To assess the post-election process and anticipate what lies ahead, The head of Michigan University's Center for Emerging Democracies joins Reformasi Dispatch to discuss his new article in the Journal of Democracy. Are expectations of "continuity" valid?  Is the electorate prepared for how President‑Elect Prabowo will govern?  Professor Slater also touches on trends in Hun Sen's Cambodia.  Also: Erin and Kevin discuss PDI‑P's reaction to the Constitutional Court's rejection of electoral...

Medan Mayor Bobby Nasution is seeking to run for governor of Indonesia's fourth-largest province and his father-in-law Joko Widodo appears keen to help -- Reformasi Dispatch examines why.  Also: With Lawrence Wong designated as Singapore's next prime minister, the city-state is embarking on a new era - but it might still bear close resemblance to the old...  Finally, Erin and Kevin discuss the twin impacts of a higher oil price and a weaker exchange rate on the fiscal outlook and fuel prices.

Amid electoral disputes unfolding in the Constitutional Court, President-Elect Prabowo Subianto abruptly appeared in Beijing, hosted by Xi Jinping.  Kevin and Erin Cook break down the significance and note that Prabowo sought to convey balance by also visiting Tokyo and Kuala Lumpur.  Also: how the new Jakarta Law exceeds expectations by making fewer changes than anticipated, and a check on developments in another Constitutional Court, in Bangkok. Subscribe to Reformasi weekly newsletter:...

Indonesia's national election vote‑count concluded relatively smoothly, with the Widodo family's PSI falling well short of inclusion in parliament while the Soeharto-era ruling party Golkar expanded its vote share at PDI‑Perjuangan's expense.  Jeff and Kevin break down the implications and outlook.  Also: an all-too predictable kerfuffle on new Customs restrictions for arriving travellers and some thoughts on a portentous WTO ruling on palm-derived biodiesel.

Reformasi Dispatch takes a closer look at the vote-count process unfolding, with help from a foremost civil-society figure, Khoirunnisa ('Ninis') Nur Agustyati of Perludem.  We discuss the technical drawbacks affecting the online 'SiRekap' display of the Election Commission (KPU) and whether commissioners acted judiciously in taking down the display on 5 March.  Ninis explains the significance of C-Form tabulations from ballot stations and possible explanations for some to still remain...

Indonesia's election authorities took down the 'SiRekap' online display of the vote count -- just after an improbable leap in the count for PSI, the party of the president's younger son.  Erin Cook of Dari Mulut ke Mulut steps in as co-host with Kevin to discuss the legislative‑election tallying, whether Jakarta's November gubernatorial contest will feature direct voting and to what extent parallels are discernible with politics in the Philippines.  Plus: weighing in on Taylor Swift and...

A recent presidential fashion statement -- a bright yellow necktie -- triggered anticipation that he may harbor designs on a takeover of Golkar, the Soeharto-era ruling party that will likely remain second-largest in the next parliament.  Insider sources cited by Tempo magazine corroborated this indication of this maneuvering via sartorial elegance.  But a Golkar takeover next December would be no simple task, even for the powerful Joko Widodo -- and it might conflict with the interests of...

Nickel smelter air pollution, and the cost on the economy and public health, is the focus of substantive research in a new 100-page report from Crea and Celios.  Crea analyst Katherine Hassan discusses the findings, methodology, and implications -- including the possibility of much of Eastern Indonesia eventually becoming a highly polluted and impoverished zone.  At issue is whether regulatory enforcement will address options for cleaner nickel processing technology, smokestack scrubbing and...

Pollster Seth Soderborg joins for our post election wrap up as Indonesians overwhelmingly cast ballots in the first round for Prabowo Subianto who syphoned support from Joko Widodo's fellow party member, Ganjar Pranowo. Now Ganjar's party, the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) must decide whether to join a governing coalition or reprise its role as parliamentary opposition. That's something its chair, Megawati Sukarnoputri may relish more than her cadres who may have developed a...

The Prabowo-Gibran ticket has succeeded in portraying the 14 February national election as, in effect, a referendum on Widodo-ism -- with themselves on the overwhelmingly popular side promising "continuity".  But will it instead, unbeknownst to many, actually prove to be a referendum on democracy? Jeff and Kevin discuss new polling data and the impact (if any) of some livelier public discourse in the final days approaching balloting.  We expect a comfortable first-round majority for Prabowo. ...

If you enjoy Reformasi Dispatch, you might enjoy our special episode. In this special episode, we talk to Andreas Harsono, a veteran reporter and rights advocate writing for the NGO Human Rights Watch. Get the episode on Buy Me A Coffee https://www.buymeacoffee.com/reformasi/e/219468

In the final days of campaigning, Prabowo has benefited from joint appearances with the popular president, but prospects for a one-round win are nonetheless questionable.  The professional public-opinion research analyst Seth Soderberg joins the pod to delve into the dynamics and assess probabilities.  Also: Jeff and Kevin examine cabinet resignation rumors and review the final presidential candidate debate.

