Last week, Brent crude flat price rallied, pushing up over $80/bbl and staying there since then. The rejected ceasefire deal on Feb 06 supported this bullish momentum. We've seen strength across refinery margins - particularly in Europe - with a notable rally in product prices, including strong bidding in the physical market. Greg, Martha, and James discuss ongoing geopolitical conflict, refinery outages, and potential oversaturation due to early positioning in Q3 and the need to balance...

Brent futures softened from over $80 last week, to stabalise around $78/bbl on Feb 6. Geopolitically, tensions persist in the Middle East with ongoing conflicts and ceasefire talks proving elusive. Despite positive economic indicators, market enthusiasm appears lacking, reflected in WTI spreads in contango and a rangebound regime across the crude complex. As for the refinery margin change; the weakness in crude oil is impacting refined products. The Dated Brent market, with a lack of interest...

Brent futures spent most of the week with prices typically above $80 per barrel, recording a second week of gains. Geopolitical risk premiums strengthened, and positive economic news from the US, along with promising developments in China, contributed to the positive sentiment. As for refinery margins, it's been a positive week, with products driving the rally and support seen from every product down the barrel. Greg reflects on the paradox of the Dated Brent market, pivotal in global crude...

Brent futures saw sub $77/bbl levels on 17 Jan after poor economic data from China saw the GDP rise by 5.2% in Q4 compared to the forecast of 5.3%. CFTC data for the week to Jan 16, (in Brent futures) saw a continuation of a more bullish sentiment, with bullish speculators adding almost 15mbbls (+5%) of length, whilst their bearish counterparts decreased their short positioning by 1.5mbbls (-2%). In WTI, a more bearish stance was seen. Bulls removed over 5mbbls (-2.5%) of long positions,...

Onyx Director Jonah Van Bourg discusses his extremely eventful career thus far with CEO Greg Newman. From how his experience working at Goldman Sachs and Vitol, to working on the floor on Lehman Brother's floor, in the midst of the biggest bankruptcy in American history.   Jonah discusses his experience in crypto trading and sheds light on how crypto and oil are incredibly similar commodities in a lot of ways, drawing parallels to their shaky beginnings, where people had discovered it, but...

Supply and demand modelling is no longer enough to accurately determine market value.  The recent market has been a perfect illustration of this in key differentials in the oil market, which have been driven by stop outs, pushing market prices against the fundamental consensus. Example discussed are the North Sea differential rally in prompt DFLs, Brent Dubai's move against market consensus and propane volatility in US contracts. Onyx Capital Group CEO joins Research Associates Martha Dowding...

World of Oil Derivatives is back for 2024! With a new year, traders, market analysts and market observers are looking for a consensus. Research houses are making their claims, and banks their forecasts, and it will still be 1-2 months before we hear from trade houses and majors about their outlook for the year. So could the global economy surprise us to the upside this year? Could we get lower interest rates that brings on a risk on move in macro markets?  Or, as always, could there be a...

In another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, Onyx Capital Group CEO is joined by Onyx Partner and Head of Desk for NGL, Luke Mcdermott.  Luke discusses his years of experience in the industry and the minutia of NGL’s. Most importantly Luke discusses the current situation of the Panama Canal and what that means for Traders and the economy.

The resolution of the OPEC drama has brought contentment to market players as they embrace a stable oil price in the low 70s. Despite this relief, demand concerns persist as Brent spreads remain in contango until April/May'24, indicating a prevailing weak physical sentiment in the market. Complicating matters, a geopolitical risk premium hangs over the Red Sea, prompting commercial shipping companies to avoid the area. Instead, vessels are rerouted through the safer but longer passage around...

In the latest developments in the global oil market, bearish sentiment has taken hold as OPEC cuts clash with the surge in non-OPEC production (notably from the United States and Guyana). The market is treading cautiously, adopting a risk-off stance as it awaits crucial macroeconomic headlines. Investors are on edge in anticipation of the CPI report on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Wednesday. Brent crude has found stability, settling around the mid-70s, a level deemed...

Industry Legend and Director of Levmet, Kurt Chapman, joins Onyx CEO Greg Newman to discuss the evolution of the Dated Brent market. Kurt discusses his plethora of experience in the physical and financial markets. He graduated from Harvard University with a BA in Economics and went on to serve as an Infantry Officer in the US Marine Corps. He explains how his time in the Marines prepared him for life as a Commodity Trader. His wide-spanning trading career started on Wall Street in the '80s,...

Onyx Research Associate Martha Downing joins CEO Greg Newman with a market update and the pair discuss how the markets were affected pre and post OPEC meeting. Martha informs us how the refinery margin changed. Crude and the products are still weak and gasoil is weighing down the margins in both regions. The end of last month saw players holding their MOPJ, which is Asian naphtha into pricing, which is going to continue to bolster the spread. Martha recommends MOC in gasoline as her one to...

In this episode of our Onyx Leadership podcast series, Chief Technology Officer Ishaan Hemnani joins Onyx CEO Greg Newman to discuss the vital role of technology in the oil derivatives industry. Ishaan is an extremely unique and rare person within the industry, having experience as Fuel Trader, before pivoting into technology and creating Bunker X, which has become the playbook for many in the oil industry.  Ishaan and Greg discuss how they came to work together and why Ishaan chose to move...

