Equity markets tried to rebound on Thursday, but the move was weak and short-lived. The S&P 500 gained about a half percent at the session's high but closed the day with a loss of 0.35%. The move may turn into a deeper rout today following the NFP report. If it aligns with labor data released this week, it will reaffirm the idea that the FOMC will keep interest rates higher for longer. In this scenario, the FOMC is on track to cut rates in 2023, but when and why are yet to be seen. As it...

Equity markets fell for the 2nd trading day in January, marking the start of what could become a significant contraction for the S&P 500. The index shows signs of topping below critical resistance with a growing consensus that January will be a hard month for mega-cap stocks. Names from Apple to Amazon are moving lower as investors shed holdings in overcrowded names to raise capital. The thought is that a rut in the first half will quickly lead to a market bottom and the next great entry...

Equity markets kicked off the 2024 trading year on a sour note, with the S&P 500 falling about 1% at the session low. The move is partly due to a downgrade for Apple that shaved more than 4.25% off of its price. Barclays downgraded the stock to Underweight, citing concerns about hardware sales centered on the iPhone. At the same time, the VIX advanced to show a bottom and a high potential for a market reversal. The combination of weak S&P action and rising VIX suggests a top has been...

It's the first trading week of the New Year, and all eyes will be on the data. The monthly labor market data is due over the week and may lead the market to a new high. Solid employment and wage gains will help clear the path to a soft landing, allowing the FOMC to start cutting rates early in the year. As it is, the market expects the first cuts by March. Earnings season begins next week with reports from the big banks. The banks will likely report robust gains driven by high interest...

Equities advanced on Thursday, extending the week's Santa Claus Rally to about 0.75%. The rally may continue on Friday, but it looks unlikely we'll see a new all-time high on the S&P 500 until next year. As robust as the outlook is for 2024, there are concerns that earnings growth will not be as good as forecasted and that the FOMC may tip the economy into recession. Because it takes 12 months or longer for FOMC policy changes to take full effect, the impact of rate hikes in the first...

Equities advanced on Thursday, extending the week's Santa Claus Rally to about 0.75%. The rally may continue on Friday, but it looks unlikely we'll see a new all-time high on the S&P 500 until next year. As robust as the outlook is for 2024, there are concerns that earnings growth will not be as good as forecasted and that the FOMC may tip the economy into recession. Because it takes 12 months or longer for FOMC policy changes to take full effect, the impact of rate hikes in the first...

Equity markets hovered near break even on Wednesday as investors weighed the possibilities for 2024. Among them is a rally. The outlook for earnings is growth with sequential acceleration throughout the year. Another is a recession. The FOMC policy is restrictive and yet to be fully seen in the data. The odds are high that consumer spending will be weak in the first half and may lead to a recession. This sets the market up to advance, provided the Q1 reporting season is good, or to fall if it...

Equity markets advanced on Tuesday in a day of light holiday week trading. The S&P 500 gained less than a percentage point but set a new two-year high and is on the way to retesting the all-time high soon. Equities will likely move higher this week in a Santa Claus Rally and could set a new all-time high before the New Year. This week's action will be characterized by low volume. Traders and investors are taking a break, waiting to see what happens with the New Year, inflation and the...

Equity markets closed out the week with a gain, making the 8th consecutive weekly increase for the S&P 500. The hope for FOMC rate cuts early in 2024 has driven the move, and this week's PCE price index aligned with the outlook. The index came in at 3.1%, slightly cooler than expected, suggesting the Fed's soft landing is fast approaching. The question is if the economy will hit the ground running or crash through, and either scenario is unfavorable to equities. On the one hand,...

Equity markets tried to rebound from Wednesday's unexpected selloff on Thursday but failed to regain the prior days' losses. The S&P gained 1% for the day but closed well off the highs for the week. The weekly pattern suggests a rising level of fear ahead of the PCE report, due out Friday. The PCE report is expected to confirm slowing inflation but at an insufficient pace to allow the FOMC to cut interest rates soon. The S&P 500 price action shows resistance below the all-time high,...

Equity markets tried to rebound from Wednesday's unexpected selloff on Thursday but failed to regain the prior days' losses. The S&P gained 1% for the day but closed well off the highs for the week. The weekly pattern suggests a rising level of fear ahead of the PCE report, due out Friday. The PCE report is expected to confirm slowing inflation but at an insufficient pace to allow the FOMC to cut interest rates soon. The S&P 500 price action shows resistance below the all-time high,...

Equity markets reversed course on Wednesday, ending a steady string of advances with a 1.5% decline. The move was driven by fear the Fed would not cut rates early in 2024 but would hold off until mid-year or later. The latest CPI report showed inflation cooler than before but holding steady near double the FOMC 2.0% target, a level inconsistent with the idea of interest rate cuts. The November PCE Index is due on Friday and may confirm stabilizing inflation at a higher-than-normal rate, a...

