On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with PRC messaging at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, including the US responses to new Defense Minister Dong Jun, how neighboring countries perceive the divergence between PRC rhetoric and PRC actions, and takeaways from Operation Joint Sword-2024A. From there: Parsing Xi's January speech on "New Quality Productive Forces" in advance of the third plenum, overcapacity is becoming a political problem more than an economic debate, and a Financial Times story sheds light on the state of Russia-China negotiations surrounding the Siberia 2 pipeline. At the end: Bill remembers his time in China during the spring of 1989, thoughts on the structural forces that have suppressed memories of June 4 inside China, and lessons that the party has internalized in the decades that followed.