Episodes
US equity futures are broadly unchanged as of 05:00 ET. This follows mixed markets in Asia, while European equity markets are higher. The latest Fed-speak is consistent with last week's message from Fed Chair Powell that a rate hike is unlikely. Earnings growth is tracking well above expectations. China President Xi is in France to discuss trade and security risks. Companies mentioned: Paramount Global, Apollo Global Management, Sony, Apple
Published 05/07/24
US futures are pointing to a higher open today, extending Friday's gains. European equity markets have opened in the positive territory, following solid sessions in Asian markets. Softer than expected US nonfarm payrolls and ISM services results boosted sentiment. Fed repricing also brought forward, with first rate cut expected in September instead of November. Some support also comes from US earnings. China back in spotlight as Xi meets Macron and Caixin services PMI remained...
Published 05/06/24
US futures are indicating a higher open today. European equity markets have opened mostly in the positive territory, following higher levels in Asian markets. Big tech earnings are bright spot in market. Corporate fundamentals remain supportive though reactions to headline surprises skewed to cautious side. Broader support to market sentiment put down to latest Fed guidance offering reassurance that rate hike is unlikely. Companies Mentioned: Apple, Walt Disney, Amazon, Airbus, Spirit...
Published 05/03/24
US equity futures are indicating a higher open as of 04:45 ET. This follows higher markets in Asia, while European equity markets are also higher. Equity markets are benefiting from no further escalation in Middle Eastern tensions. Some thoughts are the recent sell-off is more technical than fundamental. There is also ongoing focus on the Fed outlook, with a reduction in rate cut expectations remaining a talking point. Companies mentioned: DOW, Arkema, Freshworks, Exxon Mobil, Pioneer...
Published 05/02/24
US equity futures are indicating a lower open as of 04:45 ET. A large number of markets closed for Labor Day holidays, but the ones that are open were lower in Asian and European trading. Attention on rates heightening ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. No policy change is expected but markets are awaiting further guidance from Powell following significant erosion in rate cut expectations priced in the market. Companies mentioned: IBM, PG&E, KKR, Pfizer
Published 05/01/24
US equity futures are indicating a slightly lower open as of 05:00 ET. This follows mostly higher markets in Asia, while European equity markets are mixed. Monday's yen volatility continued to reverberate overnight. China official manufacturing PMI was little changed in expansion territory, while non-manufacturing index was softer than expected. Markets are mostly awaiting tomorrow's FOMC, employment data and Treasury quarterly refunding, along with megacap earnings. Companies mentioned:...
Published 04/30/24
US futures are pointing to a higher open today. And European equity markets have opened in the positive territory, following advanced levels in Asian markets. Yen in headlines as it rebounded. Market focus also on concerns over hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations with only one rate cut now being priced in for 2024. Also concerns that Fed will have no scope to ease at all in 2024. Companies Mentioned: Heartland Financial, UMB Financial, Zoetis, Phibro Animal Health, Fulton Bank,...
Published 04/29/24
US futures are pointing to a higher open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have opened in the positive territory, following mostly higher Asian markets. BOJ left policy settings unchanged as expected. FY24 core inflation projection upgraded. FY26 core inflation around 2%. Bond purchases to be conducted in accordance with decisions made in March. Finance Minister Suzuki expressed concerns over negative effect of yen depreciation, repeating readiness to act if needed. Companies Mentioned:...
Published 04/26/24
US futures are pointing to a lower open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have opened mixed, following mixed to lower Asian markets. Upcoming US GDP and PCE readings broadly highlighted as main risk events. Attention also on FX developments with yen breaking into 155 vs dollar and entering range expected to prompt MOF intervention. BOJ policy still widely expected to remain unchanged. Companies Mentioned: Meta Platforms, HashiCorp, IBM, Boeing
Published 04/25/24
US equity futures are indicating a higher open as of 05:00 ET. This follows broadly higher markets in Asia, while European equity markets are firmer. Sentiment remains positive with lower rates and a weaker dollar helping on Tuesday after softer US flash PMI data. The focus in US after-hours was on earnings from Tesla. Companies mentioned: Tesla, Texas Instruments, Visa
Published 04/24/24
US equity futures are indicating a mostly flat open as of 04:45 ET. This follows higher markets in Asia, while European equity markets are also higher. Equity markets are benefiting from no further escalation in Middle Eastern tensions. Some thoughts are the recent sell-off is more technical than fundamental. There is also ongoing focus on the Fed outlook, with a reduction in rate cut expectations remaining a talking point. Companies mentioned: JD Sports Fashion, Hibbett, Novartis, SAP
Published 04/23/24
US equity futures are indicating a higher open as of 04:45 ET. This follows higher markets in Asia, while European equity markets are also higher. Sentiment improving amid some tentative signs of easing in the Middle Eastern tensions. Iran continues to downplay the Israeli attack, suggesting no appetite to escalate the situation. The market continues to evaluate the Fed outlook. Some Fed officials warn of the potential for no rate cuts this year. Companies mentioned: Express, NYSE, Unilever,...
