Brent crude is consolidating around $82-83/bbl. The big story over the weekend was Iraq’s oil minister, Hayyan Abdul, saying on Saturday that Iraq would not agree to renew cuts, but flipped on Sunday, saying that Iraq will continue to cooperate with other member states about this cut. Looking to the refinery margins, spreads have collapsed with stop outs driving the movement. There was a significant drop in RBBR, down to just $21.50/bbl in Jul. There has been a build in EIA gasolin...

Welcome back to Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis. On today's show James looks back on last week's disappointing data, this weeks upcoming CPI data, and key levels in markets, particularly looking at equities, fixed income and also gold. Precious metals are rallying again. The PBOC bought gold for 18th straight month in April, adding 60k Troy ounces to its reserves. In fact, Global central banks have bought 2,100 tonnes of gold in the last 2 years.&...

If you would like to access our free comprehensive monthly oil report as mentioned in the podcast, click here: https://www.onyxhub.co/dashboards/oil-market-report-may/In last week's podcast, we had started to see pressure in the crude futures contracts, and we've slid to a new low of this cycle today at $82.30/bbl.Refinery margins were the major reason for bullish Brent over the past few months, however now it’s the major reason market sentiment has flipped. Margins have strengthened sl...

Welcome back to the third episode of Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis.On today's show James discusses softening economic data out of the US, where there are murmurs of stagflation, the less hawkish Fed Chairman Powell and the weaker than expected employment data.He also examines the big movers for this week. USDJPY with 2 rounds of intervention and cocoa has also fallen 41.5% in just 3 days. There's no key economic data in the week ahead so the market will trend o...

Brent futures opened at $87.50 per barrel, seeing a $1 decrease due to promising ceasefire negotiations, with a Hamas delegate heading to Cairo on Monday. The market is rather sanguine on geopolitical risk, and has been de-risking over the past week, with open interest in ETFs seeing a substantial decline. Looking to the refinery margin changes, the prompt European margin increased slightly over the week as stronger products outweighed stronger crude. There was notable strength observed ...

Welcome back to the second episode of Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis.On today's show James discusses recent mixed economic data out of the US, OIS pricing and the Yen volatility. He also dives into what's happening with gold, silver, tech and equity markets. Looking at recent employment data, James explains that although employment data is strong, the jobs that are being created are part time jobs and full time jobs are being lost. In fact, 1.34 million ful...

Looking at the past week, the oil market was too long and had to de-risk.Brent Futures saw a week of stagnation and mean reversion, $90/bbl oil was very short lived and sell-off was driven by speculative positioning cycles as market participants took off length amid a waning geopolitical premium. Looking to the refinery margin change, Dated Brent was weaker than last week and is now seeing a little bit of support, whilst gasoil continued to weaken. Martha notes the difference between the stra...

Onyx Capital Group is proud to launch a brand new show; Macro Monday's with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis. On today's show James discusses recent strong economic data out of the US, OIS pricing and the US dollar strength. He also dives into what's happening with gold, silver and equity markets. It seems like tech stocks are crashing at the moment, with Nvidia -21.8 from ATH and Tesla down 49.4% from its all-time high. James walks us through recent US unemployment d...

Off the back of another tense week with the recent attacks by Iran on Israel, Greg, Jorge, James and Martha discuss the impact (or, lack thereof) the event had on oil prices. As a bonus for this episode, Jorge and Martha will provide a trade idea each!  There was a muted response for Brent futures, with prices oscillating around $90/bbl, opening on Monday at $90/bbl and closing at $90.50/bbl. Looking at the CFTC report, the market is quite long - especially by managed by money players. The...

Prices were around $89/bbl last week, but since then there's been a noticeable uptick - not quite reaching $92/bbl and oscillating around $90/bbl since. Refinery margins have weakened, with refined products struggling - with the exception of gasoline. Gasoil is extremely weak, with poor distillate performance in all regions.  EBOB has seen greater strength with the market keen to buy into last week's weakness. Looking to our macro news segment, James unpacks the latest headlines shaking up...

Brent Futures have made a notable climb since last week, hitting $89/bbl on Tuesday morning. It's crucial to analyse the impact of recent developments on oil demand. Notably, both China and the USA have seen expansions in manufacturing activity, marking significant milestones. What has been the impact of headlines regarding tighter supply and the possible contagion of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East? Examining the refinery margin, we observed a supportive trend in the Dated market....

Brent futures surged to $87.70 last week, only to encounter resistance and profit-taking flows, settling this week at a sturdy $85-86/bbl range. Macroeconomic factors and persistent supply concerns are pivotal in sustaining these levels. Refinery margins face widespread pressure across regions, while the gasoil market sentiment remains subdued amidst spring demand and increased freight, notably from the Middle East to Europe and Asia. Yet, amidst these challenges, there's a glimmer of hope...

