Moody’s analysts discuss the increased risk for sovereigns from escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, and then shift to the growing demand for Islamic finance.

Growth will slow in 2024 then stabilize in 2025 in most emerging markets. We have raised our forecasts for Asia, Central-Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa but lowered them for Latin America.

It will take time and effort for sectors like tech and EVs to drive China’s GDP growth, and geopolitics is a risk. But emerging markets supplying relevant goods and services to China stand to benefit.

China’s 2024 policy priorities and influence across Asia, the state of European consumers, Romania’s fiscal deficit, Argentina’s economy and Ecuador’s state of emergency are among the top stories.

Positive developments include strong GDP growth in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, a lifting of sanctions on Niger, and a few countries tapping international bond markets so far this year.

These instruments provide flexibility on debt-service payments and can help bridge differences in restructuring talks. Protracted talks delay critical structural reforms and increase default risk. 

Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Hungary are among the signs that EM financial conditions are improving. The primary market for EM bond issuance is likely to remain strong.

Conditions are more stable for sovereigns, banks and companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region than in North Africa and Levant. An escalation of the Israel-Hamas military conflict is main risk.

Redefault risk in Argentina, general elections in South Africa, financial conditions and debt affordability in Egypt, monetary policy in Turkiye and economic growth in China are top stories this year.

Carbon transition, adaptation to climate change and climate finance – core topics at COP28 – are crucial for EMs because of their exposure to environmental risks and limited capacity to respond.

EM GDP growth will slow, largely because of China’s slowdown. Export-led EMs will suffer from weak global trade activity, but domestic-focused EMs will fare better. Pockets of inflation risk exist.

Continued high US interest rates, strong US dollar and possible rise in commodity prices mean EM central banks are likely to recalibrate the pace, if not the depth, of their interest rate cuts.

This podcast episode examines the effect of interest-rate and oil-price volatility on EM, inflation in Asia and Central-Eastern Europe, monetary policy in LatAm and Egypt’s weakening credit quality.

Moody’s strategists discuss recent central bank decisions, EM financial conditions, US dollar strength and EM currency weakness, Poland’s election and India’s inclusion in an EM government bond index.

Moody’s analysts discuss the country-specific reasons inflation is slowing in emerging markets; why Mexico’s industrial production is increasing; and how Gabon’s coup factored into its outlook change.

In this episode, Moody’s analysts discuss the reasons for the current property-sector stress and the potential effects for developers, banks that finance them, local authorities and the economy.

Moody’s analysts discuss the growing use – and credit effect – of these transactions amid some sovereigns’ debt sustainability concerns and a need to invest in climate initiatives.

BSI Fund Chief Investment Officer Kojo Amoo-Gottfried joins Emerging Markets Decoded to discuss emerging markets topics including the macro perspective and investor sentiment toward the asset class.

Moody’s analysts discuss the economic and credit outlook for China, including the role of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and their debt burdens, and the latest on the property sector.

Moody’s analysts discuss the credit effects of South Africa’s energy crisis, including macro and social implications, as well as the government’s plans to address the crisis.

Moody’s analysts discuss updates to long-term sovereign debt forecasts, accounting for recent market conditions, including higher inflation and interest rates.

Special guests Lee C. Buchheit and David Lubin share their insights on emerging market sovereign debt crises, the US dollar’s future as a global reserve currency, China’s evolving economy and more.

Moody’s analysts discuss India’s growing manufacturing and infrastructure sectors, favorable demographics and potential to achieve significant scale across multiple sectors in the next decade.

Moody’s analysts explore credit risks related to natural capital and biodiversity loss, why emerging markets are more at risk than advanced economies and which sectors are most exposed.