Anton Wahlman joins us as we dive into numbers, production curves and the clash between reality, vision and hubris over autonomous cars Tesla's "financial equation" merits much discussion interspersed with reflections on an EV landscape littered with government subsidies. We close with accounting, including a dissertation on variable costs and the burden of "dealerless" car sales.

We dive into the new thing. Can a well known brand do something new? Must the new thing stand alone? Must it have a new name, a new distribution model? We evaluate BMW's "i" initiative from both a strategic and tactical perspective. BMW, Ford and the other automakers have not a small number of new products and services, apart from traditional cars. Jobs to be done appears again, as Horace expresses his single pedal "serenity" in traffic. We close with a few quotes from Ford CEO Mark...

We dive into the new thing. Can a well known brand do something new? Must the new thing stand alone? Must it have a new name, a new distribution model? We evaluate BMW's "i" initiative from both a strategic and tactical perspective. BMW, Ford and the other automakers have not a small number of new products and services, apart from traditional cars. Jobs to be done appears again, as Horace expresses his single pedal "serenity" in traffic. We close with a few quotes from Ford CEO Mark...

We talk finance and other curiosities with Sviatoslav Rosov PhD, CFA, Analyst. Beginning with Henry Ford’s “Old Fashioned Layaway Plan” followed by the launch of General Motors Acceptance Corporation, the Certified Pre-Owned sleight of hand and today’s auto sales finance and reporting controversies all shaped the industry. Finance is one of many vectors which tie the system together into what its is. We once again explore the other vectors that might open disruptive opportunities for an...

We talk finance and other curiosities with Sviatoslav Rosov PhD, CFA, Analyst. Beginning with Henry Ford’s “Old Fashioned Layaway Plan” followed by the launch of General Motors Acceptance Corporation, the Certified Pre-Owned sleight of hand and today’s auto sales finance and reporting controversies all shaped the industry. Finance is one of many vectors which tie the system together into what its is. We once again explore the other vectors that might open disruptive opportunities for an...

Horace and Jim begin with the industry's rhetorical bubble. We consider the auto eco-system's atmospherics on auto companions and quickly revert back to the reality of today's manufacturing practices and industry lead times. Horace notes the early development of steam, electric and internal combustion engine cars. We discuss the external assets that sustained the engines we use today and what might change in the near term to support significant electric vehicle (EV) growth. We close in...

Horace and Jim begin with the industry's rhetorical bubble. We consider the auto eco-system's atmospherics on auto companions and quickly revert back to the reality of today's manufacturing practices and industry lead times. Horace notes the early development of steam, electric and internal combustion engine cars. We discuss the external assets that sustained the engines we use today and what might change in the near term to support significant electric vehicle (EV) growth. We close in...

Announcements arrive with regularity. Ford and Google reveal plans to cooperate on autonomous cars. Toyota's aims to begin "precision mapping" roads. Ford zigs in another direction and eyes CityMapper's terrain with its proposed "Dynamic Shuttle" service. So much slideware. Horace dives into the data. EV and hybrid cars currently represent a tiny fraction of the market. OPEC recently forecast that by 2040, 94 percent of the vehicles on the world's roads will still be powered by...

Announcements arrive with regularity. Ford and Google reveal plans to cooperate on autonomous cars. Toyota's aims to begin "precision mapping" roads. Ford zigs in another direction and eyes CityMapper's terrain with its proposed "Dynamic Shuttle" service. So much slideware. Horace dives into the data. EV and hybrid cars currently represent a tiny fraction of the market. OPEC recently forecast that by 2040, 94 percent of the vehicles on the world's roads will still be powered by...

We consider the landscape that Apple's purported Titan project will address in a few years time. Horace discusses the pattern of disruption powered by Moore's law. We turn to the transportation sector and consider the "reimagining" of the car. We further consider scenarios, from sustaining where the current players grow, to new entrant opportunities. The conversation diverts a bit into the regulatory and taxation regime, specifically US road funding is largely tied to fuel taxes. We...

We begin a speculative show in Berlin, where a cab driver laments “young people arriving in the city to party and sleep on couches”. Might Berlin’s youthful visitors in 2050 simply crash in their autonomous pods? Horace races forward and muses on a future filled with roving, autonomous Winnebagos. Jim notes that there have been previous attempts at such vehicles, particularly with 1960’s and 1970’s era vans. Big data and algorithms run interference. Will autonomous pod players be naturally...

Mathew Desmond joins us to discuss Cars Online 2015 - The Selfie Experience. The evolving power of the connected customer. We begin with the fascinating finding that “One-half of customers are interested in buying a car from a tech company like Apple or Google. This is true even of customers who are satisfied with their current brand and dealer experience. It is particularly true of young customers (65%) and those in growth markets (China: 74%; India: 81%).” Backing up a bit, we discuss the...