A volatile market influenced by OPEC headlines is still leaving oil markets sitting anxiously in “wait and see” mode. With the anticipation surrounding the upcoming OPEC meeting, Brent crude has been oscillating around $80. The market is expecting OPEC to deepen existing cuts, with fundamentals largely skewed to the downside. Refinery margins have been improving week on week due to crude weakness although we're seeing weakness down the barrel in the products. There was an improvement of over...

Oil market participants are anxiously in “wait and see” mode ahead of the OPEC meeting and Greg shares his presentation summarizing market sentiment over recent months. Greg discusses the current state of oil markets, highlighting a recent sell-off in Brent crude below $90 per barrel at the beginning of Q4. The impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict and a subsequent overcorrection, led to prices briefly dropping below $80. RINs have been weak with news of a strong soybean harvest supporting...

In this special episode of our Onyx Leadership podcast series, hosted by Onyx Capital Group's CEO Greg Newman, we sit down with Chief Revenue Officer Miles Hempsall to discuss Miles' journey within the world of oil derivatives.   Miles shares his ethos on building commercial success, the challenges and opportunities of creating value in research and data businesses, and his vision for the future of Onyx in this open and candid discussion.   To watch the Video Podcast, click here...

Onyx Research Analyst Martha Dowding joins Onyx Capital Group CEO Greg Newman for a market update, a discussion on the growth of oil demand growth (noting an increase to 4 million barrels per day despite challenges), and Martha recommends her Trade Idea of the week is to long the Q1 regrade due to shifting weather forecasts in Asia.    Greg expresses scepticism about forecasting demand and emphasizes the significance of the supply side, particularly the commitment to U.S. shale oil...

The team discusses the current Brent flat price (around $83/bbl), with prices down due to concerns about China's economic situation and traders now discounting geopolitical risk. Greg, Vincent, and Martha mention a decline in managed money positions in recent weeks, contributing to an overall bearish outlook in the oil market. Vincent predicts the bullish factor in the market for Q4. Greg expresses a lack of confidence in the direction of the crude oil market due to various factors, including...

Onyx Researchers Martha and Vincent join CEO Greg to discuss the main stories of the week, including the impact of the Israil / Gaza conflict on the market - Crude oil remains below $90/bbl and has fallen to $85/bbl week-on-week as Israel’s ground operations in Gaza remained limited, easing concerns of escalation into the wider region.  The impact of weather on gasoil is discussed: the weather hasn’t been cold enough to inspire bullish attitudes and the weather is pretty mild for this time of...

As another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, today we’ll hear from some of the women on the Onyx Team in Leadership roles.   This episode is hosted by Alexandra Carlon, Head of Media & Marketing. She interviews Manny Sandhu, Head of Crude, Maria Boixados, Head of Direct Trading and Polly Cooper, Senior Associate Commercial Manager about the realities of Leadership in a predominately male industry.   They have an open discussion about everything from their leadership styles to the...

Onyx Researchers Martha and Vincent join CEO Greg to discuss the main stories of the week, including the large oil and gas merges and acquisitions. ExxonMobil acquired Pioneer and this is pretty much doubling down in shale oil, which is only strengthening the U.S. economy and energy security. Greg discusses the significant impact of the derivative market on the oil and gas industry, highlighting the historical shift from independent-driven production with hedging to a more consolidated and...

The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, and the potential for further escalations has led the crude oil market to experience a significant price increase in Brent and WTI, posting a near 6% gain on Friday (the highest daily percentage gain since April).  Greg, Vincent and Martha ask (and answer) the question: Is $100 Oil back on the menu?  Make sure to view this episode on YouTube if you’d like to follow along with the on screen graphics.     

CEO and Onyx Founder Greg Neman joins Research Associate Vincent Wu to discuss the Geopolitical Risk Premium and how the attacks on Israel have caused a bullish reaction. But the question is, what will happen to prices based on Iran’s role in the tensions in the Middle East? Vincent gives an update for what happened in the market last week. There was more volatility, refinery margins coming off and bearish EIA stats showing weaker gasoline demand and inventory build, which triggered a very...

With the interest rate worries continuing, the strong US dollar and products weak it begs the question as to “how are we not rallying?” The Research team discusses the complete weakness in RBBR right now. Although it’s very weak in the futures, the end user isn't seeing the good effects of this. Greg dives into a deep discussion into over-thinking and risk-reward strategy. While Audrey and Vincent bring some great trade ideas to the table. If you would like to watch on Youtube, you can follow...

Will an oil price rally mean higher airfares? As people are looking to purchase flights home for Christmas, we of course notice that prices are drastically higher. Although this is a classic case of dynamic pricing, we also need to consider the role Brent plays in all of this, as there’s a clear sensitivity around $100 per barrel and $120 on the products.  Join the Onyx team for a market update, covering high flat prices, demand destruction and how this will affect airlines. Greg, Audrey,...