Episodes
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Xi Jinping’s visit to France, Serbia and Hungary, where topics included cognac, "so-called overcapacity", the war in Ukraine, and Ambassador Lu Shaye twelve months after his comments about post-Soviet states. From there: The People’s Daily and other party media went dark for much of the day on Tuesday, and the Biden administration does not renew export licenses that allow Intel and Qualcomm to supply Huawei with semiconductors for...
Published 05/09/24
Published 05/09/24
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a surprise, 24-hour trip to China for Elon Musk, and a Sunday meeting with Premier Li Qiang. Topics include: The Musk meeting as PRC response to mounting scrutiny in the US, the benefits to both sides of the Tesla-PRC relationship, and why this week's news may not answer Tesla's long term questions in the Chinese market. From there: Parsing the readout from the April Politburo meeting, including insights into how leadership sees the economy now, an...
Published 05/01/24
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's trip to Beijing and Shanghai this week, including reports that the Blinken plans to warn PRC counterparts about their continued commercial support of Russia's defense industry, and additional reports that the U.S. has drafted sanctions that could be levied against Chinese banks facilitating that support. From there: The many flashpoints that have emerged since Xi Jinping and Joe Biden shared their "San Francisco...
Published 04/24/24
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the meeting between Xi Jinping and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, including muted messaging on overcapacity concerns, Germany’s investments in the PRC market, and a request for Xi Jinping to broker peace in Ukraine. From there: Economic data from Q1 in China, and a question about Beijing's calculus in the face of mounting tension between Iran and Israel. At the end: National Security Day and more anecdotes from the MSS, memories from...
Published 04/17/24
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen's visit to China, including what her meetings may or may not accomplish and the likely next steps for the Biden Administration in the months to come. From there: As the US and Europe grapple with the threat of cheaper PRC goods in key industries, how might China respond to raised tariffs around the world? Will there be consequences for continued support of Russia's defense industrial base? And how...
Published 04/10/24
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Tuesday’s phone call between President Biden and President Xi, including the PRC rhetoric surrounding US trade and tech policies, and messages to both domestic audiences and allies. From there: Janet Yellen’s visit to China and her evolving stance on PRC exports, the March Politburo meeting comes and goes without plenum news, Xi meets with U.S. business leaders, and Harvard’s Graham Allison emerges as a potential Henry Kissinger...
Published 04/04/24
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the Ministry of State Security providing its interpretation of the Cybersecurity Law. Topics include: The odd timing of this message as debate roils over TikTok, the legal and regulatory framework that’s emerged under Xi, and the lack of anonymity on the PRC internet. From there: The Hong Kong legislature passes Article 23 faster than expected, and an update on the state of the TikTok legislation as the Senate prepares for an intel briefing on...
Published 03/20/24
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a week of surprising progress for the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. With the House set to vote Wednesday, they discuss the origins of the bill and months of work behind the scenes, TikTok’s now-infamous in-app alert, and why Beijing is likely to oppose any divestment plan if the bill eventually becomes law. From there: The factions in Washington that are opposing this bill, regulatory obstacles for American...
Published 03/13/24
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the Two Sessions, including the work report from Premier Li Qiang, what to make of the 5 percent GDP growth target for 2024, the cancellation of Li's press conference, Xi Jinping’s visit to the Jiangsu breakout session and his message on new productive forces and economic development, and the evolution of the Two Sessions in recent years. From there: The latest exchange between the Philippines and the PRC in the South China Sea, the...
Published 03/06/24
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with an overview of the CPPCC, the NPC and what to expect as the Two Sessions begin this weekend. Topics include: Xi’s recent absence from public view, the resignation of Qin Gang as an NPC delegate, Li Shangfu’s removal from the party CMC’s official website, Li Qiang’s first work report as premier, and why Xi Jinping’s is unlikely to echo last year’s comments on the US. From there: Reactions to the I-SOON leaks as evidence of PRC hacking continues to...
Published 02/28/24
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with recent meetings between US officials and PRC counterparts in Munich and Vienna, including complaints from both Director of the CCP Central Foreign Affairs Commission and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong that the U.S. has harassed PRC students trying to enter the U.S., as well as a note about China's designation as a "major drug source country." From there: The MSS takes to WeChat to criticize the CIA, while the...
Published 02/21/24
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with another week of volatility in and around the PRC markets, including a crash on Monday, stabilization as the week unfolded, reports of a meeting between Xi and regulators, and changes at the CSRC. Then: For the first time in 17 years Mexico has supplanted China as the biggest U.S. trade partner, which raises questions about the future of the bilateral trade relationship and volume of PRC goods that have been diverted through countries like Mexico and...
