to get to today, in Episode #65 of your Fatal Conceits Podcast. Please enjoy… Cheers, Joel Bowman P.S. If you’re not already receiving all of Dan’s premium research - including his weekly Friday market notes, plus research reports like the BPR Asset Allocation Strategy and the upcoming Dollar Report - make sure you get access to it all here. Good for what ails ya. Thank you for listening to this episode of the Fatal Conceits Podcast - A show about money, markets mobs and manias. This one is public, so please feel free to share it, with market leaders and followers alike… TRANSCRIPT: Joel Bowman: Welcome to the Fatal Conceits Podcast, dear listeners, a show about money markets, mobs, and manias... not necessarily in that order. My name is Joel Bowman. I'm coming to you from the literal and geographical end of the world down here in Argentina. If this is your first time listening, please head over to our Substack page. That's at bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com where you can check out 100s of articles on everything from high finance to lowly politics, and also plenty of research reports and market notes many of which are penned by my guest today, Mr. Dan Denning. Dan, welcome from the high plains of Laramie. How are you doing? Dan Denning: Good. Thank you. It's nice to see you again. Joel Bowman: Well, I don't know if you know this, Dan, but just in preparation for our discussion today, the last time that you and I recorded a conversation for this show was at the very end of March, which now in retrospect looks a bit like a bear market trap for those of us who are following the money off the March lows. And I just went back and did the math since our last recorded discussion. The Dow is down 9%. The S&P is down 13%. The Nasdaq, almost 20%. And during that conversation, you were warning that "the generals" may be beating a disorderly retreat. That turns out to have been a very prescient call. What did you know then that others were not predicting... And where do we lay now? Dan Denning: Yeah. I remember that conversation. And I guess to be fair-minded, I probably didn't say anything different then than I haven't been saying for the last three to five years. So, I don't want to be one of those guys that say, See, I told you so, and people say, Yeah, but it's the whole stop clock thing. But I would say that the overall thesis for Bill and I, and Tom Dyson had bought in Bonner Private Research and it has been now for well for a while, is that if you looked at all the traditional metrics for valuation in the stock market, not at the company level, but at the market level, they all were historically massively overvalued. So, the price of sales ratio on the S&P500 was over three. The market cap to GDP ratio for US stocks was over, it may have been over 200 at one point on the Nasdaq, but it was certainly well over the historic average of 80 and was closer to 150. And on an earning basis, too, if you looked at Robert Schiller's s