As the presidential campaign enters the home stretch, President Widodo may weigh whether to overtly endorse Prabowo, which would indelibly tie him to Prabowo's fortunes.  Joint public appearances have been sustaining Prabowo's momentum, but prospects for a first-round majority are not yet fully assured.  Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss the politics of rice and food aid as the Widodo administration fends off a spike in the price of the key commodity just days ahead of the balloting. If you enjoy...

NetGrit founder Hadar Gumay explains the mechanics of the 14 February election process - from the voter list to the official count, and all the balloting procedures and monitoring systems in between.  Given his experience, this is tantamount to having the workings of a car engine explained by Henry Ford.  He cites the complexities, including Papua's communal noken voting, but notes the remarkable organizational successes of past elections.  Nonetheless, the upcoming process is not without...

As we gear up for an election year we are turning to our donors but this time we are giving back! As a token of our gratitude for your US$20 donation we are making available exclusive content, starting with a special podcast episode recapping the fourth presidential debate. Kevin and Jeff offer up analysis of who had a good night and who fell short. Donors will get insight into whether Indonesia’s fifth presidential election will go to a runoff in June. And if it does which candidate will...

Should Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto be thankful that President Widodo has provided vital backing?  Or should the president be grateful that Prabowo has provided a lifeline?  How these two regard one another may shape Indonesia's political outlook for some time.  For 'Perth-spective,' we turn to Murdoch University's Indo-Pacific Research Center and its senior fellow Ian Wilson, who is actually currently at Singapore's ISEAS.  Prof Wilson recounts Prabowo's past campaigning and Widodo's own...

Four friends of the pod chime in on how they see 2024 unfolding: human rights analyst Andreas Harsono, renewables expert Fabby Tumiwa, environmental scientist Katherine Hassan and Eurasia Group Southeast Asia Director Peter Mumford.  At the start of the new year, they outline the opportunities and stakes in their respective fields, touch on elections, the economy, energy and sustainability. Jeff and Kevin add their own musings and recap poll findings and developments ahead of the 14 February...

How resilient are the independent democratic institutions in Indonesia's current election process?  A chief monitor of electoral agencies, Khoirunissa of the pro-democracy NGO Perludem, examines campaign finance issues, enforcement of rules on gender equality and preparations for conducting candidate debates.  She also takes note of changing roles for key institutions that civil-society organizations (CSOs) had in the past supported as champions -- and points out that CSOs must now remain...

Human rights and the rule-of-law received rare scrutiny in a well-conducted first debate.  Awkward moments occurred for Prabowo Subianto, but new polling shows him very well cushioned.  Also discussed: a bill to end Jakarta governor elections, with bewilderingly broad support; and ministers narrowly avert (for now) a broad-backed effort to boost Anwar Usman and perhaps restore him as Constitutional Court chief justice.  And in memoriam: the passing of Southeast Asia's longest-serving foreign...

Gibran Rakabuming's VP nomination triggered a poll swing.  Author and Chatham House Asia-Pacific Director Ben Bland joins the pod to lend perspective.  Also: Ganjar's remarks on reformasi and President Widodo's  fireside chat with Joe Biden.

After a verdict favoring the president's son, the president's brother-in-law lost his post as Constitutional Court chief justice for having egregiously violated ethics.  To examine the details of the Ethics Panel ruling, Reformasi Dispatch consulted Bivitri Susanti, a prominent constitutional law expert with Jentera University.  The ruling cites Anwar Usman for failing to recuse, mishandling administration and, most brazenly, miscategorizing two of the court's nine opinions -- thereby...

Megawati visted her father's mausoleum in Blitar and, perhaps having drawn inspiration, permitted party officials immediately thereafter to uncork zingers aimed at Gibran and Prabowo -- whom Djarot Hidayat now calls the 'Neo New Order'.  Jeff and Kevin discuss the implications for the election - both legislative and presidential.   Also, background for the forthcoming Ethics Panel decision on Constitutional Court Chief Justice Anwar Usman and its implications -- as well as observations from...

A series of constitutional court decisions last week regarding age requirements for presidential and vice presidential candidates have carved out a loophole seemingly tailor made for President Joko Widodo's eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the mayor of Solo. Anyone seeking the highest or second highest office in the land must be 40 years old, according to a 2017 law. The court last week said the minimum age does not apply to anyone who has been elected to public office. As a result...

200 civil-society groups decried a re-writing of Indonesia's Election Law enabling the president's son to stand for vice presodent.  Jeff and Kevin discuss the implications and why there is hesitation about a Prabowo-Rakabuming ticket.  Also: Ganjar chooses Mahfud and police pursue the KPK.