Published 02/09/24
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to the revival of Article 23 and thoughts on the landscape in Hong Kong as its laws continue to converge with the mainland. Then: A step back for the stock markets after last week’s stabilization efforts, another politburo meeting comes and goes without any announcement of a plenum, and a question about buying real estate in China. At the end: A listener has a question about President Trump and Taiwan, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew is grilled by...
Published 02/02/24
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with an expanding list of sensitive sites around China at which Tesla vehicles have been deemed a security risk. With the PRC electric vehicle industry expanding every year, what does the future look like for Elon Musk and Tesla in China? And as PRC auto manufacturing outpaces domestic demand, how might the rest of the world react as Chinese cars flood foreign markets? Then: A few new messages and policies emerge as Beijing’s response to weak investor...
Published 01/26/24
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with last weekend’s election in Taiwan, where William Lai and the DPP retained their hold on the presidency but lost a majority in legislature. Topics include: The reactions from China and around the world, continued questions about a timeline for reunification, Hong Kong as a cautionary tale for the Taiwanese, Nauru and the United Nations, and sparring between the Foreign Ministry and the Philippines. From there: Li Qiang delivers good news to Davos,...
Published 01/19/24
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a note about this weekend’s elections in Taiwan before turning back to the upheaval in the PLA. Topics include: Bloomberg's reporting on a US intelligence assessment, realism on PRC capabilities, the history of PLA corruption, and recent reporting about China's nuclear ambitions. From there: Reactions to the foreign affairs work conference in late December, why Beijing sees opportunities around the world, and thoughts on Liu Jianchao's visit to the...
Published 01/12/24
On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through questions and key areas to watch during the year to come in China. First: A look at the economy a year after the end of dynamic zero covid, including a Bloomberg report on real estate market and household wealth, MSS warnings about discourse traps, and a corruption crackdown that's likely to continue. Then: Foreign policy questions include ongoing tensions with the Philippines and Taiwan, an ODNI report on election interference in the US, and a...
Published 12/21/23
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with thoughts on the readout from the Central Economic Work Conference, including the emphasis on "progress" alongside stability, high-quality development and high-level security, PRC attempts at brand management, and where infrastructure investment might be going. From there: More water cannons, more controversy, and the same concerns as problems persist between the Chinese Coast Guard and the Philippines in the South China Sea. At the end: Frustrations...
Published 12/13/23
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the claims contained in a controversial piece from Politico, including thoughts on the spectrum of rumors surrounding this year’s disappearing cabinet members, the smaller-than-ever circle of true insiders in Xi’s China, and certain details of present-day CPC politics and that are beyond dispute. From there: Several stories in and around the finance sector, where there have been more warnings against relaying bad news, there is still no third...
Published 12/08/23
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a new generation of foreign influencers said to be assisting in Xi's campaign to “tell China's story well” and an update on Wolf Warrior diplomacy as 2023 draws to a close. Then: Q&A with the Sinocism chat, including a request for tangible signs of fentanyl progress, regional governments vying for debt relief, Li Qiang at the Central Financial Commission, and a look at why and how PRC citizens are moving investments outside China. At the end: One...
Published 11/29/23
On today's show Andrew and Bill look back at a week of news from San Francisco. Topics include: A "tactical stabilization" in the US-China relationship, world leaders comparing cars, concessions from the US and a PRC commitment on fentanyl, whether China would prefer Biden or Trump in 2024, and what else was achieved on both sides of the Biden-Xi meeting last week. From there: Xi’s message to the business community (and why some foreign investors were hoping for more), President Biden doubles...
Published 11/21/23
After one year of Sharp Tech and Sharp China, a summit with Ben Thompson, Bill Bishop and Andrew Sharp to discuss podcasting, the chip ban, the US-China relationship and beyond.
Published 11/16/23
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping’s trip to San Francisco and a likely meeting with President Biden next week. Topics include: A planned dinner with business leaders, why the PRC hasn’t yet confirmed the trip, modest goals for both sides, more ambitious concessions China and the US may seek. From there: Janet Yellen’s column in the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal offers one calculation for foreign capital flight, and why changes at the as yet unscheduled Third...
Published 11/08/23
On today’s show Bill and Andrew begin with the passing of Li Keqiang, the grief that swept China over the weekend, and the various party protocols that were set in motion to control the mourning process this week. From there: Another Politburo meeting comes and goes with no news about a third plenum to devise new economic policy, the modest progress and persistent structural challenges animating the US-China relationship in 2023, and the MSS turns its eyes to meteorology. At the end: Extended...
Published 11/01/23