We revisit “Antennagate”. Should organizations hire people with industry skills and experience or capable, driven outsiders? Horace shares tales from Henry Ford’s personnel practices during the Model T to Model A transition. The conversation accelerates into a discussion of aesthetics and jobs to be done. We muse on Tesla’s development, supply chain, aesthetics and market position while contrasting that with Toyota’s introduction of the Prius. We close with speculation on what a “meaningful...

Horace and Jim talk with Matthew Gunson, Director of Brand Management at Phoenix based Local Motors. We learn about Local’s business model, their view of automotive jobs to be done and the 3D printing driven micro factory. Automotive nostalgia and a detour into consumer behavior closes our conversation.

From the moment an idea is worth having no one cares what it costs - Andre Citroen The incomparable Citroen DS (French homophone: déesse), 60 years old this year. Hydropneumatic, self-levelling suspension aerodynamic and interior design efficiency, swiveling headlights, novel construction methods. Ahead of its time even in 1985. Why did this iconic design not endure?

Gartner asserts that “connected cars or smart cars are poised to play a pivotal role in the Internet of Things (IoT)”. We say “Hah!” Also How levies platform taxes. What in the world could “over serving” transportation mean? Using an Automatic App in a Porsche. BMW Sounding the Alarm over tech companies efforts to collect auto data China’s car industry and other unimportant details relative to declining interest in driving among young people.

We consider Uber’s street smarts, “cash on the hood” driver acquisition tactics and their ability to operate over the top, that is above local regulations and norms. The proposed elimination of diesel cars in Paris and London ignites a side trip through today’s regulatory labyrinth. Horace reflects on a recent Tesla test drive while evaluating innovation on jobs to be done, form factor design, production methods and their business model. Jim considers Sandy Munro’s recent BMW i3 teardown,...

What motivates a company to destroy its brand? We start with Mini’s plans to sell 100,000 cars in the States by 2020, nearly double today’s pace and remember how Cadillac destroyed their brand and how Mercedes, Porsche, Ferrari et. al. can’t wait to do the same. Also, might retail power in the form of strong dealer regulation limit brand’s ability to improve or address customer experiences? What motivated Warren Buffet to enter the American car dealer business? (With a long aside on what...

Why did the Tata Nano fail? What is the future of low end disruption in the auto industry? What does sharing mean for cars? What are the jobs that spaces in cars are hired for that their makers don’t understand? Is Elon Musk an Industrialist?

Part I is a review of the “automotive stack” and note how there is no singular event that seems to affect disruptive change. From changing jobs to be done, modular design and manufacturing processes, powertrain evolution, urbanization, environmental interests, regulation and taxation. Part II is a review of a framework of analysis based on sources and uses of energy. Inputs, efficiency/losses, network effects and inertia, what can change and what can’t change. For a shot of theory, Horace...

Steve Crandall joins us to discuss hydrogen fuel cells vs. lithium batteries. The two alternatives to post-internal-combustion motoring are far harder to assess than it might seem. Both require systems analysis and the systems themselves need to be weighed against the incumbent infrastructure and jobs to be done. We begin with Toyota’s fuel cell sedan announcement and recall Honda’s Clarity. The conversation leads to the observation that technical merit is not always sufficient or even...

Matt Grantham joins us to discuss electric vehicles, renewable energy, smarter software, solar opportunities and economics. Matt introduces us to Solar X, the solar car challenge. He reflects on these emerging technologies in light of Australia’s nearly extinct auto manufacturing sector. We explore the concept of a car as the home power source and consider possible EV disruption of traditional power generation and distribution concerns. The potential business models arising from these...

Ossi Oikarinen, Horace and Jim dive into the culture, interests, rules, technology and organization of Formula 1 and DTM racing. We explore the driver’s role in an increasingly technology driven competition while comparing Germany’s DTM series with America’s NASCAR. We consider racing’s future in light of the replacement of the broadcast TV model with pay per view.

On continental road trips, joys of rear wheel drive, diesel engines and autobahn speeds, pilgrimage to Porsche and BMW’s brand meccas. How to understand the world through toy cars, from Matchbox to Hot Wheels, Siku, Majorette to Tomica. Jim returns to the business of car distribution with an Alfred Sloan quote: “Between 1923–29 the leveling of demand for new cars logically resulted in a change of emphasis in the industry from production to distribution. On the sales end that meant a change...

Jim shares the joys of two recent rural road trips. The changing landscape, from discarded bank buildings and big box stores to a lack of traffic on these roads offers an opportunity to reflect on the atrophying auto eco-system. Horace notes the behavior changes leading to reduced use of autos. Alternatives, including bicycles, public transport, walking and car sharing services can be used to move atoms in a more efficient and environmentally friendly manner. Jim reflects on Ford’s $1,500,000...