Joseph Lupton joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss recent shifts in consumer confidence, its fundamental drivers and the outlook for consumer spending. Macroeconomic fundamentals such inflation, income growth, labor markets and stock markets explain a reasonable share of movements in consumer confidence. But the latest consumer sentiment readings for DM economies broadly sit below the levels suggested by macro conditions. A decoupling of this consumer “malaise” from actual consumer behavior in...

A good week for data delivers some relief on inflation and points to some moderation in growth, both of which are needed to keep central banks on the path toward easing. However, with inflation still elevated and labor markets still hot, more will be needed to put us back on the path to a soft-landing. Easing financial conditions could be too much of a good thing, short-circuiting the journey. This podcast was recorded on 17 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes...

Africa Edge stands out with best primary balance position across frontiers recorded last year. And economies in Africa have improved their primary balance positions in a significant manner in recent years, a trend that we expect to continue. This has been largely on the back of IMF-led reforms, but higher oil prices also helped.   This podcast was recorded on 15 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at...

Featured in this podcast is Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton. As we trim the tails of extreme risks to the upside and downside around the global outlook, we are settling into a resilient downshift. Sticky elevated inflation should give central banks more grief than it appears to have so far and rates markets have repriced. And yet, risk markets have taken it all in stride—because, in the end, we are all just talking about tracking (a resilient expansion).   This podcast was recorded on 5/10/2024....

With growth and inflation both surprising to the upside in recent months (in the US and more broadly globally), confidence in the path to central bank easing has been shaken. In signaling that rate cuts are still on the near-horizon, both the Fed and ECB are hoping the data return to the path of immaculate disinflation that characterized 2H23. Absent that, we would expect a material narrative shift to follow in the face of continued upside growth and inflation surprises. Speakers: Bruce...

Speakers: Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the April jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion...

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks  join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the nascent recoveries in the Euro area and UK,  their varied implications for inflation and expectations for monetary policy easing. Despite raising our sights on Western European growth in recent weeks, we continue to expect the ECB to begin easing in June and the Bank of England from next quarter. A backdrop of a sustained sub-par performance lowers the bar to start the easing process. But the improvement in current growth...

In contrast to past episodes of yield spikes we believe it is unlikely that the recent rise in global bond yields will be reversed as markets sustainably shift up expectations for growth and the policy rate path for 2024-25. Next week’s FOMC meeting will likely see Chair Powell back away from the current dot plot and point to June as a time for a broader reassessment of the policy path ahead. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Jay Barry This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024. This communication is...

Speakers:  Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the monthly global inflation report and unpack implications for central bank monetary policy.   This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report...

Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the global CPI reports for March and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and  monetary policy.    This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4683349-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for...

Another week of stronger-than-expected growth data now has first-quarter global GDP tracking roughly a %-point above trend, similar to the robust outcome posted last year. Expectations remain for a deceleration but are we missing something more inherently robust? If so, what would that mean for inflation and how would central banks react?   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 19 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only....

Strong growth alongside elevated inflation raises risks of both a high-for-long soft landing and a boil-the-frog higher-for-longer hard landing. Stronger-than-expected US CPI for a third straight month pushes out pricing of Fed cuts. Spillover to risk markets and to the rest of global monetary policy poses a risk to the expansion. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Michael Hanson This podcast was recorded on 12 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional...

Continued strong growth and robust labor markets alongside strong profits raise the likelihood of a longer expansion even if sticky inflation keeps odds of high-for-longer rates elevated. This week’s global PMIs and US payroll report underscore ongoing resilience, likely pushing back timing and/or magnitude of easing cycles. A key unknown is how this would revert back to financial conditions and short-circuit growth. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 05 April...

Speakers:  Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist   Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the March jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on 5 April 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion...

Michael Hanson and Murat Tasci analyze the factors that can —and cannot — account for the growing divergence between payroll and household employment, including immigration    This podcast was recorded on 04/04/2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4659901-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan...

Hints of a pickup in global capex are emerging in activity data and surveys, with next week’s March global PMI likely to show positive news on manufacturing. On another front we remain confident in our forecast for high-for-long policy rates, which should be reinforced by a US immigration surge that is boosting both supply and demand. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional...

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports globally and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. Early 2024 data provide strong support for our view of a disinflation stall in 1H24. Global core CPI picked up to a 0.3%m/m sa pace in January-February, pushing our 1Q24 forecast to 3.4%ar. A phase of global goods price disinflation looks to have ended while service price inflation remains sticky. We expect core...

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the February global inflation report. This podcast was recorded on March 25, 2024 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/KAL-1-GMV4YY4X for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co....

This week displayed significant diversity in central bank actions amid a clear-cut positive signal from the data flow (DM PMIs and China activity). While central bank diversity is an important theme, the dominant signal for markets is the hawkish guidance delivered by Chair Powell and Governor Ueda. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 22 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit...

Michael Feroli joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the economic effects of surging US immigration. Immigration has soared over the last few years, profoundly affecting some of the widely-followed economic statistics. It’s been important to the surprising pace of job growth, even alongside a modestly increasing unemployment rate. This, in turn, has added to overall income and output growth. The increase in immigration probably hasn’t had a first order effect on inflation: immigrants add to labor...

The news flow supports our core views on growth resilience and core inflation stickiness as we turn into the new year. As central banks process this news we expect a DM easing to take hold at midyear but prove shallow. Next week, the FOMC should lean in this direction removing one easing from its dot plot and raising its r* estimate This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit...

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content  Strategy, discuss the February jobs report.     Speakers:Michael Feroli, Chief US EconomistSamantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4648073-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures...

The global expansion looks to be broadening with both sectoral and geographic growth gaps closing. Resilience fades recession risks but keeps inflation risks on the table. In a Goldilocks report this week, US job growth remained strong last month but came alongside a rise in the urate. The Fed and ECB signaled cuts are coming but remain cautious. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 8 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only....

Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies. The outlook had turned more favorable for the EM Edge, aided by macro adjustments and a supportive external environment. Since then, markets have priced out earlier easing by DM central banks. While some of the optimism may have been tempered, the evolving external narrative has not challenged our views. Central Bank reaction functions should continue to be guided by domestic growth/inflation, which...