I had a chance conversation with a Ukrainian scientist today, with whom I shared my reasoning as to why the Ukrainian war is being fought and how it can be resolved. My views are unconventional and quite contrary to the prevailing winds, but as she liked them so much, and as they may be helpful to unwind a dangerous and contentious problem, I made a video to walk you through my ideas. www.macroESG.com @gregbeier @macroesg --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

The Australian government initiated a strict two-week lockdown in Sydney this week and its news service laid bare the significant risks of the Delta Variant, implying a much higher risk than is being made clear by governments in Western Europe or the US. We believe the Australian report to be solid as they have a very open, cohesive society. The exceptionally transmissible Delta Variant is likely to infect everyone until communities hit a population immunity threshold of vaccinated or...

We are keen to be short Nasdaq futures mainly because its dominant Big Tech names have been the biggest beneficiaries of price appreciation during the Trump Administration and during the Pandemic. Hence, it’s only logical that when the Fed’s protective bubble is unwound that we should expect the Big Tech sector to also continue falling when the Trump Bubble collapses as well. We call this the Double Bubble - the first, constructive; the second, destructive. www.macroesg.com @gregbeier...

The decline in US 10 Year yield is a decent confirmation of our bearish US equities view so we are putting on an 84% Nasdaq 100 futures short in the Leveraged Aggressive Model Portfolio. If we are wrong, then Leveraged Aggressive will lose 69 basis points on a 104% gross short position. www.macroesg.com #macroesg #gregbeier @gregbeier #susarb --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

1. COVID Risk Increasing News of Covid success in the United States and UK is masking much bigger problems. News reports estimate that 30,000 people are dying a day in India. Covid is still spreading out across the developing world and Asia (Tokyo and Melbourne on lockdown). 2. Variant Risk Increasing The risk of a super variant that current vaccines are ineffective against emerging from these hotspots is a realistic possibility and will drive down risk taking in markets. As 200...

NB: This is an update to the January 12, 2021 piece “Social Media is a Solid Short” on MacroESG.com. When Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, called out Facebook’s business model as being a social liability for humanity, he put a cap on the stock price. Trade location: Facebook shorts should be made against the high of this day. While the market power is so substantial now, FB is gently listing along. As the US congress and President Biden are tied up with vaccinating America and getting the stimulus...

The time has come to short social media which means Facebook and Twitter as they’ve been the engines of the political controversy. After last week’s attack on Capitol Hill, the Congress has impeached the President for a record second time and will certainly reign in his tool of power - social media. The Russell 2000 Small Cap index is up ~20% since the election of Joe Biden on November 10th, indicating a change in stock market leadership. As Facebook has been riding a wave of good will for a...

America’s Two Greatest Threats… The two greatest threats to America’s national security are: Money influencing policy; and Polarized politics. …Creates Global Risk When money in politics creates a split America – then this is the worst possible path for the United States to follow. And this endangers free and open societies around the world, as the US still is the cornerstone of the global system. If the US falters, every other country is at increased risk. Money influencing policy that...

We are at a historic moment in the history of the United States. As MacroESG has been writing for some time, the Trump administration is fitting the historical analog of the two previous presidencies, Hoover and Carter, that preceded their respective transformational presidencies, FDR and Reagan. This means that Joe Biden is going to be a transformational president, just like FDR and Reagan, which makes the US a long-term buy. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier --- Send in a voice...

Blue Wave is Complete The election of Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in the Georgia Senate run-off elections has completed the Blue Wave. Macro ESG Called It Months Ago Macro ESG called on July 23 in “Macro ESG Daily: We Are At an Inflection Point” that "...the Senate is going to fall to the Democrats too. It’s going to be a political Armageddon." And this is exactly what happened today. Historic Diversity From Georgia Raphael Warnock is the first African American Senator to win an...

In spite of these dire facts and likely projections, because the Fed has pushed so much money into the system, giving Airbnb a sky-high valuation on day one, and because of the vaccine - nothing is going to come down. Equites are looking through the winter at the rebound that will come in the summer from economic activity snapping back. The stock market is quite literally vaccinated from the covid crisis. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier --- Send in a voice message:...