Equity markets extended their rebound another day, lifting the S&P 500 by 0.5% on Tuesday. The move was driven by intensifying hope that the FOMC would cut interest rates soon, a hope that may take the broad market index to a new high. The index is on track to hit and exceed the all-time before the end of the year and could produce a solid Santa Claus Rally next week. The caveat for investors and traders is that the FOMC may not cut rates as quickly as hoped, and data that could alter the...

Equity markets advanced on Monday, setting the S&P 500 up for an 8th consecutive week of gains. The move took the index up about 0.75% at the session's high to set a new multi-year high just shy of the current all-time high. Because the market continues to show resilience and momentum in the face of high interest rates and inflation, it should be expected to continue higher. The question is what the market will do once the all-time high is reached. The primary market-moving event for...

Equity markets advanced following as-expected inflation data and a shift in Fed policy. The Fed indicated rate cuts are likely in 2024, marking the top of the rate hiking cycle. The bad news is that inflation continues to run hot so higher-than-normal interest rates will persist for some time. Even with the 75 basis points of cuts indicated, the market will end the year with rates at 4.5% or higher and double the rate going into the COVID-19 pandemic. The S&P 500 is moving higher, and a...

Equity markets were relatively unchanged on Thursday as traders digested the previous day's news. The shift in FOMC policy is promising but may not be the great news equity markets seek. While the Fed has signaled the peak of interest rates and oncoming cuts, the news is already spurring demand for homes and energy, raising the possibility inflation will accelerate again. The rate on the 10-year treasury fell to the lowest level since July during the session, indicating a significant decline...

Equity markets cheered the FOMC's latest policy shift but should not be sanguine. The Fed's shift is likely short-lived, given the impact of the news on oil and equity markets. The Fed signaled at least three quarter-point interest rate cuts in 2024, clearing the runway for oil and risk-on asset demand. In this environment, inflation could easily accelerate, leading the FOMC to revert to its tighter stance. The S&P 500 gained more than 1.25% at the height of the session as investors...

Equity markets continue to diverge from oil prices, with the S&P 500 moving up to set another new high for the year and oil prices falling to the lowest in months. The moves were driven by an as-expected CPI report, which has equity traders hoping for the first interest rate cuts to come soon and oil markets scared higher-for-longer will impact demand and lead to recession. The takeaway is that enough uncertainty remains for either outcome to be accurate; the question now is which market...

Equity markets advanced on Tuesday, driven by hope for cooling inflation and news from the retail sector. Private equity firms have made a joint offer to take mall-based Macy's private. The deal alleges the stock is deeply undervalued, highlighting value across the industry. Names like Kohl's and Abercrombie & Fitch also advanced on the news gaining mid to high-single digits for the day. Today's market-moving event will be the CPI index. The index is expected to reveal that core...

Equity markets advanced in the preceding week but may not get much higher. The S&P 500 is facing stiff resistance near 4,610, and multiple catalysts due this week could dampen appetite for stocks. Among them are the CPI inflation data, the FOMC policy decision and the November retail sales. Because inflation is expected to run hot again, the FOMC is unlikely to alter its stance on interest rates. The retail sales figure may also be disappointing, given the impact on spending that higher...

Equity markets rebounded on Thursday on hopes that labor data would be a Cinderella story. The data can not be too hot or cold or may raise fears of higher interest rates for longer or looming recession, depending on which way the wind blows. In either case, the outcome for the S&P 500 will be tepid earnings growth in 2024. The S&P 500 advanced 0.75% at the session's peak and remains within a tight range at critical resistance. Next week will be a hot one for traders. The economic...

Equity markets tried to rebound on Wednesday but stumbled after getting what they wanted: soft labor data. While the ADP and JOLTs figures suggest softening in the labor market and may lead the FOMC to cut rates sooner than expected, there is a downside that should be considered. Slowing labor market growth and business spending will impact GDP in 2024 and may lead the economy into recession. The odds of a soft landing have grown in recent months, but investors should not be sanguine, the Fed...

Equity markets continue to trend within a tight range below critical resistance. At the same time, good news continues to emerge but it is more of a sell-the-news event because the news is centered on weakening economic data. A softer than expected JOLT figures suggest a pullback in business spending and hiring that will aid a reduction in inflation. The bad news is that reduced business spending and hiring will also result in soft GDP growth and a weaker consumer. The S&P 500 is...

Equity markets pulled back on Monday to potentially end 5 straight weeks of historic market gains. The S&P 500 rose more than 12% in that time to set a new high for the year but may not be able to move much higher. The market is still trading within a significant range, and there is little reason to think it can continue to rally. While the peak of the Fed's interest rate cycle is near, there is still much uncertainty in the 2024 outlook, and the consensus figures for earnings growth...