This week displayed significant diversity in central bank actions amid a clear-cut positive signal from the data flow (DM PMIs and China activity). While central bank diversity is an important theme, the dominant signal for markets is the hawkish guidance delivered by Chair Powell and Governor Ueda. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 22 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit...

Michael Feroli joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the economic effects of surging US immigration. Immigration has soared over the last few years, profoundly affecting some of the widely-followed economic statistics. It’s been important to the surprising pace of job growth, even alongside a modestly increasing unemployment rate. This, in turn, has added to overall income and output growth. The increase in immigration probably hasn’t had a first order effect on inflation: immigrants add to labor...

The news flow supports our core views on growth resilience and core inflation stickiness as we turn into the new year. As central banks process this news we expect a DM easing to take hold at midyear but prove shallow. Next week, the FOMC should lean in this direction removing one easing from its dot plot and raising its r* estimate This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit...

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content  Strategy, discuss the February jobs report.     Speakers:Michael Feroli, Chief US EconomistSamantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2024.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4648073-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures...

The global expansion looks to be broadening with both sectoral and geographic growth gaps closing. Resilience fades recession risks but keeps inflation risks on the table. In a Goldilocks report this week, US job growth remained strong last month but came alongside a rise in the urate. The Fed and ECB signaled cuts are coming but remain cautious. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 8 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only....

Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies. The outlook had turned more favorable for the EM Edge, aided by macro adjustments and a supportive external environment. Since then, markets have priced out earlier easing by DM central banks. While some of the optimism may have been tempered, the evolving external narrative has not challenged our views. Central Bank reaction functions should continue to be guided by domestic growth/inflation, which...

This week’s activity reports suggest that global growth is resilient and forming a broader base as we start the new year. Inflation readings point to stickiness. Next week’s Powell testimony and ECB meeting should show these developments tempering but not derailing central bank confidence that inflation will continue to decline. This podcast was recorded on 1 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit...

Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the January global inflation report. Speakers:Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic and Policy Research Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy This podcast was recorded on 29 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4637818-0 for more...

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their takeaways from the global January CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and  monetary policy.    This podcast was recorded on February 27, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4637818-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures....

This week delivered an encouraging rise in Western European flash PMIs alongside signs that the Euro area consumer may be waking up. This is encouraging, but the survey also points to a structural malaise in German industry. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Michael Hanson This podcast was recorded on 23 February 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase &...

The upside surprises to January US inflation need to be viewed in the context of considerable seasonal noise. That said, there is growing evidence globally that a phase of sharply slowing goods price inflation is ending. And details of this week’s reports suggest that part of the gap that lowered core PCE inflation to a 2%ar will not persist. On the growth front, it is reasonable to see January as a month in which a strong run of US consumer spending gains is ending. There is no sign as yet...

We enter the new year with the US and global economies displaying healthy momentum amid widespread optimism that a substantial ease by DM central banks has been delayed but not deferred. The sustainability of this year’s significant rise in risk appetite hinges on the realization of sustained growth and easing, a development that will be challenged if expectations for another step-down in core inflation are not realized. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 9...

China economists Haibin Zhu and Grace Ng join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss China’s policy easing measures to stabilize growth. Using 2015-16 as a benchmark, a more modest scale of easing this time around reflects a shift in focus to high-quality growth, as well as more limited room for fiscal and monetary stimulus. To stabilize 2024 growth the government will need to step up policy efforts, including more forceful measures to stabilize the housing market. However, in order to address the...

Dan Silver joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for US core inflation and implications for the Fed.  The trend for core  inflation moderated in 2023 but the CPI and PCE measures sent differing signals about how close inflation was to target late last year. We expect core CPI run rates to slow to 2.9%ar in 1H24 alongside a modest firming in core PCE inflation to a still low 2.2%ar. If our forecast is correct, year-ago core PCE inflation could dip below 2.5% as soon as the February...

Insufficient clarity on the disinflation path along with surprising strength in the economy and labor market keeps the Fed wanting more data before cutting rates. The global industrial sector remains sluggish for now but got some positive news in the January surveys. Amid the talk of soft-landing versus recession, the odds of no-landing are rising. Whether strengthening demand comes with enough supply to keep inflation in check is unclear. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was...

Speakers:  Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy   Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the January jobs report.   This podcast was recorded on Feb. 2, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion...

The growth picture is mixed but on balance shows the expansion ending last year on solid footing. Robust US GDP growth along with a welcome move up in the January flash DM PMIs supports our call for trend-like growth last quarter and this quarter. Global inflation is sliding but core remains elevated around 3%ar. For the Fed next week, at-target inflation calls for an early start to rate cuts but strong growth suggests no need to rush. This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2024. This...

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the December CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and  monetary policy.  This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted,...

Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies. Optimism around a soft landing persist, which would be constructive overall for frontier markets. Disinflation along with easing global financial conditions and a weaker dollar should enable frontier central banks to breathe easier. Moreover, frontiers might benefit from easier access to external funding. Yet, interestingly, at this stage, key aspects of the story regarding inflation and monetary policy,...

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the recent shipping disruptions along the Suez and Panama Canals and the implications for global supply chains and inflation. We estimate the recent surge in container shipping costs––if they persist––could add 0.7%-pts to global core goods CPI (0.3%-pt to core). Most of that inflationary impulse is not likely to be felt until late 1Q or early 2Q, however, given lagged pass-through. If sustained, there could also be a hit to global industry on the...

A strong consumer supports another solid quarterly gain in US GDP, but China imbalances are a concern and global industry continues to struggle. Central banks are acknowledging progress on disinflation but push back against 1H24 rate cuts.  Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 19 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024...

This week’s main release – the US December CPI – aligns with our forecast that core inflation is stabilizing around a 3%ar as we turn into the new year. But the Fed’s target inflation indicator – core PCE – is running close to a 2%ar, fueling optimism about early easing. We continue to see the Fed remaining on hold through March and expect it to signal both progress and patience at the January FOMC meeting. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 12 January 2024....

As we turn into 2024, the global economy continues to display resilience as well as sustained divergence in performance across sectors and markets. While optimism runs high that DM core inflation has slipped well below 3% and opens the door for early easing, we do not look for the coming months to send a clear signal to central banks. With goods price deflation set to fade, it will take time before a rebalancing of labor markets and normalization in service price inflation will be...

Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the December jobs report. This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P....

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the November CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the near-term outlook for inflation and central banks.    This podcast was recorded on December 21, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4586495-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important...