Mental Models: Brain and Investment Timing: #16
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Description
A challenge for investors is get the timing correct in their forecasts. How does the timing of current events impact the market and what is your brains role? This is relevant to the Equifax data breach and the 2008 housing crisis. Some experts were calling out the possibility of an economic crisis linked to subprime mortgage practices, but their timing was early. Predicting the speed at which events will unfold is extremely difficult. One particular speculation is the current day 'loss of 20-40% of China's hogs' (a primary source of the worlds protein) due to 'African Swine Fever'. This will likely affect future prices for many protein sources leading to rising prices by the end of 2019. Newly developing world events will cause a burst of noradrenaline (NA; AKA Norepinephrine, NE) within your brain. This chemical keeps your brain in a focused deliberative state, then moves you back into an exploratory state to track the progress of the proposed 'hog decline & world protein deficit'. The release of noradrenaline in your brain is particularly useful with the possible decline in the worlds protein (a never before event), helping investors to track the impact on the market. Or, we at Mental Models Podcast are suffering from 'confirmation bias' and the 'hog decline & world protein deficit' is an incorrect observation. Mental Models Podcast will revisit the prospective 'hog decline & world protein deficit' as time goes on. Links: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-4-called-the-last-financial-crisis-heres-what-they-see-causing-the-next-one-2018-09-13 https://www.mentalmodelspodcast.com #Understanding Behavioral Bia$: A Guide to Improving Financial Decision Making" watch out for...Fall, 2019 Authored by Daniel Krawczyk, Ph.D. & George Baxter, JD, CFA Publisher Business Expert Press ​ Do you want strategies to make better financial decisions? Do you want to be a better investor and earn more money? If you said yes to any or all of the above questions, than this book is for you!
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