Published 04/22/24
US equity futures are indicating a lower open as of 04:45 ET. This follows lower markets in both Asia and Europe, following escalation in the Middle-East overnight with reports of Israeli strikes on facilities inside Iran. However, much remains unclear, including what was struck and the extent of damage. Markets continue to pare back Fed easing expectations with futures pricing in 1-2 cuts and the first now not anticipated until September. Companies mentioned: Paramount Global, Sony, Apollo...
Published 04/19/24
US equity futures are indicating a higher open as of 04:45 ET. This follows higher markets in Asia, while European equity markets are also higher. Sentiment remains weighed down by hawkish repricing of the Fed rate path with futures now only pricing in 1-2 rate cuts in 2024. Some attention on US, Japan, and South Korea financial leaders' summit, where Treasury Secretary Yellen acknowledged counterparts' concerns over exchange rate depreciation. Companies mentioned: Micron Technology,...
Published 04/18/24
US equity futures are indicating a higher open as of 04:45 ET. This follows mixed markets in Asia, while European equity markets are mostly higher. No change in the market drivers, as confluence of Fed policy repricing, risk aversion and elevated volatility continues. Markets are now pricing in less than 50 basis points of Fed easing this year amid the latest Fedspeak and data resilience. Companies mentioned: Adidas, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Just Eat Takeaway.com
Published 04/17/24
US equity futures are indicating a broadly flat open as of 05:00 ET. This follows sharply lower markets in Asia, while European equity markets are broadly weaker. Middle East tensions continue to weigh on risk sentiment. Bond yields continue to backup, continuing the recent hawkish repricing of the Fed rate outlook amid firmer US data. FX volatility is the other big market development, especially in Asia. Companies mentioned: International Paper, DS Smith, Live Nation Entertainment,...
Published 04/16/24
US equity futures are indicating a higher open as of 05:00 ET. This follows weaker markets in Asia, while European equity markets are mostly higher. Markets are dealing with the fallout from the Iranian missile and drone assault against Israel. Treasury Secretary Yellen said nothing is off the table when dealing with China's overcapacity, including the use of additional tariffs. China pledges stronger stock market regulation and risk prevention measures. Companies mentioned: Salesforce,...
Published 04/15/24
US equity futures are indicating a broadly unchanged open as of 05:00 ET. This follows mostly lower markets in Asia, while European equity markets are broadly higher. Markets are finding some reprieve from cooler-than-expected US PPI. However, markets are pricing in less than two Fed rate cuts in 2024. ECB-speak after yesterday's policy decision is supporting a June cut, in a divergence from Fed policy. US banks will kickoff Q1 earnings season today. Companies mentioned: Brookfield Asset...
Published 04/12/24
US equity futures are indicating a broadly unchanged open as of 04:45 ET. This follows mixed markets in Asia, while European equity markets are mostly higher. Markets are digesting the implications from yesterday's hotter US CPI print. The data prompted another round of hawkish rate re-pricing with futures pricing in two Fed cuts in 2024 - one less than Fed's median projection. Focus is on the ECB’s decision today, as well as FX intervention watch after the Yen broke below the closely watched...
Published 04/11/24
US equity futures are indicating a broadly unchanged open as of 04:45 ET. This follows mixed markets in Asia, while European equity markets are mostly higher. The market is in waiting mode for several potential catalysts, particularly the March CPI due later today. We also have the ECB decision on Thursday and the start of bank earnings season on Friday. In overseas developments, Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its official cash rate unchanged as expected and reiterated rates need to remain...
Published 04/10/24
US equity futures are indicating a broadly unchanged open as of 05:00 ET. This follows mostly firmer markets in Asia, while European equity markets are mostly lower. There are no fresh catalysts for markets, with the stronger US growth backdrop still the overriding influence. Wednesday's US CPI data is in focus, with the report expected to garner even more attention than usual given the firmer US growth backdrop. Companies mentioned: Meta, WW International, TSMC
Published 04/09/24
US futures are pointing to a mostly flat as of 04:45 ET. European equity markets have opened higher, following mostly higher Asian markets. Bond weakness the big story on global markets with yields propelled higher by a hotter-than-expected US payrolls report. In overseas developments, Asian market participants are eyeing a potential FX intervention from Japanese authorities with USD/JPY pair close to 152, eyed as a potential red line. Companies Mentioned: Exxon Mobil, Shimao, China...
Published 04/08/24
US futures are pointing to a higher open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have opened much lower, following mostly weaker Asian markets. Geopolitical tensions largely been ignored by markets, but Middle East fighting has driven risk-off move on equity markets. Oil is at 6-month high, fueling concerns it will slow disinflation momentum. Nervousness in US ahead of non-farm payrolls amid debate over when Fed will first cut rates. ECB minutes and bank officials highlighted gradual approach...
Published 04/05/24
US equity futures are indicating a higher open as of 04:45 ET. This follows mixed markets in Asia, while European equity markets are higher. Equity markets have taken encouragement from comments from Fed Chair Powell, who said on Wednesday if the economy evolves as expected then it’s likely appropriate to begin cutting rates at some point this year. However, the strength in commodities may undermine the disinflation narrative if sustained. Attention now centers on March US nonfarm payrolls on...
Published 04/04/24