In another episode of our Onyx Leadership series, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Co-Head of Light Ends, Jasper Bird. Jasper and Greg shed light on the realities of being a Trader, how egos can play a part in trading, and uncover the inner workings of a trader's mentality. They delve into the highs and lows of trading and the challenges of maintaining social and entertainment balance as you age in the industry. With over 6 years of experience at Onyx Capital Group, Jasper opens up about...

With Group CEO Greg Newman abroad, Light Ends Direct Trader James Todd steps up to host World of Oil Derivatives for another market update episode.  Since last week, Brent Futures price rallied from sub $83/bbl this week to over $87.50/bbl yesterday. The breakout from its previous range came on the back of a flurry of bullish headlines - including drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, draws in both crude and gasoline inventories in the US, and positive Chinese economic data.  Looking...

Crude flat price has been remarkably neutral in the past week, sitting around $82/bbl (slightly down from $83/bbl). However, the market has found a genuine equilibrium - a price level where everyone seems happy. Looking to the refinery margin, Naphtha showed significant strength with the MOPJ crack for April exceeding -$5/bbl, while Mar/Apr in the NWE region remained robust at $20/mt. Gasnaphs saw a rise from $185 to $195/mt for April, which drew bids at the relatively cheaper levels. EBOB...

Oil markets are all of a sudden kicking into gear, and it seems we are now on that highway to the danger zone. With every market indicator of the underlying physical market strong, and forward derivative prices indicating that this will last for some time, the only thing left to truly perform is the outright price.  Will this carry through? And will the danger zone of inflation, demand destruction and overextension grip oil markets once again? It’s been a bullish week in the crude market,...

It's been another rangebound, albeit less bullish week in Brent futures. Crude prices came off from around $84/bbl. down to the low 80s, where it found some support on Monday. As for the refinery margin change, Dated Brent is significantly weaker. There were some significant moves in gasoline and gasoil. The latter saw a real weakness in prices amid poor European demand. Martha also looked into American refinery margins, which is also weak across the whole gasoil complex and heating oil...

In a special episode of our Onyx Leadership podcast series, Group CEO Greg Newman sits down with Jorge Montepeque, the new Managing Director - Benchmarking. Jorge, an industry legend, pioneered oil pricing by introducing benchmarks, revolutionising communication across different sites worldwide. When Greg first started trading, most traders relied on Yahoo Messenger for precise time stamps. Then came Jorge, reinventing communication, making it faster and introducing a platform enabling...

It's been a bullish week for crude flat price this week and has been supported above $80 levels, reaching a peak of $85.50, which is seemingly finding resistance at current levels. However, overall market sentiment has been quite bullish from both hedge funds and speculators alike.  As for refinery margins; there's been a week-on-week decline of nearly $3/bbl in the prompt. Currently on a downtrend but where will it find support?   Looking at oil from a macro perspective, China has cut the...

Last week, Brent crude flat price rallied, pushing up over $80/bbl and staying there since then. The rejected ceasefire deal on Feb 06 supported this bullish momentum. We've seen strength across refinery margins - particularly in Europe - with a notable rally in product prices, including strong bidding in the physical market. Greg, Martha, and James discuss ongoing geopolitical conflict, refinery outages, and potential oversaturation due to early positioning in Q3 and the need to balance...

Brent futures softened from over $80 last week, to stabalise around $78/bbl on Feb 6. Geopolitically, tensions persist in the Middle East with ongoing conflicts and ceasefire talks proving elusive. Despite positive economic indicators, market enthusiasm appears lacking, reflected in WTI spreads in contango and a rangebound regime across the crude complex. As for the refinery margin change; the weakness in crude oil is impacting refined products. The Dated Brent market, with a lack of interest...

Brent futures spent most of the week with prices typically above $80 per barrel, recording a second week of gains. Geopolitical risk premiums strengthened, and positive economic news from the US, along with promising developments in China, contributed to the positive sentiment. As for refinery margins, it's been a positive week, with products driving the rally and support seen from every product down the barrel. Greg reflects on the paradox of the Dated Brent market, pivotal in global crude...

Brent futures saw sub $77/bbl levels on 17 Jan after poor economic data from China saw the GDP rise by 5.2% in Q4 compared to the forecast of 5.3%. CFTC data for the week to Jan 16, (in Brent futures) saw a continuation of a more bullish sentiment, with bullish speculators adding almost 15mbbls (+5%) of length, whilst their bearish counterparts decreased their short positioning by 1.5mbbls (-2%). In WTI, a more bearish stance was seen. Bulls removed over 5mbbls (-2.5%) of long positions,...

Onyx Director Jonah Van Bourg discusses his extremely eventful career thus far with CEO Greg Newman. From how his experience working at Goldman Sachs and Vitol, to working on the floor on Lehman Brother's floor, in the midst of the biggest bankruptcy in American history.   Jonah discusses his experience in crypto trading and sheds light on how crypto and oil are incredibly similar commodities in a lot of ways, drawing parallels to their shaky beginnings, where people had discovered it, but...