Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken about the outlook for cross-strait tensions and US-China relations following the recent election in Taiwan. 

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief Foreign Exchange Strategist Chester Ntonifor about the outlook for the US dollar. What are the forces that have recently been driving the dollar lower? Will expensive valuations dampen the dollar's ability to strengthen in the event of a recession? And what are the conditions that are needed for carry trades to perform well going forward?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief US Bond Strategist Ryan Swift about the outlook for the Treasury market. What is the labor market data signaling about the near-term outlook for bond yields? Are the 2024 rate cut expectations priced into bond markets reasonable? And what is the role of the supply of Treasury securities versus the role of macroeconomic conditions as a driver of bond yields?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategist Rajeeb Pramanik about the Indian economy's role in the global economy. How has India performed in terms of its contribution to overall global GDP growth and its contribution to the rest of the world's GDP growth? Based on these results, can India replace China as a driver of global growth?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief European Investment Strategist Mathieu Savary about the outlook for the Eurozone economy and risk assets. What is the data signaling about growth conditions and the prospect of a stabilization? What are the implications for ECB policy? And is there scope for the euro to strengthen over the near term?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist Bob Ryan about the outlook for oil markets amid elevated geopolitical risks. How is Bob accounting for the potential impact of these risks? At what price level does demand destruction become a concern? And can prices rise in a scenario in which the economy is in recession?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief Geopolitical Strategist Matt Gertken about the implications of the crisis in the Middle East on financial markets. Will the conflict broaden? What will be the impact on Saudi-Israeli negotiations to form a security pact? And what are the implications for oil markets and the US elections?  

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief Global Asset Allocation Strategist Garry Evans about the outlook for global financial markets. What will it take for the correlation between stock prices and bond yields to flip back to positive? Which equity sectors are worth overweighting within global equity portfolios? And which global financial assets are currently attractive upside hedges in case the global economy remains more resilient than anticipated?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief Emerging Markets Strategist Arthur Budaghyan about EM equity dynamics. What are the key drivers of the EM equity index? Do the relatively cheaper valuations make a compelling case for EM stocks? And will the pivot to interest rate cuts boost economic conditions in EM economies?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief Global Fixed Income strategist Rob Robis about the outcome of recent DM central bank meetings and the outlook for global monetary policy. What are the key takeaways from the big three central banks? Will government bond yields climb higher? And which central banks will lead the pivot to easing monetary policy?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief US Bond strategist Ryan Swift about inflation dynamics and monetary policy following the August US CPI release. Is the disinflation trend intact? What inflation indicators should investors watch most closely? Are energy prices a risk to disinflation? And how will these dynamics play into Fed policy going forward?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief US Investment strategist Doug Peta about the state of the US economy and implications for US stocks. What is the signal from the latest round of US economic data? Why is a neutral equity allocation now appropriate? And what will it take to change the equity allocation to either underweight or overweight? 

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief US Political Strategist Matt Gertken about the implications of the US election cycle on financial markets. What is the geopolitical method and how does it apply to US elections? Are primary elections relevant to investors? And how do stocks perform in election years?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief US Equity Strategist Irene Tunkel about the implications of the AI boom on US equities. Is there scope for semi-stocks to rally further? Will growth stocks outperform value stocks? And will Nvidia’s results catalyze another upleg for the S&P 500?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist about global oil supply and demand fundamentals. Are Russian supply risks adequately priced into oil markets? Would Saudi Arabia raise output in the event of a Russian oil supply shock? And what is the outlook for EM oil demand growth?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategist Chester Ntonifor about the outlook for G10 currencies amid greater data dependency across central banks. What is the likely direction of EUR/USD? In the absence of forward guidance from central banks, what will be the key drivers that will determine the winners and losers in the G10 FX space? And will the BoJ’s YCC tweak be enough to boost the yen’s prospects?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief China Investment strategist Arthur Budaghyan about his take on the outcome of the Politburo meeting. Are the measures that were announced sufficient to boost the Chinese economy? Will the property market improve over the coming months? And what is holding policymakers back from easing policy more meaningfully? 

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief Counterpoint strategist Dhaval Joshi about his recession outlook. Why should investors focus on the timing of the next global recession? What is the evidence that the global recession has already started? Does the strong year-to-date performance of global equities contradict the thesis that the global economy is in recession? And will policymakers shift their focus towards measures to reignite economic growth?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief US Bond strategist Ryan Swift about inflation dynamics and monetary policy following the June US CPI release. Will the inflation downtrend continue? How many more rate hikes are in the pipeline? And what are the sources of upside and downside pressure on Treasury yields going forward?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief European Investment strategist Mathieu Savary about the European growth outlook. Will economic weakness spill into H2? What are the likely tailwinds to growth over the remainder of the year? Will weak manufacturing remain a drag on growth? And how long will the sequential growth improvement last and how strong will it be?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief US Investment strategist Doug Peta about the year-to-date performance of US equities. What are the factors that contributed to this rally? Should investors start taking some chips off the table? And can IT stocks continue to decouple from Treasury yields?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief Global Fixed Income strategist Rob Robis about recent global monetary policy decisions and their implication for global bond markets. Will the Fed deliver another 50 bps of rate hikes? How much longer can the ECB continue to tighten policy? And do the latest BoC and RBA rate hikes suggest that there is scope for other global central banks to deliver hawkish surprises going forward?

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief Private Markets & Alternatives strategist Brian Payne about the new BCA service. What makes BCA’s Private Markets & Alternatives service unique? How does the service combine its macroeconomic outlook with a bottom-up analysis to assess the outlook for the various asset classes within PMA? And what are the forces that are contributing to a relatively appealing backdrop for Private Credit? 

Host Roukaya Ibrahim talks to BCA Research’s Chief Emerging Markets and China Investment strategist Arthur Budaghyan about the recent performance of Chinese financial markets. What is behind this weakness in Chinese assets? What is the likelihood that policymakers will attempt to boost growth conditions by unleashing irrigation-style stimulus? Is the bad news already priced in Chinese assets and China plays?