Bad Virus News Wins Georgia I expect that on January 5th the news will be so bad about the pandemic across the country that voters are going to say – No, we are not going to support a party whose President said covid was all going away, was protected in the Senate, and who did not move on covid relief until they had to for their own political interests. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

In summary, the US dollar’s value is determined by S - Social assessment (class and race divisions) which is primarily determined by its G - Government assessment (capability and leadership). Investment and Trading Plan If a surprise event comes up - like a bad ending to the war in Afghanistan - that leads to protests in the US and a decline in the Social assessment, then the US dollar is a solid short. If other bad Government actions/decisions drives Social lower, then the USD is a very...

I am pleased to announce that MacroESG is now the research product of Sustainability Arbitrage LLC, a company that I founded. Macroesg.com will be the research portal for Sustainability Arbitrage. I believe that a significant surprise event likely to happen in 2021 will be the massacre by the Taliban of mid-level and low-level collaborators in Kabul, Afghanistan. I have not seen this idea stated anywhere and as it is so obvious – it leads me to believe that this could be a surprise with...

Bet big on policy changes that ignite paradigm shifts. The best ideas are clear wins based on clear incentives to people in power: The less obvious, the better. Trade the spread between policy change and emotionalism. Betting on policy change is a lot more predictable than emotionalism: Determines risk-reward. Analyze the drivers of global power dynamics. Markets, politics, and technology for a sustainable future: Try to understand the Deep Game. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier ---...

“If Pope Francis reaches out to other leaders of major religions and encourages them to join, the Council for Inclusive Capitalism could build an alliance large enough around the world together with businesses and investors that could push through systemic transformations required to meet the challenges of our time - particularly with the arrival of the Biden Administration. A watershed moment!” @gregbeier #macroesg www.macroesg.com --- Send in a voice message:...

Macro ESG made a high conviction call on June 14th that Joe Biden would win the election with clear, sensible reasons (hence, the bullseye graphic above). Macro ESG then went on to lay out a the investment plan that would work in a Biden administration and beyond. Macro ESG has taken the liberty to simply duplicate the original piece from June 14, 2020 below. Please click this link to the Wayback Machine at Internet Archive to verify. www.macroesg.com #macroesg #gregbeier --- Send in a...

Simple – Jack Ma threatened the systems of patronage that are at the heart of the Chinese banking system. When he threatened to disrupt the entire financial system, he threatened everyone who either controls the banks or depends on the banks for their survival. As China may very well be a house of cards of leverage, Jack Ma’s statements ultimately threatened the very stability of China itself. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier --- Send in a voice message:...

The Presidency At 264 Electoral College votes, if Joe Biden wins Nevada tomorrow (which Hilary Clinton won in 2016), then Mr. Biden is the President. The Senate The Senate is still winnable via Georgia run-offs in January and worsening pandemic. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

Buy dollars on dips with tight stops if Mr. Biden is on track to win the election. Sell dollars on rallies with tight stops if Mr. Trump is on track to win the election. Buy RMB and Chinese government debt - only invest what you can afford to lose as the entire investment could get locked up in unexpected military and diplomatic machinations. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

The states with the highest turnouts tells an interesting story of what is really happening: 108.3% Texas 90.8%. Florida 95%. North Carolina 86.5% Arizona 89.6%. Tennessee As I have written in Biden Wins it with Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, these above states may be about to flip to the Democrats - locking in Joe Biden’s presidency without any doubt - and bringing in Texas and Tennessee to the Democratic side. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier --- Send in a...

For long-only investors, exit the platform tech names that now account for about one-fifth of the S&P500’s market cap. For long-short investors, time to think about which pairs make sense in the new world that is coming with the Trump loss. I’ll put a few ideas together and roll them out when I’ve conviction in them. The next bull market will not be about GOOG, FB, AAPL, AMZN. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message

The Republican Senators commitment to no new fiscal stimulus plan is driving the equity market lower, particularly as the coronavirus wave picks up in Europe and the US. A lower equity market will hurt support for Republican candidates, as many Republicans planned to vote on Election Day. The Biden win will secure a seismic shift in the US towards a sustainable future, bringing much of the world with it. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier --- Send in a voice message:...

The Republican Senators commitment to no new fiscal stimulus plan will drive the equity market lower. A lower equity market will hurt the median voter and will drive down support for Republican candidates. This will push yields lower in US government bonds and create fait accompli for Biden’s win amongst institutional investors who will treat the new administration with great relief. www.macroesg.com #macroesg @gregbeier --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/macro-esg/message